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% Play??

MaryMugsMaryMugs Member Posts: 7
edited February 2012 in The Poker Clinic

I dont really tend to play % with my hands but im always hearing people talking about it but i dont really get it?? for example if i have 2 hearts and a flop comes another 2 hearts and someone raises or goes all in how can i fully work out 100% what my % is on winning with a flush when i dont know what hearts have already been folded by other players?

I mind sound daft here but if someone could explain it to me please cause for me it just seems to be an excuse for someone winning or a excuse for someone to moan about losing ie how can you call that!? your % or winning was so small lol

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  • Poker_FailPoker_Fail Member Posts: 1,755
    edited February 2012
    In Response to % Play??:
    I dont really tend to play % with my hands but im always hearing people talking about it but i dont really get it?? for example if i have 2 hearts and a flop comes another 2 hearts and someone raises or goes all in how can i fully work out 100% what my % is on winning with a flush when i dont know what hearts have already been folded by other players? I mind sound daft here but if someone could explain it to me please cause for me it just seems to be an excuse for someone winning or a excuse for someone to moan about losing ie how can you call that!? your % or winning was so small lol
    Posted by MaryMugs
    That is completely irrelevent.
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  • liamboi11liamboi11 Member Posts: 2,141
    edited February 2012
    In Response to % Play??:
    I dont really tend to play % with my hands but im always hearing people talking about it but i dont really get it?? for example if i have 2 hearts and a flop comes another 2 hearts and someone raises or goes all in how can i fully work out 100% what my % is on winning with a flush when i dont know what hearts have already been folded by other players? I mind sound daft here but if someone could explain it to me please cause for me it just seems to be an excuse for someone winning or a excuse for someone to moan about losing ie how can you call that!? your % or winning was so small lol
    Posted by MaryMugs
    download pokerstove its free and you can pick your hole cards,opponents also put cards on the flop,turn and will give you the percentages of winning the handhope this helps.
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited February 2012
    google: poker odds
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  • MaryMugsMaryMugs Member Posts: 7
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: % Play??:
    In Response to % Play?? : That is completely irrelevent.
    Posted by Poker_Fail
    elaborate please?
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  • MaryMugsMaryMugs Member Posts: 7
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: % Play??:
    In Response to % Play?? : download pokerstove its free and you can pick your hole cards,opponents also put cards on the flop,turn and will give you the percentages of winning the handhope this helps.
    Posted by liamboi11
    i'll try that, thanks
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  • penguin7penguin7 Member Posts: 1,095
    edited February 2012


    Examples

     AK  v pocket pair is 45%/55%

    Hitting a flush if you have four suited on flop 20%.+

    Hitting up and down str8 from flop 32%

    Some surprise new players too

    78 suited v AA    23%/77%

    45 suited v AK   23%/77%


    Pokerstove is useful, but you can never account for the cards folded by other players.
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  • Poker_FailPoker_Fail Member Posts: 1,755
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: % Play??:
    In Response to Re: % Play?? : elaborate please?
    Posted by MaryMugs
    I really struggle to explain things like these but here goes...

    Imagine you have a set of 10s on the turn and you want to know the chance that the river card will be the fourth 10, because you have no idea whether the 10 is in someone elses hand or still in the deck, it could be any one of the 46 cards you havn't seen (you've seen your 2 and 4 on the board so far) so you treat it as a 1 in 46 chance of happening.

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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited February 2012
    Yes, it's all about how many cards are unknown to you. If you can see four hearts, you know there are nine others. They could all be in the muck or they could be the next nine cards in the deck. We just lump all the cards in the muck, in our opponents hand and in the deck into one and call those the unknown cards. Then we work out the percentage odds of one of our cards coming out.

    An easy way to think about our odds is to simply consider each unkown card is worth 2%. It's not totally accurate, since after the flop we'll be aware of 5 cards, leaving 47 unknown, but it's the simple way and will get you close enough to the right odds to not be too concerned about the margin of error.
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited February 2012
    Example:

    We have 67 of hearts on a flop of Ace of hearts, 10 of hearts and the 3 of spades and our opponent has gone all-in.

    When we believe that our opponent has an Ace in their hand, we know that we need one of the nine hearts to make a flush and win the hand. With two cards yet to come on the board we can work out that each heart is worth 2%, so there is an 18% chance of a heart coming on the turn and another 18% chance of a heart coming on the river. We can add these up and say there is a 36% chance of another heart coming by the end of the hand.

    Remember those are approximate numbers but it's the easiest way to think about it.
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  • Poker_FailPoker_Fail Member Posts: 1,755
    edited February 2012
    In Response to Re: % Play??:
    Yes, it's all about how many cards are unknown to you. If you can see four hearts, you know there are nine others. They could all be in the muck or they could be the next nine cards in the deck. We just lump all the cards in the muck, in our opponents hand and in the deck into one and call those the unknown cards. Then we work out the percentage odds of one of our cards coming out. An easy way to think about our odds is to simply consider each unkown card is worth 2%. It's not totally accurate, since after the flop we'll be aware of 5 cards, leaving 47 unknown, but it's the simple way and will get you close enough to the right odds to not be too concerned about the margin of error.
    Posted by BorinLoner
    Thanks writing a much better explanation lol, i've always been able to understand maths and statistics etc but really struggle to explain it :/
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