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Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
mac12345 | Small blind | £0.05 | £0.05 | £8.39 | |
oswaldfich | Big blind | £0.10 | £0.15 | £4.95 | |
Your hole cards |
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DBCooper | Fold | ||||
cirrussx18 | Call | £0.10 | £0.25 | £6.34 | |
Arteta4 | Raise | £0.30 | £0.55 | £10.21 | |
flopparen | Fold | ||||
mac12345 | Call | £0.25 | £0.80 | £8.14 | |
oswaldfich | Call | £0.20 | £1.00 | £4.75 | |
cirrussx18 | Call | £0.20 | £1.20 | £6.14 | |
Flop | |||||
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mac12345 | Check | ||||
oswaldfich | All-in | £4.75 | £5.95 | £0.00 | |
cirrussx18 | Fold | ||||
Arteta4 | Call | £4.75 | £10.70 | £5.46 | |
mac12345 | All-in | £8.14 | £18.84 | £0.00 | |
Arteta4 | Call | £3.39 | £22.23 | £2.07 | |
mac12345 | Show |
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oswaldfich | Show |
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Arteta4 | Show |
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Turn | |||||
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River | |||||
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Arteta4 | Win | Straight to the 10 | £20.83 | £22.90 |
Comments
Definitely agree wth the shove on the flop now I think about it.
After three calls pre it's possible one has a set which makes you a 3-2 underdog but IMO you'll be up against worse often enough to make shove on the flop profitable.
Flop definitely shove if you are continuing, prob get it in but I dont think folding is that bad either
Now, as this hand played, the massive over-shove on the flop is very unusual and looks like a desperate attempt to win the pot right now. This usually signals a drawing hand or a marginal made hand like one-pair. Your hand might look like a massive drawing hand but we have to examine our outs. If we know that neither of our opponents has a higher flush draw, we have fifteen outs - nine spades and six straightening outs - against any made hand. The problem is that one of our opponents could easily be playing a higher flush-draw and this would reduce our outs to six straightening outs with possibly 6 pairing outs. With fifteen outs we're a favourite and with twelve we're an underdog. Now, as it happens we're up against two made hands, one of which is a set. The fact that it's a three-way all-in fouls up the odds a little, but as far as I know we're still the most likely of the three players to win this hand. I have to say though that I think it's more by luck than judgement that we are favourites.
I think that most of the time when we're making this call there's a good chance we'll see a better flush draw than our own, which means we'll be behind with 6 staightening outs and probably 6 pairing outs. When it's three handed we could easily see a better flush-draw and a made hand that kills our pairing outs.
With the call here, the best case scenario is that we go heads-up to showdown with 15 outs, as a favourite. The worst case is that we go three-handed to showdown with just 6 outs, and being a big underdog. Not being given the chance to be the aggressor on the flop has given us a pretty tough decision.
I think I'd fold this spot most of the time, having decided that I'm against a better flush-draw too often to make the call profitable in the long-run - Having a player in behind me, still to act, doesn't help but that player's unlikely to show up with a set too often. That could be argued to be a bit tight but I'd rather wait for a spot when I can really take advantage of someone like Oswaldfich who's donk-shoving into me. I'd be even happier to wait for a better spot if I knew he was making those shoves with 44.
Thanks all, really appreciate all the feedback and your time here.
Very interesting hand and I'l take each point on board.
Let's see if I get around to putting a second hand up on here :-)
Its hard to say the best thing to do, because normally in this spot with these hands, you are the one who would be calling and the guy with the 99s would be the last aggressor pre-flop. In that scenario you would check to the raiser and check raise IMO. You wouldn't want to bet out (but not go all in -eg 2/3s pot) as if they just call (they won't in this case with a set of 9s) your stuck with 7 high and your equity saturates (gets worse) by 9% to 31%. Check raising gives you a chance to turn your hand into a semi-bluff giving you a chance to win the hand on the flop. THis way you v all the c-bet hands that miss the flop and any hands like JJs QQs KKs etc that might call your check raise you are not in bad shape against either. Your extreme strength could make them nervous of two pair a set or the monster draw you have. Their hand suddenly becomes like a pocket pair vs two over cards where they are at best flipping but if you have flopped a set their equity is about 5% for hitting a set on the turn or the river.
In this situation you are the last aggressor but the problem you have is you don't have a reason to think they have anything when the cards come out. If they check behind its a disaster for you. Personally I would just bet out 3/4s of the pot and hope that either everyone folds or someone goes all in. If I have a draw like that, I don't want to have money behind both the players on the turn because my equity is drying out.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JLFH0-MvqPs
In your own time, check out this video from the Big Game. Its Dani Stern doing a semi bluff with similar situation. See how he plays it and be inspired.
Overall though, I am never folding a straight and flush draw. Perhaps I am a fish lol
You are quite right though; Against a set with 15 outs we are a 40% dog, not a favourite. My mistake.
The decision might depend on lot of things like how big their roll is. How much would be in the pot at the end etc. Its very border line. I think either is acceptable although what is the guy with the 4s doing?
Thanks, that was an interesting video, and I can see how that pot could have been played if I was first to act.
Very well thought out.