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What are the odds of this happening.

apollo_11apollo_11 Member Posts: 969
edited November 2009 in Poker Chat
This hand happened during the Forum Deepstack tournament on Tuesday evening.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
BANDICOOT Small blind  600.00 600.00 23115.00
drumbeat99 Big blind  1200.00 1800.00 40080.00
  Your hole cards
  • K
  • K
     
epwb Fold     
Alarm76 Fold     
apollo_11 Raise  7200.00 9000.00 27290.00
Grimstar30 Fold     
MrMagooo Fold     
Uzi_lover Fold     
BANDICOOT All-in  23115.00 32115.00 0.00
drumbeat99 Fold     
apollo_11 Call  16515.00 48630.00 10775.00
BANDICOOT Show
  • A
  • A
   
apollo_11 Show
  • K
  • K
   
Flop
   
  • 5
  • 9
  • 2
     
Turn
   
  • 8
     
River
   
  • 10
     
apollo_11 Win Flush to the 10 24315.00  35090.00
BANDICOOT Win Flush to the 10 24315.00  24315.00
I got very lucky, but the odds of this happening must be very high.
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    BANDICOOTBANDICOOT Member Posts: 675
    edited November 2009
    That was very much a 'wow' type of hand wasn't it!
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    apollo_11apollo_11 Member Posts: 969
    edited November 2009
    It certainly was.
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    TalonTalon Member Posts: 1,621
    edited November 2009
     Seeing as though the other 3 suits were covered, and the table was 8 handed.  And assuming no clubs were in other hole cards.
    1st card 13/36
    2nd card 12/35
    3rd card 11/34
    4th card 10/33
    5th card 9/32
      this gives the odds by my reckoning as 1 in 292.92   or roughly 292/1

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    apollo_11apollo_11 Member Posts: 969
    edited November 2009
    Thanks Talon. I did expect the odds to be a lot higher.
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    TalonTalon Member Posts: 1,621
    edited November 2009
      They could be depending on the hole cards that were not seen.  And i also expected them to be higher. Not odds i would like to back but not the rarest ever either
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    apollo_11apollo_11 Member Posts: 969
    edited November 2009
    This is the first time I have seen a flush on the board against two pocket pairs.
    I have seen a strait on the board a few times against them.
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    MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
      They could be depending on the hole cards that were not seen.  And i also expected them to be higher. Not odds i would like to back but not the rarest ever either
    Posted by Talon
    With only two hands known, and not making assumptions about the hole cards of anyone else at the table, the odds are:

    13/48*12/47*11/46*10/45*9/44 which is 1329/1.
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    scrumdownscrumdown Member Posts: 1,609
    edited November 2009
    u was  very  lucky there  apollo
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    chirkerchirker Member Posts: 160
    edited November 2009
    MUST HAVE BEEN A BIG SIGH OF RELIEF , IT'S NOT SOMETHING YOU SEE EVERYDAY. 
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    loonytoonsloonytoons Member Posts: 4,270
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
     Seeing as though the other 3 suits were covered, and the table was 8 handed.  And assuming no clubs were in other hole cards. 1st card 13/36 2nd card 12/35 3rd card 11/34 4th card 10/33 5th card 9/32   this gives the odds by my reckoning as 1 in 292.92   or roughly 292/1
    Posted by Talon
    Thats not very high, with those odds this thing must happen every 2 minutes so how come ive only seen this sort of thing very rarely
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    TalonTalon Member Posts: 1,621
    edited November 2009
      The reason the odds are not that high are because we know that it was an 8 handed table, and i based the odds on none of the other 6 players on the table having a club. The more clubs that have been mucked the higher the odds go.

      The other things to consider about odds is the fact that they are defied every single hand. Every time you see a flop or turn or river, the chances of it being the cards you see are high. Take the turn card 8c, the chance of that card turning up were 32/1, but then again whatever card turned up would have been 32/1. So we see odds defying cards turn up all the time but we only ever notice them when they make or break our hands
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    loonytoonsloonytoons Member Posts: 4,270
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
      The reason the odds are not that high are because we know that it was an 8 handed table, and i based the odds on none of the other 6 players on the table having a club. The more clubs that have been mucked the higher the odds go.   The other things to consider about odds is the fact that they are defied every single hand. Every time you see a flop or turn or river, the chances of it being the cards you see are high. Take the turn card 8c, the chance of that card turning up were 32/1, but then again whatever card turned up would have been 32/1. So we see odds defying cards turn up all the time but we only ever notice them when they make or break our hands
    Posted by Talon
    Whats the odds of no other player having a club?? impress me
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    MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening. : Whats the odds of no other player having a club?? impress me
    Posted by loonytoons
    The odds of none of the other 6 players having a club in their hole cards are:
    35/48*34/47*33/46*32/45*31/44*30/43*29/42*28/41*27/40*26/39*25/38*24/37 = 82 to 1.

    This is calculated on the following basis:
    There are 12 other cards that must not be clubs.
    For the first card, there are 48 remaining cards that are not known of which 35 are not clubs and the numbers decrease by 1 for each subsequent card.

    These are the odds before any of the community cards are dealt.
    Once the community cards are dealt, the odds are significantly shorter because, obviously, 5 of the clubs are known.
    I can give you the odds on that if you are really interested.
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    loonytoonsloonytoons Member Posts: 4,270
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening. : The odds of none of the other 6 players having a club in their hole cards are: 35/48*34/47*33/46*32/45*31/44*30/43*29/42*28/41*27/40*26/39*25/38*24/37 = 82 to 1 . This is calculated on the following basis: There are 12 other cards that must not be clubs. For the first card, there are 48 remaining cards that are not known of which 35 are not clubs and the numbers decrease by 1 for each subsequent card.
    Posted by MereNovice
    YOU HAVE SOOOO IMPRESSED ME. Your not just a pretty face eh donkey?
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    MereNoviceMereNovice Member Posts: 4,364
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening. : YOU HAVE SOOOO IMPRESSED ME. You're not just a pretty face eh donkey?
    Posted by loonytoons
    Many would say "not even".
    I just thought that I'd get that one in first.
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    TalonTalon Member Posts: 1,621
    edited November 2009
      Let me see  8 handed 4 cards known, so 48 to deal with and 13 clubs available.Not asllowing for the cards we know will come down on the board.

    P1 35/48 and 34/47
    P2 33/46 and 32/45
    P3 31/44 and 30/43
    P4 29/42 and 28/41
    p5 27/40 and 26/39
    p6 25/38 and 24/37


      I make that approximately 1 in 83 so an 82/1 shot
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    TalonTalon Member Posts: 1,621
    edited November 2009
      Well done you got it worked out and put up while i was calculating it
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    BANDICOOTBANDICOOT Member Posts: 675
    edited November 2009
    please guys i cant take it anymore, i had AA for christs sake !  surely anyone knows i should have won, im going to sulk for ever, everyone else has AA hold up al the time (sulk) why me (sulk) what have i done wrong (sulk)


    only kidding .. was great enterainment and the chat box nearly blew a fuse. 
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    loonytoonsloonytoons Member Posts: 4,270
    edited November 2009
    In Response to Re: What are the odds of this happening.:
      Well done you got it worked out and put up while i was calculating it
    Posted by Talon
    Yeh right,we all believe you lol. Me thinks you copied merenovice to impress me, im soooooo not impressed lol
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    apollo_11apollo_11 Member Posts: 969
    edited November 2009
    I had K K and should have hit my K to crack the A's, Well that is what normally happens anyway.
    I think I will go and sulk as well.

    The chat box was on fire that night.
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