please help me, am i looking at this game all wrong? the latest hand i am beat with, i raise AQh re-raised i flat flop Qs 8h 2h i check, he bets, i shove , he snaps 77 no heart of course i lose, turn 7, but how does he call ??? maybe i am the only person to fold 77 there? Posted by FORDAKIDZ
Hey Fordakidz. Yes I think you are looking at the game wrong:
1) The maths of expectation and hope.
Look at it this way. Take another situation where we see the cards flipped up and we see we are miles behind, for instance we have Kings and out opponent has aces. Now at this point we expect to mostly lose but expect to sometimes win and hope it's this time. Flip reverse and we have the aces, our psychology is such that we expect to win. End of. As rational as we can be in the cold hard analysis of the information after the fact or in hypotheticals such as this, in game we cannot help but to expect to win. Every single time. Why? Because we are ahead, so surely we should stay ahead. Yet when we are behind we expect to sometimes win. We hope it's this time, every time. Now the expectation to hold 100% of the time cannot mathematically live in the same universe as the world where we have expectation to sometimes win, we are not mathematically special that this can happen to us and no one else.
It's not easy, hardwiring your brain for the expectation of losing even though we have done everything right in a hand. It something every player, including myself, struggles with. I recently bought a book called 'The Mental Game of Poker' by Tendler and Carter. Now I admit it's presently gathering dust on my bookcase after only the first half chapter being read, but I have read exerts of it elsewhere and it comes highly recommended by a lot of other people. It might be worth a little look for you.
2) This hand
Putting myself in the mind of your opponent in this hand, it's clear very early on in the action he has put you on a range with lots of big aces in it, hence his calling your 3bet with a middle pair. Now people in general don't like to fold a pair, and now on the flop he might be creating two reasons to think he's ahead as he sees it. You've jammed on a two heart board (he must have a flush draw, 7s are ahead) to go along with 'I thought he might have AK, AJ pre, he's trying to bluff be off with his jam, my 7s are ahead). That could be how he has found the call.
You're correct, a lot of people fold sevens there. A lot of people call with sevens there. Neither action is correct 100% or wrong 100% of the time. There are so many other factors to consider (how aggressive you've been playing, how aggressive he's been playing etc) to help us find which is the correct play in each individual scenario.
3) You want this call. Sometimes (around 7 in a hundred) you will lose. Even though you expect to win sometimes you will lose. However the probability of you winning is much greater. You want that call, do not see it as a bad thing.
Ok, time for UKOPS 3. Double stacks, yay! Plenty of room for donk maneuver, yay! Music cued up (tonight we have Radiohead, Nine Inch Nails, Mansun, Marilyn Manson, Pulp - maximum tunage). Let's get donking shall we? Posted by TommyD
Just caught up with the thread and a great read as always, have had internet connection issues or lack of.! Great tunage! and with obviously such a great music ear, i would hope and/or recomend The Stone Temple Pilots are also on your ipod or (in my case) CD(remember those?).Good tunes and good luck.
In Response to Re: Many Rivers To Cross. A Diary. : Hey Fordakidz. Yes I think you are looking at the game wrong: 1) The maths of expectation and hope. Look at it this way. Take another situation where we see the cards flipped up and we see we are miles behind, for instance we have Kings and out opponent has aces. Now at this point we expect to mostly lose but expect to sometimes win and hope it's this time. Flip reverse and we have the aces, our psychology is such that we expect to win. End of. As rational as we can be in the cold hard analysis of the information after the fact or in hypotheticals such as this, in game we cannot help but to expect to win. Every single time. Why? Because we are ahead, so surely we should stay ahead. Yet when we are behind we expect to sometimes win. We hope it's this time, every time. Now the expectation to hold 100% of the time cannot mathematically live in the same universe as the world where we have expectation to sometimes win, we are not mathematically special that this can happen to us and no one else. It's not easy, hardwiring your brain for the expectation of losing even though we have done everything right in a hand. It something every player, including myself, struggles with. I recently bought a book called 'The Mental Game of Poker' by Tendler and Carter. Now I admit it's presently gathering dust on my bookcase after only the first half chapter being read, but I have read exerts of it elsewhere and it comes highly recommended by a lot of other people. It might be worth a little look for you. 2) This hand Putting myself in the mind of your opponent in this hand, it's clear very early on in the action he has put you on a range with lots of big aces in it, hence his calling your 3bet with a middle pair. Now people in general don't like to fold a pair, and now on the flop he might be creating two reasons to think he's ahead as he sees it. You've jammed on a two heart board (he must have a flush draw, 7s are ahead) to go along with 'I thought he might have AK, AJ pre, he's trying to bluff be off with his jam, my 7s are ahead). That could be how he has found the call. You're correct, a lot of people fold sevens there. A lot of people call with sevens there. Neither action is correct 100% or wrong 100% of the time. There are so many other factors to consider (how aggressive you've been playing, how aggressive he's been playing etc) to help us find which is the correct play in each individual scenario. 3) You want this call. Sometimes (around 7 in a hundred) you will lose. Even though you expect to win sometimes you will lose. However the probability of you winning is much greater. You want that call, do not see it as a bad thing. I hope this helps Posted by TommyD
Have you considered going into teaching? I think you would be good at it.
I like the "expectation v hope" thoughts. Too late to give a balanced reply/analysis tonite BUT can't help thinking that when I read your excellent reply you had too many expects and too few hopes for MY liking? e.g. Expects won 5-2 I think?
I know it's a VERY fine line & I suppose it depends if one is a glass half empty/full person BUT I've always found it's WAYY much better to hope than expect. Hope, more often than not, brings happiness. Expectation, more often than not, brings unhappiness. I'm rambling now............
I like the "expectation v hope" thoughts. Too late to give a balanced reply/analysis tonite BUT can't help thinking that when I read your excellent reply you had too many expects and too few hopes for MY liking? e.g. Expects won 5-2 I think? I know it's a VERY fine line & I suppose it depends if one is a glass half empty/full person BUT I've always found it's WAYY much better to hope than expect. Hope, more often than not, brings happiness. Expectation, more often than not, brings unhappiness. I'm rambling now............ Posted by Glenelg
Taking this into a turn for philosophy Pad. Before going on to hope the reason why there were more expects than hopes is for half the time in my example we are ahead. Our reaction isn't to hope to hold, it's to expect to hold (I'm talking subconscious expectation which affects our tilt, no the very vocal way some people shout one time or 'I never hold here').
Outside poker, hope is a beautiful thing. When it comes to half full/half empty I'm very much half full. The GF's response to is the glass half full or half empty is 'what glass' I will say one thing though, I love the John Cleese line 'I don't might the despair, it's the hope I can't cope with.' And now we're back to expectation.
In Response to Re: Many Rivers To Cross. A Diary. : Just caught up with the thread and a great read as always, have had internet connection issues or lack of.! Great tunage! and with obviously such a great music ear, i would hope and/or recomend The Stone Temple Pilots are also on your ipod or (in my case) CD(remember those?).Good tunes and good luck. Posted by Any2Suited
Cheers Any2
Yeah of course I remember The Stone Temple Pilots. Think I have their CDs somewhere in one of my many CD boxes yet to be unpacked, must dig them out tomorrow. I'm currently rediscovering some CDs I haven't listened to for ages. At the moment I'm on The Cooper Temple Clause, Sunhouse (short lived Folk Rock band who are best known for the soundtrack to Shane Meadow's first full feature, 24/7, a film well worth checking out IMO) and the best of Frankie Goes to Hollywood. I kid you not, look beyond Relax and Two Tribes and there are some tunes there.
I can sum it up with the scene from Chariots of Fire where Ben Cross sits in the dressing room, sullen, detailing what's gone wrong in every event so far just before his blue ribbon event. That's pretty much where I am. I haven't been able to play the last two nights (still mixed feelings on skipping the High Roller). I'm already in for tonight and the main tomorrow. Time to find the gears.
Sigh, my Sunday league football game has just been cancelled. For a little bit of rain. Apparently the two refs at the ground today decided to abandon it in record time but then again I wouldn't fancy 90 minutes being told I was wrong all of the time and get soaking wet as well.
So what do people do on a Sunday morning? Seriously, I feel massively out of place right now.
Ok, time for one last push to get something out of this UKOPS series. Odds are against but you never know. To get my mind focused, intense, hyped up and hungry for action I have decided to start by watching this video.
I know you like your films Tommy and I saw it today so... have you seen Skyfall yet and what did you think? Just posted my thoughts on it in my diary. Posted by Lambert180
I saw the start of your thoughts on SkyFall mate but I stopped reading there. I haven't seen it yet and I am avoiding spoilers. Yes I know I'm making a rod for my own back by leaving it this late but I just haven't gotten around to it yet. I'm becoming a bit of a cinema fuddy duddy and other patrons are really beginning to annoy me for films I really want to see. Dark Knight Rises was ruined for me by some fellow patrons and I'm waiting for the buzz to die down a bit. The downside to this is while I end up going to a showing with only a few people in the multiplex normally ends up leaving the house lights up a bit or having sound issues not fixed. The lack of dedicated projectionists in every theatre for every showing annoys me, a film needs to be nursed through a showing, not stuck on like a DVD at a kids party.
A successful but frustrating poker session last night. I don't know if it's a hang over from the UKOPS/King of Cash promo but every cash table I went on seemed to be super tight. Well known laggy players who I respect greatly were playing less hands than a nun playing her case buy in. I normally just continue to bumble away on such tables and take a fair few liberties but it just all felt like a grind. So I hit the hay early because tonight is going to be a big night.
Why? Well tonight I will be mostly playing poker and watching the U.S. election. I've had my mind warped by the News Media. They have so been constantly banging on that this is 'too close to call' that I'm starting to believe it. While I think the popular vote will be close nationwide, I think those key states are staying with Barry O. Either way, the American's put on one heck of a show and it should be good popcorn viewing.
Morning Tommy. Any idea who won last night's Sky Poker Main Event? PS - Congrats! Posted by Tikay10
TYVM Mr K
It's funny how MTTs run, I had a lovely bink just before UKOPS and this two days after. In between when I was really hoping to kick on, not a sausage. You can't pick when you run good in MTTS, all you can do is just play as well as you can and see when it comes together.
Last night was one of those beautiful nights when everything came together. Most decent MTT players will occasionally have that tourney where everything is just so simple, it's like you can see everyone's cards, you're in complete control and mentally totally relaxed. It's wonderful when you hit that perfect mood and I just enjoy it as they don't come around often.
Thanks to all you lovely people who railed me again as well, always a lovely crowd
Hit a purple patch in the MTTs lately. The most ridiculous being Sunday night when I came back from being down to 8.5 chippies at the start of level 2 in the 9pm £110 BHer to go on to finish second. The greed for the bounty fuelled the spin up, and of course running like Mr Bolt all of a sudden.
Strange tonight. The result is I FTed both the main and the £110 BHer, making a little over a grand in the process. The other way of looking at it is I held the chip lead on both FTs at one time and finished 4th in both. I think I'm maturing as a player and a person though. In the old days I would be cursing not taking at least one of them down. Right now while there is a pinch of annoyance, I'm much colder at looking at the results. First up, in the 9pm I got silly lucky in a few spots in the middle part of the tournament. Run good kicked in. Also I butchered my exit hand. I noticed a clear betting tell as obvious as a tanning salon deciding to open in Newcastle but I still plundered my stack in the middle, ignoring what I had seen. Over in the main, just a cooler. 2nd in chips I 4bet with Kings and get a call from the chip leader. A 7 high flop leads me to shove and I get shown AKs. One over and the NFD, we're basically flipping and I lost the flip.
Haven't done a full review yet but right now I'm thinking in the main, played pretty good. In the 9pm, engaged the box of luck. They don't put an asterisk on the money though, value is always the same. I'm just going to enjoy the hot run as I always do, they never last but then again they never leave for good when they go.
Outside of poker, I had a genuine reason to shout 'Sort it out Sky!' earlier. Before anyone rushes to tell me to contact customer care I'm talking about the Satelite TV wing of the corporate behemoth, more specifically the installation department. Long time readers will know I moved into a lovely new place earlier in the year. We had a very pleasant gentleman come round to hook up Sky TV. Nice guy, apart from after being offered tea and biscuits deciding to make four trips to the biscuit barrel. They were chocy ones as well. I had to be restrained.
That was back in the early summer and the thing about that time of the year is you don't get too much constant rain usuallyl. The thing about Autumn and Winter is you get plenty. The mini-dish is fixed to the outside wall of my office (The Grindatorium). Imagine my surprise when I see water running down inside the painted lining paper and the corner of the wall, then bulging pregnant near the floor spreading its way across. After spending plenty of time checking the roof, ceiling etc my attention finally turned to the mini-dish. My friend with a sweet tooth had total success with three of the holes to bolt the dish on with. The fourth, well not so much. The hole is caverness to the point that the bolt isn't touching the sides and provides less purpose than an Off Licence in Qatar. To make matters worse with no rawl-plug in there for some reason the hole has become a funnel. Water's been collecting and working its way through the brickwork.
Big sigh, the place only got decorated a month ago and now some touch ups need to be done. Sky are sending their 'field inspector.' round soon. Now I think that these things happen and I'm not that annoyed about it. As long as we get some sort of apology and fair compensation for fixing it I'll be cool. Then there is the expectation of the GF. Her expectation is somewhere in the region of free Sky TV for life and an airplane trailing a 'We're So Sorry' banner in the air over the house for about a week. She's constantly been prepping me with 'haggling training' for a couple of days. Well I say prepping, in reality she's been constantly changing the conversation with no warning to reminding me to 'be firm,' 'be really firm' and 'be really really firm.' I think nothing of spewing on the poker table but turning the screws to get all I can out of this sort of spot is alien to me. I can see me folding like a cheap suit now, my attempt at haggling will probably end up with subscribing to another package and costing me more money. I am seriously thinking of ordering apology flowers for the GF right now just to save some time. Sigh.
Outside of poker, I had a genuine reason to shout 'Sort it out Sky!' earlier. Before anyone rushes to tell me to contact customer care I'm talking about the Satelite TV wing of the corporate behemoth, more specifically the installation department. Long time readers will know I moved into a lovely new place earlier in the year. We had a very pleasant gentleman come round to hook up Sky TV. Nice guy, apart from after being offered tea and biscuits deciding to make four trips to the biscuit barrel. They were chocy ones as well. I had to be restrained. That was back in the early summer and the thing about that time of the year is you don't get too much constant rain usuallyl. The thing about Autumn and Winter is you get plenty. The mini-dish is fixed to the outside wall of my office (The Grindatorium). Imagine my surprise when I see water running down inside the painted lining paper and the corner of the wall, then bulging pregnant near the floor spreading its way across. After spending plenty of time checking the roof, ceiling etc my attention finally turned to the mini-dish. My friend with a sweet tooth had total success with three of the holes to bolt the dish on with. The fourth, well not so much. The hole is caverness to the point that the bolt isn't touching the sides and provides less purpose than an Off Licence in Qatar. To make matters worse with no rawl-plug in there for some reason the hole has become a funnel. Water's been collecting and working its way through the brickwork. Big sigh, the place only got decorated a month ago and now some touch ups need to be done. Sky are sending their 'field inspector.' round soon. Now I think that these things happen and I'm not that annoyed about it. As long as we get some sort of apology and fair compensation for fixing it I'll be cool. Then there is the expectation of the GF. Her expectation is somewhere in the region of free Sky TV for life and an airplane trailing a 'We're So Sorry' banner in the air over the house for about a week. She's constantly been prepping me with 'haggling training' for a couple of days. Well I say prepping, in reality she's been constantly changing the conversation with no warning to reminding me to 'be firm,' 'be really firm' and 'be really really firm.' I think nothing of spewing on the poker table but turning the screws to get all I can out of this sort of spot is alien to me. I can see me folding like a cheap suit now, my attempt at haggling will probably end up with subscribing to another package and costing me more money. I am seriously thinking of ordering apology flowers for the GF right now just to save some time. Sigh. Posted by TommyD
I wouldn't hold your breath for the field inspector. Similar situation happened to my friend he phoned CS and was overjoyed that he'd receive a visit within 48 hours. He took the day off work, waited in all day but no-one came. Slightly annoyed he phoned CS who apologised and gave him another date. The date was confirmed on his answer phone the following day. He took another day off work, waited in and no-one came again. He phoned CS who told him It was his mistake. even after replaying the ansaphone message, he was still made to feel it was all his fault. Two weeks later the engineer arrived, sorted the problem in minutes. Then said he would have come earlier but he'd been told to concentrate on new installations. My mate was not a happy bunny! but that was ten months ago and his set up is now perfect! Sadly, he didn't receive any compensation nor apology from CS
Comments
1) The maths of expectation and hope.
Look at it this way. Take another situation where we see the cards flipped up and we see we are miles behind, for instance we have Kings and out opponent has aces. Now at this point we expect to mostly lose but expect to sometimes win and hope it's this time. Flip reverse and we have the aces, our psychology is such that we expect to win. End of. As rational as we can be in the cold hard analysis of the information after the fact or in hypotheticals such as this, in game we cannot help but to expect to win. Every single time. Why? Because we are ahead, so surely we should stay ahead. Yet when we are behind we expect to sometimes win. We hope it's this time, every time. Now the expectation to hold 100% of the time cannot mathematically live in the same universe as the world where we have expectation to sometimes win, we are not mathematically special that this can happen to us and no one else.
It's not easy, hardwiring your brain for the expectation of losing even though we have done everything right in a hand. It something every player, including myself, struggles with. I recently bought a book called 'The Mental Game of Poker' by Tendler and Carter. Now I admit it's presently gathering dust on my bookcase after only the first half chapter being read, but I have read exerts of it elsewhere and it comes highly recommended by a lot of other people. It might be worth a little look for you.
2) This hand
Putting myself in the mind of your opponent in this hand, it's clear very early on in the action he has put you on a range with lots of big aces in it, hence his calling your 3bet with a middle pair. Now people in general don't like to fold a pair, and now on the flop he might be creating two reasons to think he's ahead as he sees it. You've jammed on a two heart board (he must have a flush draw, 7s are ahead) to go along with 'I thought he might have AK, AJ pre, he's trying to bluff be off with his jam, my 7s are ahead). That could be how he has found the call.
You're correct, a lot of people fold sevens there. A lot of people call with sevens there. Neither action is correct 100% or wrong 100% of the time. There are so many other factors to consider (how aggressive you've been playing, how aggressive he's been playing etc) to help us find which is the correct play in each individual scenario.
3) You want this call. Sometimes (around 7 in a hundred) you will lose. Even though you expect to win sometimes you will lose. However the probability of you winning is much greater. You want that call, do not see it as a bad thing.
I hope this helps
Outside poker, hope is a beautiful thing. When it comes to half full/half empty I'm very much half full. The GF's response to is the glass half full or half empty is 'what glass' I will say one thing though, I love the John Cleese line 'I don't might the despair, it's the hope I can't cope with.' And now we're back to expectation.
Yeah of course I remember The Stone Temple Pilots. Think I have their CDs somewhere in one of my many CD boxes yet to be unpacked, must dig them out tomorrow. I'm currently rediscovering some CDs I haven't listened to for ages. At the moment I'm on The Cooper Temple Clause, Sunhouse (short lived Folk Rock band who are best known for the soundtrack to Shane Meadow's first full feature, 24/7, a film well worth checking out IMO) and the best of Frankie Goes to Hollywood. I kid you not, look beyond Relax and Two Tribes and there are some tunes there.
I can sum it up with the scene from Chariots of Fire where Ben Cross sits in the dressing room, sullen, detailing what's gone wrong in every event so far just before his blue ribbon event. That's pretty much where I am. I haven't been able to play the last two nights (still mixed feelings on skipping the High Roller). I'm already in for tonight and the main tomorrow. Time to find the gears.
So what do people do on a Sunday morning? Seriously, I feel massively out of place right now.
LOVE that line.,.....
"....hope is a beautiful thing....."
We are so blessed in life, if we did but know it.
Bruce Lee's in it
I love the dancing ducks myself.
Yup, I'm definitely getting old.
Why? Well tonight I will be mostly playing poker and watching the U.S. election. I've had my mind warped by the News Media. They have so been constantly banging on that this is 'too close to call' that I'm starting to believe it. While I think the popular vote will be close nationwide, I think those key states are staying with Barry O. Either way, the American's put on one heck of a show and it should be good popcorn viewing.
Morning Tommy.
Any idea who won last night's Sky Poker Main Event?
PS - Congrats!
It's funny how MTTs run, I had a lovely bink just before UKOPS and this two days after. In between when I was really hoping to kick on, not a sausage. You can't pick when you run good in MTTS, all you can do is just play as well as you can and see when it comes together.
Last night was one of those beautiful nights when everything came together. Most decent MTT players will occasionally have that tourney where everything is just so simple, it's like you can see everyone's cards, you're in complete control and mentally totally relaxed. It's wonderful when you hit that perfect mood and I just enjoy it as they don't come around often.
Thanks to all you lovely people who railed me again as well, always a lovely crowd
Hit a purple patch in the MTTs lately. The most ridiculous being Sunday night when I came back from being down to 8.5 chippies at the start of level 2 in the 9pm £110 BHer to go on to finish second. The greed for the bounty fuelled the spin up, and of course running like Mr Bolt all of a sudden.
Strange tonight. The result is I FTed both the main and the £110 BHer, making a little over a grand in the process. The other way of looking at it is I held the chip lead on both FTs at one time and finished 4th in both. I think I'm maturing as a player and a person though. In the old days I would be cursing not taking at least one of them down. Right now while there is a pinch of annoyance, I'm much colder at looking at the results. First up, in the 9pm I got silly lucky in a few spots in the middle part of the tournament. Run good kicked in. Also I butchered my exit hand. I noticed a clear betting tell as obvious as a tanning salon deciding to open in Newcastle but I still plundered my stack in the middle, ignoring what I had seen. Over in the main, just a cooler. 2nd in chips I 4bet with Kings and get a call from the chip leader. A 7 high flop leads me to shove and I get shown AKs. One over and the NFD, we're basically flipping and I lost the flip.
Haven't done a full review yet but right now I'm thinking in the main, played pretty good. In the 9pm, engaged the box of luck. They don't put an asterisk on the money though, value is always the same. I'm just going to enjoy the hot run as I always do, they never last but then again they never leave for good when they go.
That was back in the early summer and the thing about that time of the year is you don't get too much constant rain usuallyl. The thing about Autumn and Winter is you get plenty. The mini-dish is fixed to the outside wall of my office (The Grindatorium). Imagine my surprise when I see water running down inside the painted lining paper and the corner of the wall, then bulging pregnant near the floor spreading its way across. After spending plenty of time checking the roof, ceiling etc my attention finally turned to the mini-dish. My friend with a sweet tooth had total success with three of the holes to bolt the dish on with. The fourth, well not so much. The hole is caverness to the point that the bolt isn't touching the sides and provides less purpose than an Off Licence in Qatar. To make matters worse with no rawl-plug in there for some reason the hole has become a funnel. Water's been collecting and working its way through the brickwork.
Big sigh, the place only got decorated a month ago and now some touch ups need to be done. Sky are sending their 'field inspector.' round soon. Now I think that these things happen and I'm not that annoyed about it. As long as we get some sort of apology and fair compensation for fixing it I'll be cool. Then there is the expectation of the GF. Her expectation is somewhere in the region of free Sky TV for life and an airplane trailing a 'We're So Sorry' banner in the air over the house for about a week. She's constantly been prepping me with 'haggling training' for a couple of days. Well I say prepping, in reality she's been constantly changing the conversation with no warning to reminding me to 'be firm,' 'be really firm' and 'be really really firm.' I think nothing of spewing on the poker table but turning the screws to get all I can out of this sort of spot is alien to me. I can see me folding like a cheap suit now, my attempt at haggling will probably end up with subscribing to another package and costing me more money. I am seriously thinking of ordering apology flowers for the GF right now just to save some time. Sigh.
Similar situation happened to my friend he phoned CS and was overjoyed that he'd receive a visit within 48 hours.
He took the day off work, waited in all day but no-one came.
Slightly annoyed he phoned CS who apologised and gave him another date.
The date was confirmed on his answer phone the following day.
He took another day off work, waited in and no-one came again. He phoned CS who told him It was his mistake. even after replaying the ansaphone message, he was still made to feel it was all his fault.
Two weeks later the engineer arrived, sorted the problem in minutes. Then said he would have come earlier but he'd been told to concentrate on new installations.
My mate was not a happy bunny! but that was ten months ago and his set up is now perfect!
Sadly, he didn't receive any compensation nor apology from CS