You clearly sturggle with the mental side of poker so why do something that will not improve that side, been reading Jarad Tendler's book (as I know you have also) and it says bad beats hurt more because it's a build of of loads of beats so you feel angry from previous beats plus the one you just had.
Doing this challenge will only make you hold on to those bad feelings even more and in your position that could be VERY bad.
You've 'proven' yourself to be an 'unlucky' player, what now? Your clearly not going to give the game up, you've been saying you will for some time now.
Suggestions: STOP PLAYING SATS TO BIG EVENTS, start using appropriate bankroll management for the fields you are playing, I would recommend with your history that 200 buy ins is needed for MTTs, at least 50 buy ins for cash. Be honest about your mistakes, if it would just a cooler don't beat yourself up about how you played it, conversly if you won a hand but played it badly then just admit it.
If you want to make this a more worthwhile experiment.
What you need to be doing is not worrying about the winning or losing of these flips(because in the long run odds will stay true) but analysing the situations in all of these flips.
Asking yourself questions like Should i have been risking it all on a flip here? Could i have played the hand differently or better?
The winning or losing is almost irrelevant compared to the necessity to analyse the situation and your motives behind your moves.
plus 1 to what talon said. Asking yourself questions like Should i have been risking it all on a flip here? Could i have played the hand differently or better?
You clearly sturggle with the mental side of poker so why do something that will not improve that side, been reading Jarad Tendler's book (as I know you have also) and it says bad beats hurt more because it's a build of of loads of beats so you feel angry from previous beats plus the one you just had. Doing this challenge will only make you hold on to those bad feelings even more and in your position that could be VERY bad. Posted by Dudeskin8
Dont see why he would need a massive sample to see how he is running, if he is just measuring flips. He just has to adjust his maths to the sample size, although running really bad over 1 million hands is obv much worse than over 100 hands. But if we go to 10 million flips we wont suddenly magically have exactly 5million wins and 5million losses
For example if he wins 40 or less flips out of 100 this has a probability of <2.5%. Thats running bad imo, although over a small sample. Out of 1000 he has ~2.5% chance of winning less than 470. Why knowing that you are running bad/good would be any use is beyond me.
Disclaimer:Math may be wrong, will explain it if anyone thinks it is and I am assuming flips are exactly 50/50 which obv isnt the case
Agree with everyone that doing this is a bad idea Dont see why he would need a massive sample to see how he is running, if he is just measuring flips. He just has to adjust his maths to the sample size, although running really bad over 1 million hands is obv much worse than over 100 hands. But if we go to 10 million flips we wont suddenly magically have exactly 5million wins and 5million losses For example if he wins 40 or less flips out of 100 this has a probability of <2.5%. Thats running bad imo, although over a small sample. Out of 1000 he has ~2.5% chance of winning less than 470. Why knowing that you are running bad/good would be any use is beyond me. Disclaimer:Math may be wrong, will explain it if anyone thinks it is and I am assuming flips are exactly 50/50 which obv isnt the case Posted by grantorino
I agree thnking about it but i really want to prove to myself i just forget the ones i win. I reset the stats the other day and added dominations (e.g. AK/AQ must be in pre for these to work) and bad beats (80% or better for the leading hand when the money goes in to qualify.)
At present its an extremely small volume but according to these stats im bang on EV
Why do this? If it comes back you ARE statisically unlucky will you feel better or worse? Posted by jimb0d1
well chances are it might show im lucky or unlucky for a few weeks, But if i continue to do it over a period of time and everygame i play it should about balance out.
This a waste of time. Best way to satisfy you curiosity is to flip a coin 500 times and measure the results. Flips are called flips because they are roughly 50:50... like a coin toss. spend an hour doing this and then spend the rest of your valuable time playing more and increasing your volume. After all you are just as likely to run bad in a poker game as you are in a coin toss game.
My advice would be to stop with all these "I just run bad at life" posts and start racking up hundreds of thousands of hands at cash games within your roll.
Run bad can range from losing coin flips, to your opponents running bad when you get aces, to running bad on hands on the bubble of tournements, to running bad at heads up at the end of tournements. If you spend your time thinking about how you run bad you will lose your mind. Stop thinking about it and start thinking about ways to play more volume
It is stupid from the point of view of a person who understands and copes with variance but I do think I understand why he's doing it. He remembers the bad beats (as most people do) but never remembers the times he's dished out bad beats. So I think his aim is to track and realise 'hang on, I'm giving them out just as much as I get them, so I should stop getting so down about it'
Most people know that it will even out, and deep down I think Don does too, but if seeing it in black and white helps Don realise that he isn't any luckier or unlucky than any other player, it might help him cope with it.
Personally when I take bad beats, it still hurts especially when it's at crucial moments, but I try to think that it will even out and so if I've took a few bad ones, it's only a matter of time before I give a few bad ones out. Manys the time, I've got it all in pre with AQ short stacked at the end of an MTT and luckboxed against AK (as we all have).
Comments
so you do this for 100x flips.
You lose 80 flips and win 20.
You've 'proven' yourself to be an 'unlucky' player, what now? Your clearly not going to give the game up, you've been saying you will for some time now.
Suggestions: STOP PLAYING SATS TO BIG EVENTS, start using appropriate bankroll management for the fields you are playing, I would recommend with your history that 200 buy ins is needed for MTTs, at least 50 buy ins for cash. Be honest about your mistakes, if it would just a cooler don't beat yourself up about how you played it, conversly if you won a hand but played it badly then just admit it.
You could also rename the thread " Don's Flipping Diary"? ;-)
Then you have three outcomes.....
You lose more than you win......give up the game, you are just unlucky !
You win more than you lose.......give up the game, you are just no good !
It all balances out over time......you should be using your time better by analysing your play, not your results.
What you need to be doing is not worrying about the winning or losing of these flips(because in the long run odds will stay true) but analysing the situations in all of these flips.
Asking yourself questions like Should i have been risking it all on a flip here? Could i have played the hand differently or better?
The winning or losing is almost irrelevant compared to the necessity to analyse the situation and your motives behind your moves.
+1.Well said.
Dont see why he would need a massive sample to see how he is running, if he is just measuring flips. He just has to adjust his maths to the sample size, although running really bad over 1 million hands is obv much worse than over 100 hands. But if we go to 10 million flips we wont suddenly magically have exactly 5million wins and 5million losses
For example if he wins 40 or less flips out of 100 this has a probability of <2.5%. Thats running bad imo, although over a small sample. Out of 1000 he has ~2.5% chance of winning less than 470. Why knowing that you are running bad/good would be any use is beyond me.
Disclaimer:Math may be wrong, will explain it if anyone thinks it is and I am assuming flips are exactly 50/50 which obv isnt the case
At present its an extremely small volume but according to these stats im bang on EV
Make first milestone around the 5k mark.
Why do this? If it comes back you ARE statisically unlucky will you feel better or worse?
So you are just proving that probability exists?
Flips total 17. 10 won 7 lost
Bad beats (80% or better when gone in to losing hand) 1 dished out. 2 taken.
70/30s. Went in with dominating hand total of 8, lost 6 won 2. Went in with the dominated hand 7 times, won 2 lost 5
Still small volume.
Most people know that it will even out, and deep down I think Don does too, but if seeing it in black and white helps Don realise that he isn't any luckier or unlucky than any other player, it might help him cope with it.
Personally when I take bad beats, it still hurts especially when it's at crucial moments, but I try to think that it will even out and so if I've took a few bad ones, it's only a matter of time before I give a few bad ones out. Manys the time, I've got it all in pre with AQ short stacked at the end of an MTT and luckboxed against AK (as we all have).
plz close fred
Don
SERIOUSLY!