tips

Not as spectacular a return as in recent years so far, but after the first 2 days we are in decent enough profit. With a couple going very close at big prices things could have been much better, but we’ll take that so far. It’s a very tough looking day today, but hopefully we can turn in another profit today.

CHELTENHAM DAY 3:

1.30 - Jewson Novices´ Chase (Registered As The Golden Miller Novices´ Chase) Grade 2 :

The Jewson Novice Chase is a chase run over 21 furlongs and has its inaugural introduction at last years meeting. It is open to horses five years old and upwards.

Key Trends:

Being just the second running of this race there are obviously no established trends to give us a guide. However the other Novice Chases at this Festival lean heavily to horses eight or younger and those that have shown a bit of class over hurdles by winning a graded race. Last years winner, Noble Prince, was an Irish trained seven year old who, although didn't win a graded race over hurdles, had run well in a Grade One against Quevega and was 5/28 in the previous years County Hurdle. He came into the race on the back of a second in a Novice Chase, was rated 146 and was stepping up to the trip for the first time over fences having won all his hurdle races at that distance.

The main protagonists:

Peddlers Cross: Rated 170 over hurdles after going desperately close in last season's Champion Hurdle and looked set to take top rank in the Chasing field when winning small field affairs at Bangor in November. Unfortunately his reputation took a severe knock when he was thrashed by Sprinter Sacre at Kempton in December. Recent events have suggested that was not as bad as it looked at the time but it transpired after the race that Peddlers Cross had injured himself (he certainly didn't look at ease from an early stage). That injury has meant he has had an interrupted preparation for this Festival and connections switched to this race after originally targeting a rematch with Sprinter Sacre in the Arkle. He won the Neptune Novices over this trip here in 2010 so it obviously suits and his raw speed means he has most angles covered from a tactical point of view. His Trainer has stated that he is beginning to show his best at home but the time he has taken to come back to himself is a concern. He is officially eight pounds better than his nearest rival in this race but that gap could disappear with his opponents at the top of their game. His chances haven't been enhanced by the muted vibes coming from connections either. Jockey, Jason Maguire, nominated Cinders And Ashes as his best chance of Festival success in the ultra competitive Supreme Novices on the opening day.

Cristal Bonus: 152 rated hurdler with Grade 3 winning and Grade One placed form in
France. He only had two races over the smaller obstacles here before transferring to Paul Nicholls for a Novice Chasing campaign this season. He got off to a good start by slamming his five opponents in heavy ground at Chepstow in January and, although that may have been expected (started at 4/9), his next outing told us much more about his class. Faced with good ground for the first time at Kempton the following month, he again destroyed five rivals in a race which had gone to the Arkle winner, Captain Chris, the previous year. He will be happier returned to a left handed track and now he has proved he can handle faster ground connections can approach this race with confidence. However these conditions do come much more natural to some of his rivals and he will find this an altogether tougher task of his credentials.

For Non Stop: 140 rated hurdler who only had Grade 2 placed form but, in four races over fences, he already has been placed and won at Grade 1 level. Fell on his Chase debut over 20 furlongs at this track but was going well and closing on the principles when coming down three out. He followed that with a narrow defeat to Al Ferof at Sandown and a four length second to Cue Card over 16 and 19 furlongs respectably. Both performances suggested he wouldn't look out of place at the top table and re-affirmed that when running out a two length winner over Michael Flipps back up to 20 furlongs at Newbury last time out. He was doing all his best work in the latter stages of that race and the likely strong pace and stiffer track he will be faced with today should suit. There is a suspicion that he will need to fence better because, although he gradually warmed to the task at Newbury, there were a couple of sloppy jumps along the way and he can ill afford those in this company. Only ever won on ground softer than good but does handle faster.

Champion Court: 4/18 in last seasons Albert Bartlett Novices hurdle at last years Festival but didn't spend long over the smaller obstacles. Switched to Novice chasing this season and has shown gradual improvement in races at around this trip. Only won two of his five starts but fell when still going well on his Chasing debut at Perth and a bad mistake late on did for him over a much longer trip here on his penultimate start. He returned to this track to show a really good attitude in fending off Solix and winning last time out and the presence of Invictus eight lengths back in third gives the form a very solid look. He was receiving three pounds from the runner up so there may not be much between them today and he has to contend with other prominent runners in Zaynar and Michael Flips.

Solix: Useful hurdler in France and 5/22 from a mark of 152 in last seasons Coral Cup on his second start for his current stable. Straight over fences for his second season with them and he has already made a big impact. The opposition weren't sighted in two small field affairs at Ascot and here, both on good ground, and the fact that his jumping was far from foot perfect made the margin of victory all the more impressive. He faced a much stiffer test over 21 furlongs here last time out and, although beaten by Champion Court, it was heartening to see him jumping much better. He was conceding three pounds to his rival that day and he has a chance of turning those tables today. He is a good traveller and gives the impression that he has the potential for significant improvement, probably more so than most of his rivals here. Represents a yard who have been in red hot form from day one.

Sir Des Champs: Got up in the dying strides to win the Martin Pipe Conditionals Hurdle from a mark of 134 last season and had his attention switched to a Novice Chase campaign this time round. Unbeaten in three outings at around this trip in Ireland, the last two at Grade 2 level. Won the first two comfortable but only just prevailed from a horse (20/1) in the same ownership last time out. That form alone wouldn't be good enough to win this race but he had to forfeit a bit of ground to get a run and did it comfortably enough in the end. Comes with a big reputation and he wouldn't be the first horse from his powerful yard that produced a performance on the track that hadn't been seen before. His current position as joint favourite suggests he has been showing plenty and he has been the subject of many tips at preview nights from Trainers, jockeys and journalists.
Of the others Bold St Brian has been cleaning up at Northern tracks, and he is improving, but he has been facing much inferior opposition. Duke Of Lucca has been heavily beaten by both Cristal Bonus and Solix and there seems no reason why that should change today. Zaynar has had a change of scenery but he can sulk when not allowed to dominate and this opposition looks too hot for him nowadays. Michael Flips is a lit bit better than his long odds imply but he was brushed aside by For Non Stop last time out and he faces competition for the lead here. Imperial Shabra (rated 112) and Red Tanber (rated 123) aren't good enough.

Summary:

This looks likely to be run at a decent clip with the likes of Champion Court, Michael Flips and Zaynar present. Of the three, Champion Court can be expected to last longest but whether early exertions take their toll remains to be seen. Peddlers Cross is the stand out class in the race but his interrupted preparation must be a concern. The seemingly lack of confidence from connections could be a smokescreen but he doesn't look a risk worth taking at his current odds. Sir Des Champs is said to be better than we have seen but until he shows he can beat this calibre of opposition he too doesn't look worth risking at a skinny price. We already took a position on For Non Stop ante post at 10/1 and this race looks likely to be run to suit. He will need to jump proficiently but, if he does, he looks likely to be on the premises. We will back that up with a small win bet on Solix who promises to improve significantly.

Selections:

For Non Stop - 1 pt win (already selected ante post at 10/1, now available 13/2 generally)
Solix - 1 pt win @ 8/1 (Paddy Power, Stan James, Boylesports)

2.05 - Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle) (Listed Race):

The Pertemps Final is a Class A listed hurdle race run over three miles on the New Course and is open to horses five years and upwards.

Key Trends:

Four or more races that season unless they are a lightly raced type.
Run within the past two months but preferably not within the past two weeks.
Aged 6-9.
Last time out winners
Representing Johnjo O'Neill and/or J P McManus.
Only three winners since 1997 won at a single figure price
Only two winners since 1997 were favourite

Sonofvic: Won both his hurdle races as a Novice last season and put away for a Novice Chasing campaign this season. Got off to a good start by running Grand Crus to within two lengths at Newbury in November but jumping went to pieces on his second start here over 21 furlongs in January. Made several bad errors but was still threatening to get back into the race when he slipped and almost got rid of his jockey after the fourth last. Hasn't been seen since but must be considered at least interesting that he has had his attention switched back to compete at a high profile level over hurdles rather than just as a confidence boosting exercise. Yard not known for handicap plots but the fact Sonofvic has been kept from the assessors gaze hasn't gone unnoticed. Allocated a mark of 141 which wouldn't be unfair on the limited evidence of that short hurdling campaign but every chance he could've improved in the meantime given his Chase debut. An absence of 74 days is not ideal although he is a horse who is said to want time between his races. He will handle the ground and his victory at Chepstow last season at least shows he can handle an undulating track. Ruby Walsh prefers the Willie Mullins inmate but Sonofvic has more than able deputy in Daryl Jacob who was on board against Grand Crus.

Thehillofuisneach: Former Irish Point winner who has only had seven races under rules. He only made the track twice last season after a long absence and a change of stables but he has returned a different horse in handicap company this term. Starting from a mark of 101 he rattled up a hat-trick, the last from a mark of 130 and the manner with which he did it suggested there was much more to come. He has since been well beaten raised to Grade Two level back in Novice company at Haydock but the heavy ground that day can at least be held partially responsible. He wasn't given a hard time once his chance had gone and he can be seen to better effect here now he has his sights lowered. He races from an eight pound higher mark than for his last victory but he is still relatively unexposed over this sort of trip and he won his Point on good ground. Proven in big field and the way he travels through a race will hold him in good stead in a race such as this.

Barwell Bridge: Not an obvious candidate for win purposes but he has run well here on all three previous visits, two of them at this Festival. He was sixth in this race
last season, no mean feat for a five year old and another years maturity on his back could see him improve on that effort. He was nearly six lengths behind Thehillofuisneach in a qualifier for this at Warwick on his penultimate start and is seven pounds better off today. He was kept ticking over by running respectably in an A/W Bumper at Kempton last time out. He is a very gutsy type who responds well to pressure and battles all the way to the line. He remains on the same mark as he was when running in this last season and good ground suits. Enjoys a generous pace which is why he normally runs well in big fields. Gets on well with today's jockey.

Selections: (Outlay 5 pts)

Sonofvic - 1 pt win @ 11/1 (Paddy Power, Bet365, Betvictor)
Thehillofuisneach - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (SJ, Boylesports both 1/4 odds first 5)
Barwell Bridge - 1 pt e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports 1/4 odds first 5)

2.40 - Ryanair Chase (Registered As The Festival Trophy Steeple Chase) Grade 1:

The Ryanair Chase is run over two miles five furlongs on the new course. It is afforded Grade One status and is open to horses five years old and upwards.

Key Trends:

Ran well in a Paddy Power Gold Cup, in the present season's December Gold Cup or contested the King George VI Chase tend to do well in this race.
First four in the betting.
Previous winning form at Cheltenham.
At least five starts over fences
2-4 races in the present season.

Alberta's Run is a three time winner at the Festival ,including the last two renewals of this race. Won on his reappearance in October but a subsequent injury has kept off since October. Has gone well fresh in the past but now in advancing years and will find it harder to keep on doing it against this calibre of opposition. Has a 4 from 5 record over fences at this track and a 9 from 15 record on good ground, which is vital to his chances. It would foolish to write him off but it's likely he will need a performance up there with his best if he is to prevail. Poquelin has been favourite for the last two renewals of this race and finished second and fourth. He rarely runs a bad race here and his performance in finishing second, albeit well beaten, under top weight in a handicap last time out wasn't far short of his best. However he probably still needs to find something from somewhere to beat a few of these and Ruby Walsh prefers Blazing Tempo. Riverside Theatre returned from a year out to repeat his win in the Ascot Chase in February. He beat Medermit three lengths jumping and travelling well throughout. That performance reiterated that he is as good as ever and warrants his place at the head of the market. However his one previous visit here saw him run below par in the Arkle in 2010 and the jury is still out on whether he prefers flat tracks. Rubi Light was a three length third in this race last season but that was a sterling effort for a relatively inexperienced six year old who had shown all his previous form on much softer ground. He has won two of his four starts this season, both in testing ground, but was a good second to Synchronised over three miles on good ground. A winner of six of his eleven starts over fences he still looks to be improving. Somersby finally tasted Grade One success in the first time cheekpieces at Ascot last time out and that form wasn't let down by Finian's Rainbow yesterday. He has winning form over today's trip but his previous three Festival trips have all been over shorter. He is a horse you can almost set your clock by but whether he will repeat that last effort on his second run in cheekpieces remains to be seen. If he does, he is likely to be in there pitching and he doesn't go down without a fight. Like Rubi Light, Medermit is another who still seems to be improving. That has been the case in all four outings this season and, although yet to win here, he has returned some top class performances. Has three lengths to make up on Riverside theatre on Ascot running but a cleaner round of jumping and his proven ability to handle the track may see those positions reversed. Captain Chris was last season's Arkle winner but this season hasn't gone to plan at all. He unseated at Exeter when looking set for victory on his reappearance but seemed to run a good race in the King George, albeit well beaten. However he jumped badly to his right from an early stage over 26 furlongs here last time out and was eventually pulled up. Does peak at this time of year but he will need to be back to his best to take a hand here. Noble Prince won the Jewson Novices here over this trip last season after being kept to shorter trips over fences prior to that. Connections have followed the same pattern this season with all four of his Chases being over 16/17 furlongs. All but one of his four hurdle wins came over 20 furlongs so it's a distance that not only suits him well but a trip connections seem to reserve for him to produce his best. He may still have a bit to find with some of these but he is capable of bridging the gap.

Summary:

Noble Prince's preparation for this mirrored the way connections approached and won last year's Jewson Novice and he strikes you as a horse who is capable of improving past a number of these. Riverside Theatre is the best horse based on official ratings but his ability to handle the track has to be taken on trust and he doesn't appeal at his current price on that basis alone. Captain Chris is unexposed at around this trip and could figure if he is back to his best. However both Medermit and Rubi Light both still look capable of further progression and they look worth supporting.

Selections: (outlay 2 pts)

Medermit - 1 pt win @ 8/1 (General)
Rubi Light - 1 pt win @ 10/1 (General)

3.20 - Ladbrokes World Hurdle Grade 1:

The world Hurdle is a Grade One hurdle race run over three miles for horses four years old and upwards.

Key Trends:

French Breds
Ran in the Cleeve hurdle, Long Walk hurdle or at last season's Festival.
Run at least six times over hurdles.
Aged 6-9
Finished first or second last time out.
Big Bucks has farmed this race in recent seasons but this season's renewal seems to have more strength in depth. It's still difficult seeing him get beaten and it's a race to watch rather than get heavily involved in. However at a big price it may be worth having a small e/w stake on So Young. He has to find major improvement on what he has achieved so far but he has an easy win at Punchestown over 22 furlongs in soft ground to his name this season and this is his first attempt at further. He is still only a six year old and has done most of his running in testing conditions but he was just over four lengths behind First Lieutenant in the Neptune Novices on good ground at the Festival last season despite making a bad mistake late on. He had the pace to easily beat Trifolium over two miles at Naas last time out and that rival did the form no harm in the Supreme Novices on Tuesday. Looks the stable second string to Thousand Stars on jockey bookings but with the possibility of improvement to come he looks worth risking at almost three times that ones price.

Selection: (Outlay - 1 pt)

So Young: 0.5 pts e/w @ 25/1 (Stan James)

4.00 - Byrne Group Plate (Handicap Chase) Grade 3:

A Class A Grade 3 handicap Chase run over 2 miles 5 furlongs for horses aged five years and upwards.

Key Trends:

English trained horses at big prices.
Had at least three runs in the current season
Carrying 11 stone or less
French Breds
Run at the Festival before

Hector's Choice: Couldn't be described as the best handicapped horse and needs to defy a few stats concerning the weight he is carrying and his official rating if he is to prevail. However he has improved in every completed run over fences, winning twice and finishing in the frame in five others. Been keeping, and getting competitive with, some good company this year including when coming a gallant second over a trip that looked too far in the Grade 3 Racing Plus Chase at Kempton last time out. Drops back to the trip over which he was a close second here in January from a six pound lower and will have no problem with today's ground. He has formed a good relationship with today's jockey and his prominent racing style will help keep him out of trouble in a field where there is likely to be a few hard luck stories.

The Cockney Mackem: First season Chaser who is still a maiden over the bigger obstacles after six attempts. The fact his mark has risen 17 pounds in those starts hardly makes him seem like the ideal sort to win this. However he gets in this handicap near the bottom of the weights and he is totally unexposed over this trip. He was running on well in the closing stages over 19 furlongs in a Taunton handicap on his penultimate start and found the three mile trip beyond him at Doncaster last time out where he finished a tired second. He has finished second in four of his five completed outings over fences (third in the other) and he is young enough to find the required improvement to overcome his current mark. He doesn't have any experience of this track but he looks a safe jumper and he will have no problem handling the ground. Represents a stable whose horses have returned to form recently.

Selections: (Outlay - 4 pts)

Hector's Choice - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)
The Cockney Mackem - 1 pt e/w @ 20/1 (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)

4.40 - Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup (Handicap Chase) (Amateur Riders)

The Kim Muir Challenge Cup is a long established Cheltenham Festival handicap for horses aged five years and upwards over a distance of three miles one and half furlongs. This Class B Handicap is restricted to amateur jockeys only.
In terms of following strong trends this is the weakest handicap at the Festival

Key Trends:

Aged 7-10 (8 and 9 year olds have won the majority of recent renewals)
Avoid horses coming from Novice races or stepping up in trip
Experienced non-claiming jockey
A bad run last time out need not be a negative
Only two favourites have won since 1997
5 of the last 14 winners have been 20/1 or greater.

Midnight Appeal: Progressive Chaser who has won five of his eight races over fences despite not always being perfect in the fencing department. Cannot afford too many mistakes today but two of his efforts, including a win last time out, came at Sandown which takes some jumping. Unexposed at this trip but last two efforts over 24/25 furlongs suggest he could find further improvement for the stiffer test. Needs to from this nine pound higher mark and hasn't run left handed that often. Represents a Trainer in form and three pound claimer has plenty of experience

Sona Sasta: Beaten a long way last time but that came over 20 furlongs in very testing ground. Had shown improvement prior to that season which saw his mark rise from 106 to 133. Normally seen on much softer ground but has handled faster conditions on the few times he has encountered them, notably when fading late on in the four miler at this Festival last season. Goes with the blinkers for the first time which could sharpen him up and his five pound claiming jockey has a decent strike rate over fences

Selections: (outlay - 3 pts)

Midnight Appeal - 1 pt e/w @ 12/1 (Boylesports 1/4 odds first 5)
Sona Sasta - 0.5 pts e/w @ 16/1 (Bet365, 1/4 odds first 5)