This is a bit of an obvious tip. "I expect the guy on pole to score points" - Duh. It's more of a tip not to back him for the race win despite recent history at this race.
The Polesitter has won this race in 9 of the last 10 years, the one exception being last year (with the introduction of DRS) when Mark Webber took pole and finished 4th. If you look at that record, then see the polesitter is like, 10/1, you'd probably think, and rightly so, that it's probably too good to be true.
Although Maldonado is quick this weekend, I don't think with DRS in F1 that he'd be able to hold off quicker cars behind like you could a few years ago, so I've backed him to score points instead but don't fancy him to win. The prices on Sky Bet are...well, I wouldn't back him at 2/7, so I've put £2 on him to score points at 1.51 elsewhere.
Also, Maldonado to win and the winner to be a Williams driver are both 10/1, so might as well back a Williams driver to win @ 10/1 instead if you're going to back Maldonado. I know there's probably more chance of **** freezing over than Bruno Senna winning this race from 18th on the grid, but might as well back Williams instead of just 1 of their drivers if both prices are the same. Stranger things have happened in F1
2) Bruno Senna to score points @ 9/4
He's starting 18th, however, there's no reason why he can't get into the points. Also, the Williams has been really strong in the race, so expect to see him finish in the lower end of the points. Stuck a quid on this.
3) Grosjean to win @ 7/1 EW (1/5 first 3 places)
Thought this track would suit the Lotus team (What IS the plural of Lotus? Lotuses? Loti? Idk...) before the weekend started, qualifying confirmed that with them starting 3rd and 4th respectively following Hamilton's exclusion from qualifying, and I think both have a chance of winning - I don't expect Maldonado to stay out front for long, and I'm still not convinced by the pace of the Ferrari, although it has improved, I think the Lotuses/Loti/Whatever are the quicker car still, so I think the winner will be one of either Raikkonen or Grosjean.
Unfortunately, we'll never really find out how quick this Ferrari is, because Massa is c#@p, so we have nothing to compare Alonso to - I still expect both Lotus drivers to finish ahead of him though.
Raikkonen is only 10/3, and I've seen nothing to separate him and Grosjean this season, so might as well take Grosjean at 7/1, although he does start behind Raikkonen. Therefore, I've stuck £2 E/W on Grosjean.
Lotus driver to win @ 7/4 would probably be a safer bet, but meh. Where's the fun in that? :P
One last point on Maldonado - Not 100% sure when Monaco is off the top of my head, think it's 2 weeks time - Stick a few quid E/W on Maldonado for both pole and the win, he's got an incredible record at street circuits in his career. He'll probably be, like, 50/1 or something, maybe a bit longer, but he's really matured this season, he has a quick car, and a reputation for being quick on street tracks. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see him do something special there. Keep an eye on the prices on Maldonado in Monaco.
I've gone for: Perez top 3. 5-1 £12 Senna top 6 14-1 £8 Massa top 10. 9-4 £25
Need one to win to be up. Porbs better odds elsewhere, but cba shopping around. Had money in that account and just went for it. Should be a good race regardless. I think Mclaren will struggle, Button not happy with car, Hamilton obviously fuming. If they mess up another pitstop there will be **** on !
Sauber looking good. Williams has great pace this weekend, hence why i went for Senna. Hope Alonso wins in front of his home crowd but can't see it happening. Red Bull not quite at it this weekend either. Mercedes struggling aswell. Lotus looking best now, but very short odds !
Sigh at thinking Maldonado would get slaughtered in the race! Gutted now as he was 10/1 last night to win.
Was expecting Grosjean to be quicker than Raikkonen, too.
May have called this one slightly wrong. Oops! Wouldn't be at all surprised to see Maldonado be even better in Monaco. Tempted to stick a few quid on Lotus for the Constructors' title too, as they seem to be the only team that can get 2 cars to the end of the race and get decent points every single race.
Bump - Remember that as it's Monaco, Practice 1 and 2 are both on THURSDAY instead of Friday.
And a tip, ofc - Sky Bet are offering 33/1 that Michael Schumacher retires on the 1st lap. IMO, this is brilliant value, for the following reasons:
1) Schumacher has a 5 place grid penalty - This means he cannot be any higher than 6th on the grid (if he's the fastest qualifier). He'll likely be in the middle of the field somewhere. If there's any 1st lap incidents, it's most likely to occur in the midfield, so the chances of him being involved in a first lap accident are fairly high - Definitely better than 33/1 IMO.
2) Schumacher is under pressure - With Rosberg having scored 41 points and won a race already, compared to Schumacher's 2 points for 10th in Malaysia and 10th in Bahrain, there's a lot of speculation that his contract won't be renewed at the end of the season, and that he'll retire again. This, combined with his grid penalty, and the fact that overtaking is difficult at Monaco even with DRS, may make him more likely to take risks that he wouldn't usually take on the first lap.
I've got a £5 free bet so decided to go for it :P £165 if Schumi doesn't make it to the end of Lap 1.
Yeah, been following Silverstone - Can't predict a winner this season, but I've got about £45 on Lotus for the constructors title @ 9/2, which I put on before I withdrew my Poker roll about 8 weeks ago, so I'm hoping for a Lotus 1-2, lol.
PS: Just caught the end of the GP2 race and the track looks DRY - Not sure if it'll rain between now and the start of the F1 race.
Comments
1) Pastor Maldonado to score points @ 1.51
2) Bruno Senna to score points @ 9/4
Raikkonen is only 10/3, and I've seen nothing to separate him and Grosjean this season, so might as well take Grosjean at 7/1, although he does start behind Raikkonen. Therefore, I've stuck £2 E/W on Grosjean.
I've gone for: Perez top 3. 5-1 £12
Senna top 6 14-1 £8
Massa top 10. 9-4 £25
Need one to win to be up. Porbs better odds elsewhere, but cba shopping around. Had money in that account and just went for it. Should be a good race regardless. I think Mclaren will struggle, Button not happy with car, Hamilton obviously fuming. If they mess up another pitstop there will be **** on !
Sauber looking good. Williams has great pace this weekend, hence why i went for Senna.
Hope Alonso wins in front of his home crowd but can't see it happening.
Red Bull not quite at it this weekend either. Mercedes struggling aswell. Lotus looking best now, but very short odds !
Anyone could win tbh.
Had £50 on Pastor EW at 11/1 with Sky Bet. That'll pay for dinner
And a tip, ofc - Sky Bet are offering 33/1 that Michael Schumacher retires on the 1st lap. IMO, this is brilliant value, for the following reasons:
1) Schumacher has a 5 place grid penalty - This means he cannot be any higher than 6th on the grid (if he's the fastest qualifier). He'll likely be in the middle of the field somewhere. If there's any 1st lap incidents, it's most likely to occur in the midfield, so the chances of him being involved in a first lap accident are fairly high - Definitely better than 33/1 IMO.
2) Schumacher is under pressure - With Rosberg having scored 41 points and won a race already, compared to Schumacher's 2 points for 10th in Malaysia and 10th in Bahrain, there's a lot of speculation that his contract won't be renewed at the end of the season, and that he'll retire again. This, combined with his grid penalty, and the fact that overtaking is difficult at Monaco even with DRS, may make him more likely to take risks that he wouldn't usually take on the first lap.
I've got a £5 free bet so decided to go for it :P £165 if Schumi doesn't make it to the end of Lap 1.
Are you following Silverstone Mr Pingy?
Had Alonso for pole at 9/1 (cashback!) and have him for the win at 5/1 (prices & bets from Thursday).
This weekend's comedy bet is Kovi @ 2500/1 - Bring on the rain! haha
Also got Button, Webber & Massa for the win but was hoping for that slippy stuff