Cardiff Satellite - Is This Shove Ok?

Lambert180

Do you think this shove is ok? I'm going through my HH trying to analyse some of my hands from the tourney but I dunno what to think about this one, because I don't know if it's a bad shove or just variance.

I know I'm not gonna be in fantastic shape, but I think I'll pick up the blinds a decent percentage of the time and when I don't, I'm more often than not gonna be a marginal favourite in a race, and I think I may need to take that race soon with my stack.

Just so you know, there was 15 left, think I was 11th or 12th, 5 seats going and 6th gets £88.

What do people think my shoving range should be from this situations and position?

(Player X has been changed because he had a 'rude' name that Sky wouldnt let me post lol)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
kezza69	Small blind		75.00	75.00	4320.00
x	Big blind		150.00	225.00	1370.00
	Your hole cards	2 2
Lambert180	All-in		2030.00	2255.00	0.00
beefyboy	Fold
SoLack	All-in		3590.00	5845.00	0.00
kezza69	Fold
x	Fold
SoLack	Unmatched bet		1560.00	4285.00	1560.00
Lambert180	Show	2 2
SoLack	Show	J J
Flop
		K Q 3
Turn
		Q
River
		Q
SoLack	Win	Full House, Queens and Jacks	4285.00		5845.00

BorinLoner

In a satellite, I hate this. You've got more than 13BB and you don't need to win this tournament, just to survive. You can afford to wait four or more orbits before beginning to worry about being short. I think you need to adjust your game to the fact that you're only trying to squeak into the last five.

DOHHHHHHH

Would be a more obvious shove if the BB was deeper, how light are they likely to call?

I probably shove too, but don't mind a fold either. 

Lambert180

Well obviously any call (ecluding PPs) is a flip, short of him calling with A2 (which I'm sure he would do but it's a tiny part of his range), but I can see him calling with tons of overcards that I'm flipping against, and the way I saw it was that from that situation, there was no way I was gonna get to the seats without winning a race, so a flip where am the slight favourite (with the potential of stealing blinds) seemed favourable.

I understand the concept of being tighter and not needing to win etc, but I knew I was at least 1 hour away from the bubble which meant I either needed a double up, or would let myself get low and would probably be in a situation where I need to win multiple races in a row.

BorinLoner

You will need to win pots before the bubble bursts but you really can let yourself get down to 7BB or 8BB before you need to worry. Nobody is going to call off 7BB late in a satellite because they're just looking to cruise through, too. So if you can wait four or five orbits you will get better hands than 22 to move in with. Certainly it would be better to shove from the button or SB in an unopened pot even with two random cards. You just need to pay the rent, even when you've got 7BB. You don't actually need the double-up.

rancid

fold

2's Yuk UTG

not that short either, your always racing at BEST!

Dudeskin8

I'm pretty sure you can find a better spot than this, you're also not uber short in that you have to shove ATC, 13bb's is plenty so gotta pass this imo.

Overall for me the risk reward isn't enough in your favour in that you only increase stack by 11% but need everyone to fold and anyone calling basically means you're in big trouble or even dead like here.

Otb I probz shove here but UTG feels to risky. 

Mohican

Open fold for me. 13bbs is far too early to be shoving,you can go as low as 5bbs in a satellite and still have fold equity(especially as the bubble gets closer). Also, shoving with 2 2 utg means that the best you're ever going to be is a slight favourite in a flip with a strong chance of being counterfeited.

grantorino

22 is a pretty bad choice of hand to be doing this with imo. fold for me

EvilPingu

22 UTG with 13bb = Fold. Shoving and hoping that you're flipping is horrible, and there's better spots to jam from if you want to take down the blinds. The only way I'm even thinking about shoving here is if the blinds are going up in the very next hand. Even then, I'd probably still rather fold, let the blinds go through and shove next time it's folded around to me unopened.

BTW, I looked back over some of your posts in here from the SPT Brighton satellites, and I think you have a flaw in your game - I reckon you don't realise just how much more fold equity you have in satellites as you get closer to the bubble, and you start shoving too soon. Seems to be quite a few hands you've posted where you thought you needed to shove, where infact, you can hang on quite a while longer, maintain your stack by taking down the blinds uncontested, and find a better spot.

As you know, it doesn't matter whether you have 90% of the chips in play, or a chip and a chair, as long as you're still in at the end, you win the same seat that everyone else wins. You can blind down a lot further than in a regular tournament as you have more fold equity, especially near the bubble - For instance, a 6bb button shove would be a snap call with a fairly wide range in a tournament, in a satellite near the bubble, you'll still be able to get it through surprisingly often.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Cardiff Satellite - Is This Shove Ok?:

22 UTG with 13bb = Fold. Shoving and hoping that you're flipping is horrible, and there's better spots to jam from if you want to take down the blinds. The only way I'm even thinking about shoving here is if the blinds are going up in the very next hand. Even then, I'd probably still rather fold, let the blinds go through and shove next time it's folded around to me unopened. BTW, I looked back over some of your posts in here from the SPT Brighton satellites, and I think you have a flaw in your game - I reckon you don't realise just how much more fold equity you have in satellites as you get closer to the bubble, and you start shoving too soon. Seems to be quite a few hands you've posted where you thought you needed to shove, where infact, you can hang on quite a while longer, maintain your stack by taking down the blinds uncontested, and find a better spot. As you know, it doesn't matter whether you have 90% of the chips in play, or a chip and a chair, as long as you're still in at the end, you win the same seat that everyone else wins. You can blind down a lot further than in a regular tournament as you have more fold equity, especially near the bubble - For instance, a 6bb button shove would be a snap call with a fairly wide range in a tournament, in a satellite near the bubble, you'll still be able to get it through surprisingly often.
Posted by EvilPingu

Shoving here is not horrible.  

He's got 13xbb, u seem to be using that as a negative, rather than a positive.

As I said initially, alot depends on the big blind (we're only 9x effective v him)

The larger our stack, the harder it is for them to call.

A fold may be correct, but a shove is not horrible, unless the big blind is a plonker. 

Lambert180

I've definitely noted the points you've made Pingu, a few of my shoves have been way too premature and I know that  now. I think I've been too focussed on getting to a decent stack where I can cruise a bit and just fold my way into a seat.

One thing I do think about that though... lots of people saying that same thing, "doesn't matter what stack you got as long as you still got chips left when the bubble goes" and in theory that's all very good, but when to give a little example... there's often 5 seats going in these sats, so you get to the FT, 5 people have 10BB and I have 2BB, then what? Everyone is gonna be sat that waiting for me to get knocked out, I'll be praying to get a half decent shoveable hand and will be up against the chances of 5 other people having a good enough hand to call with and then need to win a race. At best, I win and get to 4BB, then it's 4x 10BB, 1x 8BB and me on 4BB. No-one (assuming they aint idiots) is EVER gonna clash with each other while I'm still that low, so I've been trying to avoid getting into that spot earlier.

That's my thinking anyway, tell me if I'm going wrong somewhere but that's how I see it and that maybe where I'm going wrong.

DOHHHHHHH

You can't even think about the bubble at this stage.

15 left/5 seats? It's ridiculous......

Think about bubble strategy when you're approaching/on it!

Again, not saying it's 100% a shove, but thoughts like that are irrelevant at this stage, just make +ev moves.

Maybe this discussion has gone more into general sattellite strategy, in which case I'm talking horlix, but stuff like "find a better spot" "flipping at best" is sh***te! You're not shoving for value obv.

How much fold equity u got?

Answer that, then you can decide if it's a shove or not. 

AMYBR

Myeh dueces are same as 8's here really.  13bbs am obv shoving 8's.

But it being a sat 15 left 5 and 6cash getting paid I think I wait out a better spot, but just a personal thing.

Shove fine, fold fine.

Lambert180

I'd say I've got ALOT... if I've got 13BB, I'd say anyone who has less than that is insta-folding unless they have AA/KK/QQ maybe AK. Unfortunately they guy who had 20+BB happened to pick up JJ and the rest is history. I'd say I get calls here a VERY small percentage of the time. But even with that in mind, looking back at it now, even if I do get folds all round, I've took an unnecessary risk for a pretty small increase to my stack.

BorinLoner

We should be thinking about the bubble from this level. That's our only aim. We don't need to build our stack, though, only to maintain it with some fold equity.

The problem of getting it in here is that we have five players to get through and a hand that gives us very little back-up if we're called. This is why it's important to wait for a better spot. We can get it in from the button or SB later with only one or two players to get through or we can move with a hand that plays better against our opponents' calling ranges than 22. Given three, four or five orbits we can be pretty sure that we'll find a better hand than 22.

The idea of fold equity is fair but frankly we'll have as much fold equity against stacks of 9BB if we have just 7BB ourselves as if we have 13BB. They won't call off any lighter simply because they'll have a few chips back. They'll be looking for spots to get it in first, just as we should. If we shove here with 22 we're bluffing to steal the blinds, since we're hoping not to be called, but we're bluffing into five players rather than just the two you'd be bluffing into from the button.

Lambert180

I obviously need help with satellite strategy!

The SPT Brighton sats were literally the first satellites I had ever entered in my life (not counting playing the survivor once) so I think I'm still learning. So I do appreciate the help.

Bring on the satellite advice, cos I'm gonna be in this again tonight.

DOHHHHHHH

In Response to Re: Cardiff Satellite - Is This Shove Ok?:

I obviously need help with satellite strategy! The SPT Brighton sats were literally the first satellites I had ever entered in my life (not counting playing the survivor once) so I think I'm still learning. So I do appreciate the help. Bring on the satellite advice, cos I'm gonna be in this again tonight.
Posted by Lambert180

Let Llamas play for u

We're 5 handed in op btw.

rancid

In Response to Re: Cardiff Satellite - Is This Shove Ok?:

You can't even think about the bubble at this stage. 15 left/5 seats? It's ridiculous...... Think about bubble strategy when you're approaching/on it! Again, not saying it's 100% a shove, but thoughts like that are irrelevant at this stage, just make +ev moves. Maybe this discussion has gone more into general sattellite strategy, in which case I'm talking horlix, but stuff like "find a better spot" "flipping at best" is sh***te! You're not shoving for value obv. How much fold equity u got? Answer that, then you can decide if it's a shove or not. 
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Is the question

1. is shoving with 22 ok

2. is shoving with atc ok

why would we shove here

if we shoving for folds then does 22 play better against calling range than 93o

question

do we have to shove for folds given situation

I would say no becasue we not that short, and given that 22 does no hold up well versus calling range  then we can happly fold this UTG