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call or fold?

percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
edited March 2012 in The Poker Clinic
25NL

Unknown villain raises standard 0.75 on BTN, HERO flats in SB w/ A10s - both stacks around 100BB

Flop: 10s 7c 4s
Hero checks, villain bets around pot, hero flat calls

Turn: Ah
Hero checks (maybe should've led out?) villain checks behind

River: Jd
Hero bets around 80% of pot, villain shoves for around 90BB

What could villain have here? Is it a call or fold? Only stats on this guy are 13/0 and that's only over 13 hands...

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Comments

  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited March 2012
    So the pot through the hand is roughly:

    Pre: 1.50

    Flop: 4.50

    Turn: 4.50

    River: He bets about 3.60 into the 4.50?

    And it's T74AJ (no possible flush)...

    I'm far from an expert but my thinking is...He aint checking the turn with a set (or betting that big on the flop), especially when the A could hit your range a fair bit or could give you outs to outdraw a set. He's probably betting a big/medium ace on the turn when checked to him so I rule out AJ. I can't see why he pot bets flop with KQ so aint got nut straight. Guess the only hand I could see him raising the button with that has gone ahead of you by the river is 98. You've unde-repped your hand so he could be valuebetting with ALOT of hands you beat. Could also have been betting strongle with a spade draw on the flop, checked for a free card on the turn when you checked to him, then figured he could nick it off you cos it had been played quite passively.

    Call and stick a note on him either way.
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2012
    yes you're roughly correct, hero bets into villain on the river though
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited March 2012
    In Response to Re: call or fold?:
    yes you're roughly correct, hero bets into villain on the river though
    Posted by percival09
    Ah sorry, forgot it was you that bet, and he jammed. Just need to rethink a bit then... 1 sec lol.
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2012
    bumppppp
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2012
    bump X2 lolol
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  • davelufcdavelufc Member Posts: 1,374
    edited March 2012
    Fold, villain got QK......... Next.
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2012
    In Response to Re: call or fold?:
    Fold, villain got QK......... Next.
    Posted by davelufc
    for sure?
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited March 2012
    In Response to Re: call or fold?:
    Fold, villain got QK......... Next.
    Posted by davelufc
    Why would his c-bet be so big (full pot) with KQ?
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  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited March 2012
    lol idk, I call cos Im a station, could well be a fold. Tough spot though. Missed draws, JT, KQ imo
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2012
    Instantly when he shoved I thought KQ or 89 because I didn't think he'd shove any 2 pair other than maybe AJ but that didn't make sense... luckily I had a time bank to think about it lol I eventually narrowed it down to 89, KQ, J10 or obviously missed draws ... At first I thought he wouldn't shove with J10 but for whatever reason I called and my hand won against J10 ... I sort of think it might have been a bad call although it was the correct call
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  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    These are always going to be sick spots, especially as betting goes here.

    Hadnt read it up til now as didnt really know what you were asking... (something I am likely just as guilty of in my own HH posts).

    Just going to come down to reads/dynamic tho IMO.

    Board is pretty polarised.  Think will see the hands we fear enough of the time to make this a fold.
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited March 2012
    quite readless.. It probably should've been a fold looking back
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