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‘Bubble’ for final table….flawed thinking?.... you tell me
profman15
Member Posts: 1,808
Here is the hand from £600 Bounty Hunter
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceprofman15Small blind 3000.003000.0075297.50EL_BAYLEAFBig blind 6000.009000.0028075.00 Your hole cardsJA marco2505Call 6000.0015000.00139032.50rivered632Fold profman15Call 3000.0018000.0072297.50EL_BAYLEAFCheck Flop 73A profman15Check EL_BAYLEAFCheck marco2505Bet 18000.0036000.00121032.50profman15All-in 72297.50108297.500.00EL_BAYLEAFFold marco2505Call 54297.50162595.0066735.00profman15ShowJA marco2505Show33 Turn 8 River 10 marco2505WinThree 3s162595.00 229330.00
I’d just lost to BB in previous hand to flush card on river after being ahead after flop. I was behind originally so wasn’t feeling tilted.There had been a lot of ai’s recently as you’d expect.I’d aimed for final table unless I got a premier hand but wasn’t afraid to bet in right circs just not bluff so much with such big blinds. I was expecting BB to go ai possibly as his m=8( Harrington stack/(sb+bb)) so wanted to see a flop really hence ch/fd or ch/ai if CO does not ai.and flop is favourable.BB checks but flop is favourable(top pair , good kicker)…flush draw out there so when CO bets pot I feel it can be steal, middle pair, flush draw or even AX with me ahead.I shove to entice BB and expect CO to let me go as >half his stack. It doesn’t work out like this and 33 is there. “Aaah yes”, I hear you say.( Not quite what I uttered, mind you!)…”you should raise pre flop”. My thinking to explain why I didn’t was that BB ai would take well over one third of my stack not incl an 18k initial raise which was already ¼ of my stack. Is this thinking flawed? Should I consider ‘aiming’ for final table and laddering a bit or just play as per hand?I’d had my share of luck though. Analysing the hand history, I’d been ai 11 times but been ahead 7 times (winning 6) and behind 4 times(winning 2) . Obviously I’d covered them sometimes. Is this amount of catastrophic ai’s (probably eight )normal, as it seems a lot?Sorry for the length of this but I wanted to give you my thoughts at the time. I’d appreciate your thoughts . Don’t spare the rod…I can take it. It’s all part of the learning process and was still a cash after all. Cheers…….
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceprofman15Small blind 3000.003000.0075297.50EL_BAYLEAFBig blind 6000.009000.0028075.00 Your hole cardsJA marco2505Call 6000.0015000.00139032.50rivered632Fold profman15Call 3000.0018000.0072297.50EL_BAYLEAFCheck Flop 73A profman15Check EL_BAYLEAFCheck marco2505Bet 18000.0036000.00121032.50profman15All-in 72297.50108297.500.00EL_BAYLEAFFold marco2505Call 54297.50162595.0066735.00profman15ShowJA marco2505Show33 Turn 8 River 10 marco2505WinThree 3s162595.00 229330.00
I’d just lost to BB in previous hand to flush card on river after being ahead after flop. I was behind originally so wasn’t feeling tilted.There had been a lot of ai’s recently as you’d expect.I’d aimed for final table unless I got a premier hand but wasn’t afraid to bet in right circs just not bluff so much with such big blinds. I was expecting BB to go ai possibly as his m=8( Harrington stack/(sb+bb)) so wanted to see a flop really hence ch/fd or ch/ai if CO does not ai.and flop is favourable.BB checks but flop is favourable(top pair , good kicker)…flush draw out there so when CO bets pot I feel it can be steal, middle pair, flush draw or even AX with me ahead.I shove to entice BB and expect CO to let me go as >half his stack. It doesn’t work out like this and 33 is there. “Aaah yes”, I hear you say.( Not quite what I uttered, mind you!)…”you should raise pre flop”. My thinking to explain why I didn’t was that BB ai would take well over one third of my stack not incl an 18k initial raise which was already ¼ of my stack. Is this thinking flawed? Should I consider ‘aiming’ for final table and laddering a bit or just play as per hand?I’d had my share of luck though. Analysing the hand history, I’d been ai 11 times but been ahead 7 times (winning 6) and behind 4 times(winning 2) . Obviously I’d covered them sometimes. Is this amount of catastrophic ai’s (probably eight )normal, as it seems a lot?Sorry for the length of this but I wanted to give you my thoughts at the time. I’d appreciate your thoughts . Don’t spare the rod…I can take it. It’s all part of the learning process and was still a cash after all. Cheers…….
Comments
In this hand the main problem you have is that you only have 12.5BB yourself and the amount of dead money in the pot is 2.5BB. This means that if you can claim the pot pre-flop, you will add 1/5 (20%) to your stack, without having to see a showdown. The fact that one opponent has limped into the pot only makes it a better opportunity for you to shove here. He may have limped with a big hand but he's more likely to have a weak hand, as he does here.
If you're going to play the AJ with 12.5BB from the SB, you really have to shove with it. Any analysis of your play on the flop would be analysing something that should never have happened. You really did need to either shove or fold this hand pre-flop, though I think folding AJ here would have been too tight.
A good explanatory clear thread. Appreciated. One point though, i made the error of m=8 legitimately ( iwas a maths teacher for 23 years so shameon me eh? Sky page had stuck for time so i was rewriting and a bit peeved!!)but would say his m=3 as i don't count the blind as being his....its gone so he is playing with m=3 when the play comes to him. Most others are going to agree the pre-flop shove or at least raise. It was the dichotomy between big stack limping which was curious and the BB with very small m value, do i want to be drawn into the melee? I was trying to give myself an escape if ai from BB then ai from CO with minimal damage. I do feel on reflection that i should have shoved as can only feel that CO would have folded. That Ace on the plus the two other cards tempted me!!
Oh well, its anything considered hand and i appreciate the views of the frum. TY
note: your just not deep enough to see a flop and play poker
way to think also is if you miss the flop as you said you wanted to see it first, and you miss what then? you have just wasted a large portion of your stack! if he bets after miss you have to fold when still 2 cards to come and he could be bluffin and so wasted oportunity that might not come around again. get um in and double up to go on and win it.
I feel after a relatively short time tryin to learn the game that i'm making some progress and thanks to the clinic and your opinions...they certainly help to clarify and challenge my thinking.many thanks...i'm a glass half full player now for sure. Hope to see you around on the tables....
PS If i'd have shoved do you think CO should call or even BB would/should call?
In answer to your Q@ if marco is any good he will fold, but if he was any good he'd nvr limp utg there............
But either way, do whats right (optimum), thats whats matters in the long haul.