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Best line Flop/turn? Brain wont let this one go just yet. Thoughts appreciated.

AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
edited March 2012 in The Poker Clinic
OCD brain toying with best approach on this one in hindsight.  Would be interested to hear opinions.

400 high % donk field, where final 9 get flights & accomadation in Vegas for self and guest for week + cash prizes.

Basically a turbo, 5000 starting stack.  Lvls are kind of steep @20min intervals.

9 handed table, even mix of decent seeming players and ridicadonks.

7 levels in, blinds @ 200/400(50), I start hand with 10,000.  Have a pretty solid image I think, but have a bad seat draw against 2 deep stacks who are just stationing most bets IP.  Ideal in some ways, but am sat 25bb deep so is slightly tricky. 

Best hand I've seen has been A5, getting frustrated but still feel edge is strong.

Deep stacks have been massively overshipping pre, there is no thoughts to bet sizing at all, never turning over anything entirely credible.

I find AcQh UTG+1 with 25bbs.  Am half tempted to open shove feeling worse def calls (has been), but decide against it.  Blinds are going up to 300/600(100) in 3 minutes, which am going to assume will fall on my BB.

I make it 900 to go, expecting a ship from a later seat, being prepared to get it in.  Deep suLag calls in the CO, equally SuLag stations button, as does a nnitty 127yr old in the BB.

4 to flop.  4300 in pot Qc 10c 4h (Am holding AcQh).  About a good a flop as I could possibly hope for.  Hits me hard and is very likely to hit one of the deep Lags.  I have 9000ish back, which is currently 25bbs, but about to become 15 as lvl is closing.

Ship & hope to get called with the range of hands you mostly expect the deep lags to hold?  Or go for some assured value, setting up turn ship, but knowing we have to get it in on any turn if we bet and are called?

If we hope to last more than another level or so we need to start working on a healthy stack.  Am not sure we can scare away value here....however obv argument being we can expect to potentially get called semi wide while protecting our hand....but myeh feel like chip accumilation was the goal here.

As played bet 3300, to set up turn ship, for 6000ish, but obv being prepared to get in on flop.

Qc10c 4h Jc.  11k in there, around 5500 back.  J feels like a bad card in alot of ways, not really fearful of a flush as feel would have gone in on flop vs pr + draw.

Im just not willing to fold here and play on with a 10bb stack, especially while holding nut club and oppos vry poor image (i.e could well still have best hand alot of the time).  Dwell ship, he calls and Im beat and miss the redraw.  Have had to play a couple of hands oop vs oppo (from blinds following his limpage), barrelling vry wide with joke hands.

Sorry to OTT the detail, just kind of stuck in my brain and would be curious to hear thoughts. 

Comments

  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    Just read through this (OCD as I say :P)

    After setting it out this way best line seems crai on flop perhaps.
  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited March 2012
    bet a lot smaller on the flop

    the jack on the turn is a bad card but its still a shove imo, you can still get called by worse and have outs when behind
  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    In Response to Re: Best line Flop/turn? Brain wont let this one go just yet. Thoughts appreciated.:
    bet a lot smaller on the flop the jack on the turn is a bad card but its still a shove imo, you can still get called by worse and have outs when behind
    Posted by yb
    Curious as to why you say this - would you mind expanding? 

    We arent deep enough to small ball, goal being to extract value from 1 of the deep lags & set up turn ship surely?

  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited March 2012
    In Response to Re: Best line Flop/turn? Brain wont let this one go just yet. Thoughts appreciated.:
    In Response to Re: Best line Flop/turn? Brain wont let this one go just yet. Thoughts appreciated. : Curious as to why you say this - would you mind expanding?  We arent deep enough to small ball, goal being to extract value from 1 of the deep lags & set up turn ship surely?
    Posted by AMYBR
    when you bet smaller it seems like they have fold equity, so they are more likely to shove with draws which is obviously good for us, and will probably also continue with a wider range of made hands as well. with the stack to pot ratio as it is it isn't like you need to bet big on the flop to get stacks in, i'd probably make it ~2k.
  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    I think if you said FE to these two gentlemen they would have it with a side order of garlic bread :p

    They have a Q/draw they ship.  As said in OP, they havent shown any sign of thought process in terms of bet sizing/position etc.

    Against people whith any thought process/understanding of strategy I prob do bet smaller, for the reasons you say.
    Thinking back setting up the turn shove was foremost in my mind.
  • grantorinograntorino Member Posts: 4,710
    edited March 2012
    bet flop about 2.5K intending to instacall a shove or ship any turn. I cant see anyway you can fold this shallow v stations once you make TPTK and turn some nut draws
  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    ty for feedback, was happy with this @ time.

    Perhaps could have bet smaller at time, yb is correct in that stacks goin just as easy.

    If I had it to do again I think I likely crai on flop.  stack/pot seem perfectly set up for it.

    As was he has K9 off, so..... myeh, hits an essential 3outer....myeh sigh.

  • gracie24gracie24 Member Posts: 227
    edited March 2012
    When people call with canine it is difficult to talk in terms of "thought processes". I tend to be scared of nutters and always over bet.
  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    Pretty much nail on head gracie.  OB was for value/get it in rather than scared tho.

    Amusingly if I have maybe 20k back I dont hate his call on flop, as there are alot of ways he can play hand IP on turn. 

    He doesnt bink I auto ship and have a stack I can work with.  Dont mind it really.

    Just annoyed me as he made a comment along lines of "Well played,.... Good bt on flop.. I nearly didnt call"........................

    I wasnt quite able to bite my tongue.  Ipod packed away and off to cash table myeh :p
  • AMYBRAMYBR Member Posts: 3,432
    edited March 2012
    bump.....
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