In Response to Re: 500 Millionth Hand Promotion : So what about the different numbers of players and hands on a weekend? Does this alter your prediction? Posted by Sky_Poker
I'm using a moving average over the time period. So it sort of accounts for that.
My currently calculation is, as of 31st March 16:15, for the 500m hand to be at about 19:14 on April 1st. But I think the rush to the tables will cause an obvious speed up hence my prediction of midday on the 1st April.
It's been a pretty consistent 290 hands per minute for the last week, varying only in +/- 0.2 hands per minute!
I'll post the as 2 parts of the table or it won't fit.
Rather than just have the average number of hands player over a long period I also included the minutes in the period between snapshots, hands in that period, hands per minute per period.
HandID
Snap Time
DOW
To 500m
Elap m
Hands
min/per
hands/p
h/m/p
499529549
31/03/2012 16:15
Sat
470451
346748
100704192
694
136130
196.15
499565070
31/03/2012 17:35
Sat
434930
346828
100739713
80
35521
444.01
499627345
31/03/2012 19:44
Sat
372655
346957
100801988
129
62275
482.75
499645853
31/03/2012 20:18
Sat
354147
346991
100820496
34
18508
544.35
499683989
31/03/2012 21:17
Sat
316011
347050
100858632
59
38136
646.37
499744587
31/03/2012 22:47
Sat
255413
347140
100919230
90
60598
673.31
499783170
31/03/2012 23:59
Sat
216830
347212
100957813
72
38583
535.88
499809452
01/04/2012 01:07
Sun
190548
347280
100984095
68
26282
386.50
499821810
01/04/2012 01:48
Sun
178190
347321
100996453
41
12358
301.41
As you can see Saturday afternoon about 196 hands per minute are played (at least in the 10 hour period before then).
Peak time was Saturday evening when 673 hands were being played a minute.
not fair want to play but my beloved LIVERPOOL are playing NEWCASTLE if it not because my dad and to brothers are Newcastle with the added bonus it`s one of my brothers 40th birthday for which i got him a sunderland b/day cake then i would play. can i win prize just for that )))
I predict the following, depending on sequence of events.
TPT Spornybol will completely fail his TPT imposed gagging challenge if,
1: He is involved in the 500m hand and loses to a 1-out river badbeat. SkyPoker will have to remove Area51 Forum as Sporny will take it over. THREAT LEVEL : SUPERNOVA
2: He is involved in either 500m hand +/- 101. The forum won't here the end of it until the 600m hand comes around. THREAT LEVEL : VOLCANIC ERUPTION
3: Another TPT member is in the 500m hand and posts to wind him up. THREAT LEVEL : TAKES THE HUFF, (lol, only kidding Sporny)
SkyPoker, you have been warned, LOL.
EDIT: Updated prediction 500m hand, April 1st 16.16
Comments
Does this alter your prediction?
My currently calculation is, as of 31st March 16:15, for the 500m hand to be at about 19:14 on April 1st. But I think the rush to the tables will cause an obvious speed up hence my prediction of midday on the 1st April.
It's been a pretty consistent 290 hands per minute for the last week, varying only in +/- 0.2 hands per minute!
Rather than just have the average number of hands player over a long period I also included the minutes in the period between snapshots, hands in that period, hands per minute per period.
Peak time was Saturday evening when 673 hands were being played a minute.
This falls off again after midnight.
What does this mean for 500m nth hand prediction?
bit like the surge for the fuel crisis )
1st April - 17:45hrs
TPT Spornybol will completely fail his TPT imposed gagging challenge if,
1: He is involved in the 500m hand and loses to a 1-out river badbeat.
SkyPoker will have to remove Area51 Forum as Sporny will take it over.
THREAT LEVEL : SUPERNOVA
2: He is involved in either 500m hand +/- 101.
The forum won't here the end of it until the 600m hand comes around.
THREAT LEVEL : VOLCANIC ERUPTION
3: Another TPT member is in the 500m hand and posts to wind him up.
THREAT LEVEL : TAKES THE HUFF, (lol, only kidding Sporny)
SkyPoker, you have been warned, LOL.
EDIT: Updated prediction 500m hand, April 1st 16.16