NL8 draw vs guy who i dont think is folding....

DrSharp

Ok, trying to get back on the horse so to speak after decorating and putting a new bathroom in before our new arrival decides to grace us with his presence. Making the most of my time now so started grinding again in the calm before the storm. :-D

Basically, this hand is the only one i had any reservations about in this mornings session. Its a drawing hand but reads on batfink tell me he has an ace and with his stack wont be folding. How do i play the streets here, i think i stationed myself. Should i shove flop despite me thinking this guy isnt folding because i think i am only approx 47% (check the math also please :-D).

Do i fold the turn?

Basically just a line check please guys, thanks alot.

Hand History #502622630 (09:09 07/04/2012)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
alanso	Sit out
humphry	Small blind		£0.04	£0.04	£6.23
AB1984	Big blind		£0.08	£0.12	£7.97
	Your hole cards	10 K
Time_Bomb	Fold
batfink	Raise		£0.16	£0.28	£2.34
DrSharp	Call		£0.16	£0.44	£10.39
humphry	Fold
AB1984	Call		£0.08	£0.52	£7.89
Flop
		A J 2
AB1984	Check
batfink	Bet		£0.39	£0.91	£1.95
DrSharp	Call		£0.39	£1.30	£10.00
AB1984	Fold
Turn
		3
batfink	Bet		£0.98	£2.28	£0.97
DrSharp	Call		£0.98	£3.26	£9.02
River
		K
batfink	All-in		£0.97	£4.23	£0.00
DrSharp	???

Dudeskin8

I don't like the calling down route as the impied odds are pretty awful with his stacksize, turn especially is not good, he has half his stack in and odds for flush as you know make this bad. 

Looking at pre flop I fold here, shorty has 30bbs so just no wriggle room postflop and even when you hit draw like here you have hardly any FE. Also even if you hit TP when facing a lot of heat you will probz be calling down with worst hand dominated.

Flop you probz have 4 Q's plus heart outs but with zero FE I'd just fold as you will get LOADS better spots at NL8 than this IMO.

DrSharp

In Response to Re: NL8 draw vs guy who i dont think is folding....:

I don't like the calling down route as the impied odds are pretty awful with his stacksize, turn especially is not good, he has half his stack in and odds for flush as you know make this bad.  Looking at pre flop I fold here, shorty has 30bbs so just no wriggle room postflop and even when you hit draw like here you have hardly any FE. Also even if you hit TP when facing a lot of heat you will probz be calling down with worst hand dominated. Flop you probz have 4 Q's plus heart outs but with zero FE I'd just fold as you will get LOADS better spots at NL8 than this IMO.
Posted by Dudeskin8

Have to agree with majority of that. Theres always at least one hand i feel i butchered in a session and this is the one today. Interesting analysis pre flop though, i'm in posn and its a min raise, is the call that bad? Did actually think about the 3-bet but his stack size dictated that was a big no no. lol.

Dudeskin8

If he was sat as deep as you it can be ok as you can make moves on some flops but 30bb effective makes it tough and -EV imo.

3betting though would be suicide at NL8 lol

grantorino

that shallow jam flop and race