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andybuck

e first day of the Aintree festival today and quite a lot of decent information through.

Today’s bets:

DODGING BULLETS (AINTREE 2.30) - 3 POINT WIN – 7/2 AVAILABLE.
VELOCE (FOLKESTONE 4.30) - 4 POINT WIN – 6/4 AVAILABLE.

Today’s Information:

Aintree 2.30
Dodging Bullets – Aintree should suit him much better than Cheltenham did and if anything he comes here in even better order. He seems to be improving all the time and although Grumeti will be a tough nut to crack, if he shows us what he has been showing at home in the last week he will take some stopping. 

Aintree 3.05
Riverside Theatre – He seems to have come out of his Cheltenham race well but you can never be 100% sure until you run them again. We’re not overly worried about the trip as he should stay on this flatter track. If he turns up in the same form as Cheltenham he’ll take a lot of beating, so we’re hopeful he has a bit left in the tank.

Folkestone 3.55
Curzon Line – He has been doing some really nice work at home and has improved a fair bit since he was last on the track. He should be at home here today and all being well should go close.

Aintree 4.15
Kid Cassidy – He has a lot of talent but is a bit of a monkey. He downed tools at Cheltenham as he wasn’t enjoying himself but hopefully Aintree will suit him much better. If he gets into a rhythm and starts to enjoy it hen he would have a great e/w chance here.

Folkestone 4.30
Veloce – He made a great start for us and has really thrived since. He has been working very well and should take some stopping again today.

Aintree 5.25
Veiled – She ran a fantastic race at Cheltenham and remains in great order. No problems with the trip and she has a great e/w chance again today.

Newton Abbot 5.45
Terfel’s Toscar – We have had problems with him but he seems fit and well now and has been working well. The trip should be no problem and all being well he should go very close.

Wolverhampton 8.55
Hambleton – In great form and should run well. Trip and track suit and he’ll be arriving on the scene late. If he can get some luck in running hopefully he will be able to get up on the line.

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andybuck

Today's selections:

2.30 - Aintree - Dodging Bullets. 3 pts win. Available at 7/2.
In recent seasons it's the class horses that have come to the fore in this race with the favourite having a particularly good record. Previous form in Graded company is a positive along with at least two previous victories over hurdles. French bred horses have won six of the last thirteen renewals. It's stating the obvious but the Triumph Hurdle (Countrywide Flame) is the key trial for this race but the Finesse Hurdle at Cheltenham (Grumeti after the demotion of Pearl Swan) and the Finale Hurdle at Chepstow (Countrywide Flame) have also proved useful pointers. Getting the seven pound sex allowance, Fillies have a good record in this race but their only representative, Beyeh, looks up against it despite missing the Cheltenham Festival. This a strong trends race and they point to the winner coming from a group comprising of Pearl Swan, Grumeti, Countrywide Flame and Hinterland but sometimes you have to go with what your eyes tell you and it isn't difficult to be impressed with what Dodging Bullets has achieved in his two runs to date over hurdles. A 93 rated runner from the flat he showed a bit of inexperience when making his debut over obstacles at Kempton in February but the way he was making up late ground on Grumeti marked him down as potentially a very good hurdler and he more than delivered that view in the Triumph. In a big field he could've easily been excused if he had backed out once the going got tough but he travelled well back in the pack before showing an impressive change of gears turning for home. He was upsides at the last before he was seemingly outstayed up the Cheltenham hill, eventually finishing a four length fourth. He may have got there too soon or may have simply ran out of gas but it was a fine effort on just his second start over hurdles. It's a big ask to expect a horse to lose it's maiden tag in a Grade One Novice race but Dodging Bullets looks the type who will relish a speed test on a flat track and he is open to any manner of improvement. He handled softer conditions on the flat in Ireland, producing his best effort in winning over ten furlongs on yielding/soft ground on his final start and the addition of the first time tongue tie could help him last home. He is the Trainer's second string on jockey bookings but he looks pacier than his stablemate Pearl Swan and a similar comment applies to his Triumph conqueror, Countrywide Flame. He may have more to fear from Grumeti who, like the selection, could also be held onto a bit longer this time. At a much bigger price Gottany O's could surprise a few and get competitive now the ground has eased but he needs to find major improvement to get the better of the principals.

andybuck

4.15 - Aintree - Free World. 1 pt e/w. Available at 10/1.
Novices have a good record in this race having won 9 of the last 17 renewals and it's equivalent race at the Cheltenham Festival, The Grand Annual, is the best guide to finding the winner. Previous experience in this race, preferably performing well, is a positive but it's not a race for those in advancing years with 22 of the last 23 winners being aged under ten. Weight is also a burden with only one winner in the last 12 years carrying more than 11-2. The market principals do well but it's not been a happy hunting ground for Paul Nicholls. Kid Cassidy, Astracad and Kumbeshwar are strong candidates from a stats perspective. Kumbeshwar fared best of those in the Grand Annual but it's possible the other two could get more competitive today. Kid Cassidy is a bit skittish and it wasn't surprising that he didn't seem to enjoy the hurly burly of the race and the undulations at Cheltenham. This test will suit him much better and if Tony McCoy gets him into a rhythm he will be a danger to all on ground he handles. Astracad had an interrupted preparation going into the Festival so he could improve on his seventh there but it's Free World, who caught the eye when falling four out in that race, who is preferred at a double figure price. He doesn't have the form figures to inspire but there is no doubting that he is a well handicapped horse if he is judged on his former ability when with Paul Nicholls. He has always promised more than he has actually delivered but he gets in here off a mark of 135 carrying 10-6 which is 11 pounds lower than when falling in the Topham at this meeting last season. With the exception of an easy win at Balinrobe his form had been pretty woeful leading into Cheltenham so it was a pleasant surprise to see him in the process of running much better before falling. How that fall will effect him or whether he is capable of putting two good runs together is anyone's guess but he with a yard who know how to win this race. Having taken it in 1989 and 1998 his Trainer hasn't had a runner in it since failed attempts between 2002-2006. Free World will handle the ground and if all is well with him the only concern remaining is his jumping. He made a few mistakes at Cheltenham and although they didn't stop his momentum he won't want to be doing similar here where they will be travelling that bit faster. Last year's winner Silk Drum, having changed yards since, runs from a five pound lower mark this time so from a handicapping perspective he holds a very good chance of a repeat. There were positive signs last time out at Doncaster but the first time tongue tie and cheekpieces may have been responsible for that and it remains to be seen whether those aids work as well again today. 

andybuck

525,aintree
Gullinbursti - 2 pts win. Available at 5/1.
Veiled - 1 pt win. Available at 10/1.
Trustan Times - 1 pt win. Available at 16/1.
Oscar Prairie - 0.5 pts e/w. Available at 25/1

shanks246

Walob Buck

andybuck

b u g g e r off shanks,,rickos not as good as me al