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-£ but most +ev. Is my math correct here?
dub1
Member Posts: 149
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancedub1Small blind £0.25£0.25£89.09VillainBig blind £0.50£0.75£57.01 Your hole cards67 Fold DealerFold dub1Raise £1.25£2.00£87.84VillainRaise £4.00£6.00£53.01dub1Call £3.00£9.00£84.84Flop 1053 dub1Check VillainBet £5.00£14.00£48.01dub1Raise £12.57£26.57£72.27VillainCall £7.57£34.14£40.44Turn K dub1Bet £14.50£48.64£57.77VillainAll-in £40.44£89.08£0.00dub1Call £25.94£115.02£31.83dub1Show67 VillainShowJJ River 7 VillainWinPair of Jacks£113.22 £113.22
Is my math correct?
we have 25% equity vs villains hand
(Edit, and vs villains range.
AA,KcKd,KcKh,KdKh,QQ,TT,AcKc,AdKd,AhKh,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,
KhQh,KcTc,KdTd,KhTh,QsTs,JsTs,AcKd,AcKh,AdKc,AdKh,AhKc,
AhKd,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,KcQd,KcQh,KcQs,KdQc,KdQh,KdQs,KhQc
,KhQd,KhQs,KcTd,KcTh,KcTs,KdTc,KdTh,KdTs,KhTc,KhTd,KhTs we have25% equity)
so if we fold we loss £31.07
so if we fold 4 times we loss £124.28
If we call we loss 3 times £171.03
And win 1 time £114.02
£171.03 - £114.02 = a total loss of £57.01
So Fold vs Call.
Fold we loss £31.07
Call we loss £14.25
So allthough -£ the most +ev play in this situation is to call.
Is my math correct?
we have 25% equity vs villains hand
(Edit, and vs villains range.
AA,KcKd,KcKh,KdKh,QQ,TT,AcKc,AdKd,AhKh,AsTs,KcQc,KdQd,
KhQh,KcTc,KdTd,KhTh,QsTs,JsTs,AcKd,AcKh,AdKc,AdKh,AhKc,
AhKd,AsKc,AsKd,AsKh,KcQd,KcQh,KcQs,KdQc,KdQh,KdQs,KhQc
,KhQd,KhQs,KcTd,KcTh,KcTs,KdTc,KdTh,KdTs,KhTc,KhTd,KhTs we have25% equity)
so if we fold we loss £31.07
so if we fold 4 times we loss £124.28
If we call we loss 3 times £171.03
And win 1 time £114.02
£171.03 - £114.02 = a total loss of £57.01
So Fold vs Call.
Fold we loss £31.07
Call we loss £14.25
So allthough -£ the most +ev play in this situation is to call.
Comments
OOP: Fold /> 4bet > Call IMO.
Villains also has no calling range and at a guess i'd say he's 3Betting 12%
10s+,A10o+, A9s+, All suited broadways and KQo
If played this way have to call turn once opened. Math is slghtly off, but still closer to a call than fold - ergo a call.
Bink & apologise.
You do the opposite of what I see and hear so much lately. You give yourself EVERY chance to with this pot. Sure, he has J's on this occasion.
BonB, we get creative, pick up equity and try to push him off what would often be a marginal holding.
I cant be a computor. Every hand oughtnt to be a cooler. One would think that creative aggressive poker is a good thing, rather than something to be criticised. Even though he is at the top of his range here, you still put him in a hard spot and still hold plenty of equity.
I may be hugely wrong, maybe it is better to play like a robot. Maybe this isnt great multi table approach. But it certainly isnt bad poker.
Some of the replys to the thread arn't making much sence.
Im not asking if my play is good or bad, Im asking someone to check my maths, as this isnt my strong point.
Also villain is raping me IP with these 3Bets, I do have a 4Bet bluff range and I'd guess that if I 4bet or folded vs villian than I'd be even money, that said I wanna make money by exploiting villian in this situation. so I've choose a 3Bet calling range with the intention on check/raiseing alot of low flops.
If anyone can tell me a better way to exploit villains 3Betting IP than please elaborate instead of telling me my play sux.
Input from some of the respected regs would be nice?
Only flaw in your maths is your taking it I have jacks, what if I have higher flush draw, or sets etc.
You could nearly be dead already.
Vs KK we have 23%
vs K10s we have 25%
vs AsQs we have 20%
and vs As10s 6.8%
But vs range its 25%.
Ok, I guess AsTs is only hand your bad against.
I would just unhappily snap call from your spot in that hand to be honest, too little time for me to do maths.
I just thought it would be a good hand to review for people in the forum, and to show that a -£ call can be better that a fold.
Hope someone can learn supm from all this.
I think my grasp on villains range is correct.
So are you saying that the villian cant be explioted in this situation? And i just have to except breaking even from folding 3/4 of the time and 4Betting 1/4 of the time?
Plus I already covered the math: "£25 into £89 with 12outs @ turn.If played this way have to call turn once opened. Math is slghtly off, but still closer to a call than fold - ergo a call.".