NL10 - call or do the shove thing

rancid

wada ya think
reads - got at least a 7 - oppo is ok'ish pretty ABC TAG

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Robbo67	Small blind		£0.05	£0.05	£17.49
cups	Big blind		£0.10	£0.15	£4.44
	Your hole cards	K 9
edwards100	Call		£0.10	£0.25	£0.81
omair1985	Fold
rancid	Raise		£0.30	£0.55	£20.60
tommy726	Fold
Robbo67	Call		£0.25	£0.80	£17.24
cups	Fold
edwards100	Call		£0.20	£1.00	£0.61
Flop
		7 7 6
Robbo67	Check
edwards100	Check
rancid	Bet		£0.50	£1.50	£20.10
Robbo67	Raise		£1.20	£2.70	£16.04
edwards100	Fold
rancid	Call		£0.70	£3.40	£19.40
Turn
		4
Robbo67	Bet		£1.90	£5.30	£14.14
rancid	Call		£1.90	£7.20	£17.50
River
		A
Robbo67	Bet		£2.60	£9.80	£11.54
rancid

simonnatur

This one looks to me like your winning. A good opponent must include flush draws as a good part of your range and would surely bet big with a house , hoping you have nut flush. The small river bet feels like a blocker.

KAM99

Its never a shove here, not ever really against a villain that has shown strength from the very start on a paired board. I've seen and heard doyle fold his flush draws on the flops of paired boards because you just never can be certain you are not already drawing utterly dead. The only bet I semi wonder about is his bet on the river, as its barely more than the turn and its either a super smart play of going for thin value hoping you'll shove, or done because he is unsure of his postion, or if he is just scared you'll fold if he goes bigger.

If i knew I was against a solid player I'd likely have got out of this hand as the flush didn't slow him down from betting, and if he just had a six or trips it might have done. Certainly if only the six I think he would have, and for certain when you called his flop 3bet. His most likely range is a 7 or 66, as otherwise he would have to be concerned you had the seven, and yet he never stopped betting. Overpair is possible due to the lighter bet on river, but I'd feel more doubtful on that.. /> **** maybe I'm giving him to much credit.

At this level as played I'd likely call the river, but not shove, and have a nasty feeling I might be well beat. At a higher level, not sure I'd have chased it on the flop. Depends on my knowledge of the villian in some cases.

EvilPingu

Call > Fold > Raise IMO.

My money is on sixes full.

DOHHHHHHH

I want to raise, his bet size is really small, almost looks like he's trying to get to showdown.

I dunno if you can raise/fold to a shove, I've forgot how to play cash, but I think calling is abit tight considering he can have so many worse hands that he will struggle to fold. 

Also dislike the raise pre after a 9xbb stack limps.

simonnatur

hhhmmmm, reference in previous post to overthinking nl10.

I guess a lot depends on your read on this player. Seems like pretty high level thinking for this level to make a tiny bet hoping to induce a raise. If you suspect he can be this tricky I suppose you have to play safe.

In game it would feel hard to raise in this spot, but against the average nl10 player, I wonder if you're leaving value on table too often

KAM99

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing:

I want to raise, his bet size is really small, almost looks like he's trying to get to showdown. I dunno if you can raise/fold to a shove, I've forgot how to play cash, but I think calling is abit tight considering he can have so many worse hands that he will struggle to fold.  Also dislike the raise pre after a 9xbb stack limps.
Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Maybe at this level, but honestly would you? I mean on a paired, A high , and 3 to a flush board would you really call a shove with light holdings? Can't see him calling with PP below Ace, nor some random hand with a 6. Maybe if he is holding a 7, but even then a shove on taht board is super strong generally, and not to often they bluffing that type of board I would think (assuming they can play). So for me I can't see to many weak or even moderate holdings calling a reraise river shove. So while cash game is all about maximising your profits its also about minimising losses, and I'm with pingu here that I think its 6's full, and I'd rather win or lose a moderate pot than get a 200bb stacking.

Maybe just me.. Be interested when we see the outcome of this one.

simonnatur

I thought we were taking it more or less as a given that he has at least a 7 here...

percival09

his bet sizings on both turn and river do not suggest a house imo 

it's difficult with stack sizes - if you raise surely you're commited

you're either raising to £6 and you'll have to call a shove OR flat call and potentially miss out on value

I'd probz wimp out and just flat because I can't be 100% he hasn't got a house here, but I really don't think he has. I'd say he's played 99/1010 badly or some random 7x hand

grantorino

ABC tags  entire range on flop is 7x? Doubtful imo

. Think its prob a call this deep but I would be tempted to raise, he may call off with worse flushes and 7x. Wouldnt be surprised at all if he turns over something like 99 if you flat

Dudeskin8

I'd just call but he's bets are quite small for a monster hand (I'd expect more on turn and at least £4-5 on river with a FH) so raising wouldn't be awful. 

If he does have a medium pair (99/TT/even JJ) though you most likely get him to fold with a raise on that board so value comes mainly from 7's, although he's betting, at least to me, looks weaker than a 7.

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing:

ABC tags  entire range on flop is 7x? Doubtful imo . Think its prob a call this deep but I would be tempted to raise, he may call off with worse flushes and 7x. Wouldnt be surprised at all if he turns over something like 99 if you flat
Posted by grantorino

Thanks for all replies, most of you are thinking what I am thinking -
Don't think house would raise flop and then bet turn and river this way
GT -sorry by turn i am leaning towards a 7x hand, obviously pre range is a tad wider )

The only issue I have is, if I raise will 7x call on that board

Dohhhhh - yeah to be honest didn't even look at ss my bad - just see the limp and auto raised lolz

DOHHHHHHH

Yeh assumed that was a mistake and you wouldn't normally do that, but wanted 1 part of my post to make sense at least.

What happened? PM me plz, I can't wait to find ooooooot !

BorinLoner

I agree that these bet sizes don't look like a full house, especially considering you continue in the hand after the flush draw comes in on the turn. (Although there are plenty of people out there that don't understand bet-sizing, so it's not 100% reliable) I think there's maybe an extra fiver there for you that might be called by a 7 or a weaker flush. You're definitely not committed for the rest if you do raise, though. If he were to shove over the top for an extra £5 or £6, I can't ever imagine that he's doing it with anything worse than the nut-flush. Even that would be a pretty light shove. So regardless of pot-odds, we should "know" that we're beat and save ourselves that fiver.

I wouldn't blame anyone for just making the call here. There's probably some thin value but, like most, I might chicken out and call. It doesn't look like a house but it could still be the nut-flush...

grantorino

Rancid, I meant his range when he c/r flop

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing:

Rancid, I meant his range when he c/r flop
Posted by grantorino

yeah maybe raises with overpairs and may continue the same on turn/river
At the time I just thought 7x
So you think range is weighted towards all hands I beat, so raise ?

grantorino

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing:

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing : yeah maybe raises with overpairs and may continue the same on turn/river At the time I just thought 7x So you think range is weighted towards all hands I beat, so raise ?
Posted by rancid

I think you beat a lot of his range, doesn't mean you should raise. Depends what he does with 7x and if he can have and call off with non nut flushes. He ain't calling off with jj etc  if you jam river

rancid

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing:

In Response to Re: NL10 - call or do the shove thing : I think you beat a lot of his range, doesn't mean you should raise. Depends what he does with 7x and if he can have and call off with non nut flushes. He ain't calling off with jj etc  if you jam river
Posted by grantorino

this is it, can't see how I can even click it back and fold if oppo shoves
Even if I do click it back, I may aswel shove if oppo is going to call either way with 7x

AMYBR

Only read OP.

Oppo raises you on paired board.  Either he is setting up play on later street or has a genuinely massive hand.

River bet looks a bit scared by him on river.  Think a BIG hand may go closer to 3/4 pot.

I'd be tempted to ship, but only if he is really bad as I dont see a worse hand calling us.  Almost seems like an OP that doesnt lie the A.