Variance or Form

jonjo75

I have been thinking lately about why MTT results seem to come in clumps , for example maybe for 3/4 weeks your onfire, it seems like you are cashing in the majority and final tabling a lot of tourneys and then you can go for 3/4 weeks or a lot longer with no results at all.
 Is this totally due to variance or is it that once you have a good result you maybe play more confidently and generally better and of course when you keep losing flips you generally play more passive.

Anybody who is on either a hot streek or a loosing run I would be interested to know whether they think they are playing any different or is just down to RUN GOOD?

daniTON

hi
i think it is due to running good,tournies can be very luck dependent unlike cash games or even SNGs.all the pros seem too have good times followed by bad times,you hear of them winning a lot,but you dont see the shear amount of tournies they enter before cashing! luck will dominate over even the best players in tournies,remember darvon mooon at the world series? but obviosly if you`re a solid player then you will always have a better chance to cash then the average donk but you`re still subject to the luck swings that tournies have unfortunatly,most pppl make a living on cash tables because of the uncertainty of tournies.are you prodominantly a mtt player?because a tournie payer has a unique set of skils for tournie play,you probably know all that ive said lol but i didnt get much form your thread so forgive me if im telling you how to suck eggs haha

68Trebor

 I think it is just the way it goes. I have experienced a similar thing with the National Lottery. For the last few months I have won nothing and then in the last 2 weeks I have had 4 nos on Lotto, 3 nos on Thunderball and then 3 nos + bonus on Thunderball.

 It's just the way it rolls.

profman15

I actually think that you have a point, Jonjo. However , i think its more to do with the confidence of a win/good result PLUS a bit of luck too. When MTT take a downswing, its easy to question your strategy and consequently it puts some doubt in your mind. I suppose its part of the learning experience. Interesting question though....

Dazler

Its a bit of both, you need luck on your side in any game more so on mtts, but it also depends on your form and how well you are playing, If you go out with a massive hand and lose to a runner runner or they hit fh to your nut flush or you hit st8 on flop they hit fh or flush on river then there is nothing you can do as you played well just got unlucky but there are times where you know you could have played better and didnt fold when you should have this is where luck has nothing to do with it but you just either get married to a hand or could have played badly. If you constantly go deep in an mtt but dont cash your just very unlucky as you must have played well to get that far, but if you are constantly going out early in mtts then you should be looking at why this is happening and review your hands as your prob doing something wrong. We all win mtts with a bit of luck but you do def need skill. Sometimes you will get a good streak of luck and win a few, so as long as you are playing well and luck is on your side too its a winning combination. You cant have one with out the other.