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SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life

The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
edited May 2012 in The Poker Clinic
Sorry as this is a other site hand, but really think this is a desision, would like to discuss

 #2012050271, $10+$1 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (300/600) - 2012/05/16 2:06:14 WET [2012/05/15 21:06:14 ET]
Table '2012050271 385' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: messkunst (11195 in chips)
Seat 2: the_donscott (34519 in chips)
Seat 3: __2cb__ (43852 in chips)
Seat 4: Luís Corrêa (59234 in chips)
Seat 5: jorguhna (25994 in chips)
Seat 6: YANTAN 777 (25311 in chips)
Seat 7: tutz_aml (4512 in chips)
Seat 8: Expolive (36531 in chips)
Seat 9: Mzungu (28895 in chips)



messkunst: posts the ante 70
the_donscott: posts the ante 70
__2cb__: posts the ante 70
Luís Corrêa: posts the ante 70
jorguhna: posts the ante 70
YANTAN 777: posts the ante 70
tutz_aml: posts the ante 70
Expolive: posts the ante 70
Mzungu: posts the ante 70
messkunst: posts small blind 300
the_donscott: posts big blind 600



*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to the_donscott [5c Ac]


__2cb__: folds
Luís Corrêa: folds
jorguhna: folds
YANTAN 777: folds
tutz_aml: folds
Expolive: raises 1200 to 1800
Mzungu: folds
messkunst: folds
the_donscott: calls 1200



*** FLOP *** [2c As Qc]
the_donscott: checks
Expolive: bets 34661 and is all-in
the_donscott: ????
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Comments

  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG Member Posts: 7,155
    edited May 2012
    fold or 3 bet pre

    as played, you are defo beat, so its a question of if you wish to pay to hit a club, or possibly 2 pair, but theres no garentee that is good...

    I think you can fold the flop but like i say i hate a flat preflop generally.
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  • TommyDTommyD Member Posts: 4,389
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    fold or 3 bet pre as played, you are defo beat, so its a question of if you wish to pay to hit a club, or possibly 2 pair, but theres no garentee that is good... I think you can fold the flop but like i say i hate a flat preflop generally.
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    Agree with fold/3 bet pre greg but i do not agree that we are always beat here.  Do we have any reads or observations on this guy Don?

    As played i call.  Then again I'm good at getting there.
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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG Member Posts: 7,155
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : Agree with fold/3 bet pre greg but i do not agree that we are always beat here.  Do we have any reads or observations on this guy Don? As played i call.  Then again I'm good at getting there.
    Posted by TommyD
    a weird over jam like this is normally the nuts in my experience, or at least something they think is the nuts. I think that KJcc  or K10cc are two of the possible hands that we are beating...
    Ok very occasionally it can be a tilt ship with not a lot, but again, i really dont wanna call off my mtt on a draw... or do i!? :) tempting innit!

    U really thing our top pair is good enuf to make the call? surely we have kicker issues, but at least our clubs can get there.. but will they get there often enough to justify a call~?

    nice post Donald btw! I know 100% your not folding, but at the time of posting i didnt know the result... i do now :)
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  • percival09percival09 Member Posts: 3,804
    edited May 2012
    I call because I'm like WOWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWWW so many outs
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  • TommyDTommyD Member Posts: 4,389
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : a weird over jam like this is normally the nuts in my experience, or at least something they think is the nuts. I think that KJcc  or K10cc are two of the possible hands that we are beating... Ok very occasionally it can be a tilt ship with not a lot, but again, i really dont wanna call off my mtt on a draw... or do i!? :) tempting innit! U really thing our top pair is good enuf to make the call? surely we have kicker issues, but at least our clubs can get there.. but will they get there often enough to justify a call~? nice post Donald btw! I know 100% your not folding, but at the time of posting i didnt know the result... i do now :)
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    I'm still blind to the result so I will continue.  I get where you're coming from Greg but I need some more info on the guy, hopefully Don has it.  I've seen this be everything from the nuts to a gut shot on that site.  A lot of people over there don't want to be bluffed so much they just jam, I really don't think he's that nutted here.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : I'm still blind to the result so I will continue.  I get where you're coming from Greg but I need some more info on the guy, hopefully Don has it.  I've seen this be everything from the nuts to a gut shot on that site.  A lot of people over there don't want to be bluffed so much they just jam, I really don't think he's that nutted here.
    Posted by TommyD
    guy has been opening lots in posision, lots of normal cbets nothing like this, cbet folding mostly. This was sort of my reason for the call pre rather than the 3b.

    Checked to check raise this flop then that happened. My mind just melted.
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2012
    call, why would oppo just shove Ax - is oppo that bad )

    does look like KJcc or some combo

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  • BigHawk89BigHawk89 Member Posts: 627
    edited May 2012
    Snap call. Ive played in plenty of these tournaments on stars they have huge fields so to give yourself any chance of going deep you have to have a few gambles to get a big stack. If your going to call a raise with A5 clubs OOP then hit that flop you cannot fold. I wouldnt be totally suprised if you where ahead here tbh.
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  • hurst05hurst05 Member Posts: 1,567
    edited May 2012
    why call that hand pre if your just gonna fold the effective nut flop for you
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  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    fold or 3 bet pre as played, you are defo beat, so its a question of if you wish to pay to hit a club, or possibly 2 pair, but theres no garentee that is good... I think you can fold the flop but like i say i hate a flat preflop generally.
    Posted by GREGHOGG

    Why 3bet a hand that flops well? Why fold ahand that flops well whilst deep stacked against most likely weak opposition?

    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    why call that hand pre if your just gonna fold the effective nut flop for you
    Posted by hurst05



    because we are trying to make +ev decisions whilst at the same time remembering that we should be hugely +ev versus the field so we dont need to take every thin edge, waiting for a bigger edge can reduce our variance.



    Imo call pre. Imo now assign a selection of ranges for hands he could play this way, then stove those ranges see which range you think is most likely see how different the equities are and decide from there based on the the number or runners left, your percieved edge, your seat position etc etc.
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  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE Member Posts: 2,188
    edited May 2012
    what he means is click call
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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG Member Posts: 7,155
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : Why 3bet a hand that flops well? Why fold ahand that flops well whilst deep stacked against most likely weak opposition? In Response to  Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : because we are trying to make +ev decisions whilst at the same time remembering that we should be hugely +ev versus the field so we dont need to take every thin edge, waiting for a bigger edge can reduce our variance. Imo call pre. Imo now assign a selection of ranges for hands he could play this way, then stove those ranges see which range you think is most likely see how different the equities are and decide from there based on the the number or runners left, your percieved edge, your seat position etc etc.
    Posted by beaneh
    because i dont have your post flop skills OOP

    suppose theres only one way to gain them then... sigh

    As for the stove stuff... WOW..... ok u have a timebank so u can do this, but its way above anything id ever consider...

    #ifeelikeagiantfish
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  • GREGHOGGGREGHOGG Member Posts: 7,155
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    what he means is click call
    Posted by LOL_RAISE
    lol

    poty!
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  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : because i dont have your post flop skills OOP suppose theres only one way to gain them then... sigh As for the stove stuff... WOW..... ok u have a timebank so u can do this, but its way above anything id ever consider... #ifeelikeagiantfish
    Posted by GREGHOGG
    looool no sir

    I don't mean in game


    click time get stove out do 30 calculations and analyse the data.

    I mean now we've got a spot that after the fact we aren't sure about spend the time comparing equities.


    what happens when he has too many random draws that we crush
    what equity do we have vs just sets
    what equity do we have vs sets+ some draws + some spackouts with gutters

    compare those equities, compare the chances of each happening, choose your action call or fold now based on what you've just worked out.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : Why 3bet a hand that flops well? Why fold ahand that flops well whilst deep stacked against most likely weak opposition? In Response to  Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life : because we are trying to make +ev decisions whilst at the same time remembering that we should be hugely +ev versus the field so we dont need to take every thin edge, waiting for a bigger edge can reduce our variance. Imo call pre. Imo now assign a selection of ranges for hands he could play this way, then stove those ranges see which range you think is most likely see how different the equities are and decide from there based on the the number or runners left, your percieved edge, your seat position etc etc.
    Posted by beaneh
    im seriously hoping theres no sarcasm here lol, either way good post.

    Ty ill stove right now and get back to you, i never actually thought of using stove in game,

    Much to learn young don.
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  • beanehbeaneh Member Posts: 4,079
    edited May 2012
    it's not for in game. it's for out of game. but having done this for this hand, next time you face a similar spot you are in a better position to make a good decision.

    I have no idea how my post could be seen as sarcastic.
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited May 2012
    Stove results

    Ive tried to balance out his range, as i said hes cbet folded lots so the overbet shove could just as easy be him just saying i aint letting you make a move here.

    The good news is i rarley use a timebank, as a result i think i had about 180seconds to use here, which would be enough i think

    Against just sets we have 30% equity.

    Against all PP pairs inc sets we have 86% equity.

    Against all aces and all PP pairs we have 69% equity

    Against all aces, all PP pairs, and KTcc and KJcc we hold at 69% equity,

    Against all aces, all PP pairs, all suited cons in clubs we have 71% equity

    Looks like its a call then.

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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: SCOOP event 27 Lower, TP+NFD facing massive overbet shove for tournament life:
    it's not for in game. it's for out of game. but having done this for this hand, next time you face a similar spot you are in a better position to make a good decision. I have no idea how my post could be seen as sarcastic.
    Posted by beaneh
    ah sorry, i struggle to take it in sometimes, expessially when everyone else is saying 3b or fold. I though i just got juiced on the implied odds.

    Although im not saying your wrong, the reasons you said obviously where partly the reasons i made the call, as well as the opponent ccbet folding alot of the time so i felt if i missed i could make a move.

    Ty i have stoved and results seem positive as long as i can make sure he doesnt do it purley with sets.

    ty beaneh :)
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited May 2012
    I agree with hursto why call pre if u  even think fold postflop..

    I dont mind flatting pre but getting it in always on this flop. your win more then enough longterm. Clicking fold post flop would be criminal without 10000;s hands with villain
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  • YOUNG_GUNYOUNG_GUN Member Posts: 8,948
    edited May 2012
    PS- i bet reason you have posted this is results orientated...
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