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NL4 AKs facing donk bet

ameliorateameliorate Member Posts: 33
edited May 2012 in The Poker Clinic
Is it OK to put villain all in here? 

I have overcards / gutshot / nut flush draw.

I have been at this table less than 40 mins and been dealt AA once KK once JJ once (flopped a set) and AK 3 times so I've been pretty active.  Usually I would raise a donk bet here but if he calls the raise he is committed anyway.

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalancexSmall blind £0.02£0.02£3.70xxxBig blind £0.04£0.06£3.26 Your hole cardsKA   mitch1960Call £0.04£0.10£6.42ameliorateRaise £0.20£0.30£7.21pwazzaFold    xFold    xxxCall £0.16£0.46£3.10mitch1960Fold    Flop  423   xxxBet £0.46£0.92£2.64ameliorateRaise £3.30£4.22£3.91xxxAll-in £2.64£6.86£0.00
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Comments

  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2012

    12 live out - spades + any 5 = 48%

    6 could be dead outs - your aces and kings

    if all outs are live then that's 18 outs = 70%


    you have no FE, or maybe just a little

    a lot depends on what range you put oppo on for donking pot

    at best we are facing draw/1 pr hands
    worst we are facing set/2 pair hands

    you could just call, think the shove is fine though with what oppo has behind






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  • simonnatursimonnatur Member Posts: 330
    edited May 2012
    irrespective of what he had in this hand, I think it will be profitable in the long run to shove all in anytime you have this many outs
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  • Dudeskin8Dudeskin8 Member Posts: 6,228
    edited May 2012
    Yeah got to get it all in here, a lot of the time this is a one pair hand like any 4 or some mid pair like 88/99 and against them you have bags of outs.

    Also he might have a worse FD where you're a massive fave.
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  • LOL_RAISELOL_RAISE Member Posts: 2,188
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: NL4 AKs facing donk bet:
    12 live out - spades + any 5 = 48% 6 could be dead outs - your aces and kings if all outs are live then that's 18 outs = 70% you have no FE, or maybe just a little a lot depends on what range you put oppo on for donking pot at best we are facing draw/1 pr hands worst we are facing set/2 pair hands you could just call, think the shove is fine though with what oppo has behind
    Posted by rancid
    18 outs is not 70% equity
    Board: 2s 3s 4h
    Dead: 

        equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
    Hand 0:     61.717%      60.81%     00.91%                602             9.00   { AsKs }
    Hand 1:     38.283%      37.37%     00.91%                370             9.00   { 9c9h }
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  • The_Don90The_Don90 Member Posts: 9,814
    edited May 2012
    If your raising your raising to get it in.
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: NL4 AKs facing donk bet:
    In Response to Re: NL4 AKs facing donk bet : 18 outs is not 70% equity Board: 2s 3s 4h Dead:      equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    Hand 0:     61.717%      60.81%     00.91%                602             9.00   { AsKs } Hand 1:     38.283%      37.37%     00.91%                370             9.00   { 9c9h }
    Posted by LOL_RAISE

    close enough !
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  • KAM99KAM99 Member Posts: 773
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: NL4 AKs facing donk bet:
    In Response to Re: NL4 AKs facing donk bet : 18 outs is not 70% equity Board: 2s 3s 4h Dead:      equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied    Hand 0:     61.717%      60.81%     00.91%                602             9.00   { AsKs } Hand 1:     38.283%      37.37%     00.91%                370             9.00   { 9c9h }
    Posted by LOL_RAISE
    Think against a random range of hands he would be close to 70% equity though if his outs are live I think. Against one particular hand of course that will change equity to a specfic number. Not sure what it would be against every possible hand he might shove though, and can't be bothered to work it out either. hehe

    As to the hand itself. Sure shove is fine as little point in raise etc due to his stack size, and whatever he has you will have outs to win the hand.
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2012
    versus overpairs + draws you are around 60%

        equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
    Hand 0:     57.402%      56.69%     00.71%              26940           337.50   { AsKs }
    Hand 1:     42.598%      41.89%     00.71%              19905           337.50   { QQ-55 }

    versus whole range

        equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
    Hand 0:     54.996%      53.19%     01.81%              70559          2399.00   { AsKs }
    Hand 1:     45.004%      43.20%     01.81%              57303          2399.00   { QQ-22, AQs-A2s, 42s+, 32s, 53o+, 42o+, 32o }


    hands you in bad shape to

        equity     win     tie           pots won     pots tied   
    Hand 0:     39.501%      38.59%     00.91%              13755           323.00   { AsKs }
    Hand 1:     60.499%      59.59%     00.91%              21239           323.00   { 44-22, 42s+, 32s, 42o+, 32o }
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  • EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited May 2012
    Getting the money in here is fine.
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