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Calculations please

ClintonH83ClintonH83 Member Posts: 431
edited May 2012 in The Poker Clinic
Can someone tell me the proper calculations on this hand? Im not very good at Math but I think its about 56% vs 43% in my favour? On him to call my all in ive worked out the pot should be at least 6000? Dunno how close i am like i say im not that good at Math
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
ClintonH83 Small blind  40.00 40.00 2570.00
Gambler 1 Big blind  80.00 120.00 4577.50
 Your hole cards
  • Q
  • Q
   
Gambler 2 Call  80.00 200.00 3783.00
Mizroe Fold     
bigdeebee Fold     
mantock93 Fold     
ClintonH83 Raise  280.00 480.00 2290.00
Gambler 1Call  240.00 720.00 4337.50
Gambler 2Call  240.00 960.00 3543.00
Flop
  
  • 6
  • 2
  • J
   
ClintonH83 All-in  2290.00 3250.00 0.00
Gambler 1Call  2290.00 5540.00 2047.50
Gambler 2Call  2290.00 7830.00 1253.00
Turn
  
  • 5
   
Gambler 1All-in  2047.50 9877.50 0.00
Gambler 2 All-in  1253.00 11130.50 0.00
gambler 1Unmatched bet  794.50 10336.00 794.50
ClintonH83 Show
  • Q
  • Q
   
Gambler 1 Show
  • 3
  • 4
   
Gambler 2 Show
  • 7
  • Q
   
River
  
  • 8
   
Gambler 1Win Straight to the 6 10336.00

Comments

  • EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited May 2012
    Super standard. Not sure what number 2 is doing though, living up to his new name I guess :P
  • ClintonH83ClintonH83 Member Posts: 431
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    Super standard. Not sure what number 2 is doing though, living up to his new name I guess :P
    Posted by EvilPingu
    Are my Math right tho?
  • EvilPinguEvilPingu Member Posts: 3,462
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    In Response to Re: Calculations please : Are my Math right tho?
    Posted by ClintonH83
    Idk - it's not just about how much equity he has against QQ that determines whether he's right to call, it's how much equity he has against your entire range. Do you do the same thing with sets, and bigger diamond draws, where he has less outs (as few as 3 outs if you have 2 diamonds, one of which is 5d)?

    Thing is, you've got an overpair, you're not going anywhere.
    #1 assumes he has 12 outs, so almost flipping, and knows that #2 is never folding in a million years either regardless of his cards, so basically dead money in the pot as #2 will be drawing super thin most of the time. Therefore, it's the correct call from #1 IMO.
  • ClintonH83ClintonH83 Member Posts: 431
    edited May 2012
    I agree he has alot of outs and if id of made it half the pot of coure he has to call but i make it 2290 for him to call to win 3250! Its like a 0.45/1! Also if he would of been in #2 position and it was the same situation again fair play he has to call but i just find this Gambling at its best!

    I mean he didnt even shove to get rid of #2 with his out! So he'll gamble half your stack on a 0.45/1 but wont go all in to push the other guy off it! 




     
  • KAM99KAM99 Member Posts: 773
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    I agree he has alot of outs and if id of made it half the pot of coure he has to call but i make it 2290 for him to call to win 3250! Its like a 0.45/1! Also if he would of been in #2 position and it was the same situation again fair play he has to call but i just find this Gambling at its best! I mean he didnt even shove to get rid of #2 with his out! So he'll gamble half your stack on a 0.45/1 but wont go all in to push the other guy off it!   
    Posted by ClintonH83
    You're right about the maths for QQ vs flush draw, but he hasn't seen your hand, so as pingu says its not about him calling based on that hand, but on your range.. That said its not a great call, but its pretty standard from lot of players that are happy to gamble a flush draw even if they know they are behind.
  • ClintonH83ClintonH83 Member Posts: 431
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    In Response to Re: Calculations please : You're right about the maths for QQ vs flush draw, but he hasn't seen your hand, so as pingu says its not about him calling based on that hand, but on your range.. That said its not a great call, but its pretty standard from lot of players that are happy to gamble a flush draw even if they know they are behind.
    Posted by KAM99
    Mate the guy hasnt got a range on me! He's not ot got a clue what day it is lol He's proved that pre and not shoving the flop! He's just a gambler! If id of had him covered he'd of folded but because it was only half his stack he'll gamble it away hoping to hit!

    But anyway thats a different issue i just wanted to know if my Math was right
  • KAM99KAM99 Member Posts: 773
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    In Response to Re: Calculations please : Mate the guy hasnt got a range on me! He's not ot got a clue what day it is lol He's proved that pre and not shoving the flop! He's just a gambler! If id of had him covered he'd of folded but because it was only half his stack he'll gamble it away hoping to hit! But anyway thats a different issue i just wanted to know if my Math was right
    Posted by ClintonH83
    Never said he played a wise hand, and pretty sure i said he like many that are happy to gamble on a flush draw, and highly likely he didn't range you or have a clue of the odds of his hands. You got it in good and got outdrawn, it will happen often at those odds. As you well know I have no doubt. :D
  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited May 2012
    it's a flip, pot should be closer to 4000 imo to maake the call

    but hey it's poker, people gamble !


  • profman15profman15 Member Posts: 1,808
    edited May 2012
    Hi Clinton
    Interesting one and i've enjoyed seeing that my calcs match yoursfrom pokerstove....IT DOES WORK!!!

    He knows he's behind but because of the other players money in the pot it IS a good bet pot odds wise. Yes he should have gone all-in to make a side-pot with the other player or push him out but that doesn't detract from the fact that there is, asnear as **** it, justification for making the bet chips wise.

     Mind what was the other chap in the pot for........maybe there was something good on tv !!!!
  • simonnatursimonnatur Member Posts: 330
    edited May 2012
    Your %'s are spot on. Dont know how you calculated them, but i double checked using "Poker Equity" app which is available free for android phones and works just like pokerstove.

    I agree many players just like a gamble in spots like this. I think he's not far wrong in calling given the potential for the other player to remain in the pot. Given that he is drawing he has no reason to want to push the other player out of the pot.

    I dont think its right to use maths and pot odds in isolation to justify a call in this situation. This ignores the massive increase in chip utility from potentially winning this pot and the greater chance to go on and win the whole thing. 
  • jakallyjakally Member Posts: 421
    edited May 2012

    You got to ask yourself, whether you would've posted this hand if you had won.
    I know you are saying you want to know the odds (although you seem to know them anyway), but you have erred towards criticising the other guys play following some replies.

    Too easy to get frustrated by suck outs - we all do - but lots more productive spending time looking at your own play, and where you can improve.
  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited May 2012
    your flop bet is way too big, b/c ~500 imo

    and against your hand his call is just about +chip ev but that shouldn't really concern you
  • ClintonH83ClintonH83 Member Posts: 431
    edited May 2012

    I generally just wanted to know if id calculated the % and pot odds right? Ive already posted the hand in BB&V forum and had a moan about it! I posted it in the Clinic because ive been trying to get to grips with % and pot odds and ive not go an app or pokerstove this was all brain power lol

    So im abit confused now because like i say ive been getting to grips with pot odds so id of folded here with my calculations so you saying in this situation pot odds doesnt matter??

  • KAM99KAM99 Member Posts: 773
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    I generally just wanted to know if id calculated the % and pot odds right? Ive already posted the hand in BB&V forum and had a moan about it! I posted it in the Clinic because ive been trying to get to grips with % and pot odds and ive not go an app or pokerstove this was all brain power lol So im abit confused now because like i say ive been getting to grips with pot odds so id of folded here with my calculations so you saying in this situation pot odds doesnt matter??
    Posted by ClintonH83
    Pot odds vs Hand odds to hit do matter of course, but they aren't always the last and only factor to take into account. Format you are playing can matter, and then you have to factor in that some players are just not doing any of that stuff and don't care to learn it.

    I mean you put this is BB&V thread, but its not really a badbeat, but maybe variance I guess. As for the guy playing the 34. Well some people can't fold ANY suited cards. I mean how often do you hear the "but they were suited" from donks with no idea that suited adds  about 2% to a hands overall strength. And often if they play suited cards they won't go anywhere if they hit their flush draw even if they bust out.

    Saw you complain about it and your sick of it etc in the BB&V thread. Well seriously if that sickens you then you might be right about poker, as poker is a game of long term, and you are going to lose hands when you are ahead, and in this one you were not that far ahead to make it anything other than pretty standard beat. Be glad people put their money in behind as it would suck more if they didn't. 
  • simonnatursimonnatur Member Posts: 330
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    I generally just wanted to know if id calculated the % and pot odds right? Ive already posted the hand in BB&V forum and had a moan about it! I posted it in the Clinic because ive been trying to get to grips with % and pot odds and ive not go an app or pokerstove this was all brain power lol So im abit confused now because like i say ive been getting to grips with pot odds so id of folded here with my calculations so you saying in this situation pot odds doesnt matter??
    Posted by ClintonH83

    I'm not coming down one side or the other and saying it's right or wrong. But some players' approach to tournaments is that they will either build a dominating stack early or bust out and move on to the next tourney.

    If you want a good read on tournament strategy and a fuller exploration of this approach I'ld recommend looking out for Arnold Snyder's "The Poker Tournament Formula"

  • ybyb Member Posts: 1,471
    edited May 2012
    he needs ~41.3% equity to call and against your hand he has ~41.8%
  • jakallyjakally Member Posts: 421
    edited May 2012
    In Response to Re: Calculations please:
    ive not go an app or pokerstove this was all brain power lol
    Posted by ClintonH83
    It would be quicker to download Pokerstove, than post this thread.
    Do it - if you are genuinely interested in odds, you will use it loads.
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