Turn is a blank surely? I'd bet summat like £139 & prepare to shove the river! 4 would be a fun river card Posted by DOHHHHHHH
In my eyes the 5h is good and a bad card but definitely not a blank imo, bad because it completes a few draws that player 1 could have in his range, again bad because a set of 44 looks a little worse to the holder possibly if its out there ovc, it also adds another flush to the mix, it may hit villains ranges although unlikely, it just means that we cant slow play or make a small bet to induce imo, the risk of being called and facing the prospects of an ugly river is too high so i prefer and possibly being forced to bet big and hope i get called and if i am beat so be it.
I have a question about the flop which may seem abit basic for the depth we are going into on this hand. If we had raised the flop and got faltted or raised again by player 2 does player 1 have the odds to call/shove if he has the NFD if he is getting 2:1 on his money?
Bet just the right amount to make sure if they raise their commited to calling us. Anything £120 upwards probably achieves this, although id prefer 150-200 Too close to the pot we leave too much FE at the current stage but if we bet to small we dont kill their FE if they raise. So if we bet £150-£200ish their re-raise would be £300-£400 min allowing too litttle back to fold anything other than a bluff which i dont think they can have anymore.
you checked on the flop to try to indicate lack of nut-ness with the drawy board you want to try to feign a steal, and also you don't want, as you say, to face a tough river with made draws. Shove, and hope someone reads it as a steal. Worst case is they fold and at least you have protected your hand, and if they hit their draw c'est le poker. Thanks for giving us an opportunity to discuss the hand, although a bit embarrasing to be commenting on your play. Posted by GELDY
Board misread. Player one check, tommy Cbet, was 3bet and check raised with a 4bet by player one. Shove works I guess as one method, but against good players they would need a hand that likely beats us to call, as even 44 likely folds given action so far. Think I prefer betting out in the £150-£200 range and not folding. Each to their own though.
In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots : Board misread. Player one check, tommy Cbet, was 3bet and check raised with a 4bet by player one. Shove works I guess as one method, but against good players they would need a hand that likely beats us to call, as even 44 likely folds given action so far. Think I prefer betting out in the £150-£200 range and not folding. Each to their own though. Posted by KAM99
I would have continued raising pf - the reason not to is to feign weakness (or at least lack of nut-ness). So how to continue with that theme? Checking risks the difficult river. That leaves a value bet or a shove. Based on TommyD's reads he has to decide which might be regarded as most flakey. My guess is that he has been known to shove with air on a wet board - and hence that move gives some possibility of working with the least worry about the river.
In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots : I would have continued raising pf - the reason not to is to feign weakness (or at least lack of nut-ness). So how to continue with that theme? Checking risks the difficult river. That leaves a value bet or a shove. Based on TommyD's reads he has to decide which might be regarded as most flakey. My guess is that he has been known to shove with air on a wet board - and hence that move gives some possibility of working with the least worry about the river. Posted by GELDY
Maybe, though in some respects the call on the flop shows sometimes more strength than raising as you still have one peson to act that was happy to 3bet the flop, and could still reopen the betting. So sometimes that call on flop can look super strong. Part of the reason the hand is interesting. Not sure they would read the shove as a bluff that deep in most cases after the flop action in 3 way pot. Smaller bet can look a little blocking for a draw and my draw a reraise from someone that has made hand like 44, bt a shove would be a little tough to call with 44 i think.
We most likely still have the best hand, and it's unlikely missed draws are going to bluff at any point, therefore we may as well try and get value now.
I think betting the turn is probably best. We most likely still have the best hand, and it's unlikely missed draws are going to bluff at any point, therefore we may as well try and get value now. Anything just under half pot is ok. Posted by jakally
Can i ask why you would bet less half pot? thanks.
I think our range does not differ with regards to sizing, and this is a rare situation to ever have a balnced range, imo all we are doing is giving them a decent price if they have a combo draw (straight + flush etc), and by betting <half pot we are giving the first person />3-1 (good odds for a 25%shot), if the first player just flats then the UTG player can also call getting a great price if he has a 20% shot i.e a flush draw.
If we knew an opponent had specifically &d5d, it would be a small mistake to bet half pot.
But we don't know that, and it's just as likely we are up against AdQd and 44.
If we bet 150, we can still get calls from hands which are making a mistake by calling this number, and we leave enough room for someone to jam, thinking they have fold equity.
If we want to bet these spots as a bluff, then 150 turn, nearly pot river, will be much more effective than 250, half pot.
The weakness in this, is given the strength we have shown, it's not that likely we will have a bluff at this point obv.
We are trying to get good players to make mistakes versus us, and making bet sizing generic, gives them a little bit more opportunity to do this.
tbh I just dont overthink this spot too much given reads posted in OP & lvling war between the three as described.
Am firing halfish pot partly to protect my hand and for value vs a wider range than has been discussed given reads. Board is just to wet to even think of crai incase he takes free card and were just not folding, so it can only be halfpot+ to snap
Without reads and dynamic described I'd be giving it a lot more thought.
But with the intrest on flop (+ lvling war) I would have tried to get it in vs pr + FD etc.
If we knew an opponent had specifically &d5d, it would be a small mistake to bet half pot. But we don't know that, and it's just as likely we are up against AdQd and 44. If we bet 150, we can still get calls from hands which are making a mistake by calling this number, and we leave enough room for someone to jam, thinking they have fold equity. If we want to bet these spots as a bluff, then 150 turn, nearly pot river, will be much more effective than 250, half pot. The weakness in this, is given the strength we have shown, it's not that likely we will have a bluff at this point obv. We are trying to get good players to make mistakes versus us, and making bet sizing generic, gives them a little bit more opportunity to do this. Posted by jakally
Thanks for your reply, i think the bold bit is really important because we bet here with our value range almost always, i still prefer a bigger bet given all the information although i highly value your point you made at the end of your post.
It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back?
Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy.
In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots : Thanks for your reply, i think the bold bit is really important because we bet here with our value range almost always, i still prefer a bigger bet given all the information although i highly value your point you made at the end of your post. It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back? Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy. Posted by WHOAMI196
+1 Excellent read altho my brain is starting to hurt!. @ Tommy - to continue the Top Gun analogy there's a bit in it that runs something like "Boss this bogey is all over me! Do I have permission to fire?" Tommy - you have permission to fire! I'd be dissappointed if you don't, or at least have a plan to c/r? ;-)
Just seen this post it's a very good one and gives alot of us lower stakes players an insight into thought processes and the plan throughout the hand so thanks. Playing so deep I would call the flop and i would personally see the 5 as a blank and try check raise all in the turn. Like you said if KK is out then so be it. I reckon that player 1 has 44 and player 2 to be very weak like one pair or flush draw.
In Response to Re: NL300 - A Set With Action In Two Spots : Thanks for your reply, i think the bold bit is really important because we bet here with our value range almost always, i still prefer a bigger bet given all the information although i highly value your point you made at the end of your post. It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back? Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy. Posted by WHOAMI196
I went for a bit bigger than half pot (210) but kinda for the same reason but also - what hands do we bet with here - not many
given action we never bet with air, maybe draws at worse -
Comments
Sigh eye eye
Bet just the right amount to make sure if they raise their commited to calling us. Anything £120 upwards probably achieves this, although id prefer 150-200 Too close to the pot we leave too much FE at the current stage but if we bet to small we dont kill their FE if they raise. So if we bet £150-£200ish their re-raise would be £300-£400 min allowing too litttle back to fold anything other than a bluff which i dont think they can have anymore.
false timing tells ftw
I think our range does not differ with regards to sizing, and this is a rare situation to ever have a balnced range, imo all we are doing is giving them a decent price if they have a combo draw (straight + flush etc), and by betting <half pot we are giving the first person />3-1 (good odds for a 25%shot), if the first player just flats then the UTG player can also call getting a great price if he has a 20% shot i.e a flush draw.
I think its a mistake not betting big here.
Am firing halfish pot partly to protect my hand and for value vs a wider range than has been discussed given reads. Board is just to wet to even think of crai incase he takes free card and were just not folding, so it can only be halfpot+ to snap
Without reads and dynamic described I'd be giving it a lot more thought.
But with the intrest on flop (+ lvling war) I would have tried to get it in vs pr + FD etc.
It will be interesting to see what tommy did here, i suspect he checks(planning the old c/r) and player 2 checks back?
Poker clinic post of the month (if not longer) wp tommy.
@ Tommy - to continue the Top Gun analogy there's a bit in it that runs something like "Boss this bogey is all over me! Do I have permission to fire?" Tommy - you have permission to fire! I'd be dissappointed if you don't, or at least have a plan to c/r? ;-)
Playing so deep I would call the flop and i would personally see the 5 as a blank and try check raise all in the turn.
Like you said if KK is out then so be it.
I reckon that player 1 has 44 and player 2 to be very weak like one pair or flush draw.
given action we never bet with air, maybe draws at worse -
so Kx/sets/made straight is all we bet here