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luck

laffnlaffn Member Posts: 17
edited May 2012 in The Poker Clinic
just wondering do the poker EXPERTS  on here ever tell you how much luck (%80) plays in poker
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  • GlenelgGlenelg Member Posts: 6,600
    edited May 2012
    In Response to luck:
    just wondering do the poker EXPERTS  on here ever tell you how much luck (%80) plays in poker
    Posted by laffn
    The more I practice the luckier I seem to get!
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  • KAM99KAM99 Member Posts: 773
    edited May 2012
    Nope the poker experts don't talk about luck to much in the game, but the novices normally talk about it a lot. Poker has an element of luck of course, but if you think its 80% luck then well you playing the game wrong sadly. :(
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  • profman15profman15 Member Posts: 1,808
    edited May 2012

    Mathematically, variance is the name for luck....simple as that really. If any outcome is possible then it will have a probability. You may well expect it so when it doesn't , it is classed as 'unlucky'.
    For instance,  when you a 54%(eg 77 v KQo)  chance/equity of winning a hand then you  count yourself as 'unlucky' to lose.
    However, if you have 89% chance/equity of winning with eg AA v 72o and lose you call it 'terribly unlucky'. However, over a large sample size, say, 100,000, you would expect 55 to win 11,000 times or so.
     So nothing is really unlucky as such. You are just getting the lesser expected result.
    ................................................................
    ..........................or as poker players call it..........................................................

    "A terrible bad beat.....it's not fair!!!!!!!!!"

    It's just statistics and probability and, as an ex maths teacher, i'm very proud it until it happens to me!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

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  • FabraclassFabraclass Member Posts: 117
    edited May 2012
    In Response to luck:
    just wondering do the poker EXPERTS  on here ever tell you how much luck (%80) plays in poker
    Posted by laffn
    Luck is not really a factor in poker in the long term. Luck will even itself out in the very long term, it has too. What I am referring to here is the luck of getting good hands, or winning 50 50 shots etc.

    Better players will get unlucky more often then weaker players as they will be getting their money in as a favourite more often then not However in the very long term their hands will hold up as often as the probability says they will. The luck in poker keeps weaker players playing longer.

    The luck in poker exists in the short term. You can win a massive tournament, worth hundreds of thousands, after only playing a few months. A very weak and wealthy player may want to play you heads up every day for two weeks.You could have been around when internet poker was far easier to beat.

    If you win the massive tournament described above. This might be a good time to retire, or only play micro stakes for the rest of your life. You will extremely likely to be way above your lifetime expected results in tournaments in terms of losses or profits.

    You shouldn't equate short term success or failure in poker with the standard of your play. Luck is likely to be the primary factor.

    If who make a lot of money playing a weak player heads up. Don't let it go to your head, and use the money to try to become a big name for yourself. Look to take on the best players in the game and very likely lose every penny you have.

    Ego can be the root of mush evil. Realism and ego control are crucial in poker.
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