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The Derby

WilhelmWilhelm Member Posts: 1,730
edited June 2012 in Sports & Betting Chat
Can anyone put me off Main Sequence at 10/1?  That price looks huge to me.
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited May 2012
    no wouldnt put you off, backed it when it won its trial race, however I cant see past Bonfire

    Father v
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,555
    edited May 2012

    I like Camelot!

    The likely challenger to me looks like Bonfire!

    Is there a fly in the ointment! Could be ,as there are no certainties in horse racing!

    If I take these factors into consideration, I want to cover all possible avenues , that is going to give me a profit. Doe's not matter if it is big or small, as long as I get enjoyment out of watching the race!

    So here is my plan!

    (1)  Camelot win  £46 @4/6

    (2)  Camelot       £10 reverse forecast!
            Bonfire

    (3)Cavaleiro       £2 e/w @75/1 (Hayley Turner is on a high at the moment)   

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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited May 2012
    Wynne, Wynne , you obviously didnt read my post on the other thread,

    CAMELOT WILL NOT WIN THE DERBY

    if only I knew how to lay bets on Betfair I could make a fortune

    LOL


    or lose one !!!!
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  • ms-treems-tree Member Posts: 889
    edited May 2012
    sorry father i totally disagree with you on this one,

    camelot will win matter of how far.

    only has 8 rivals now as the rest all scared off, bonfire is good horse but doubtful will handle the dip at epsom, as seeing last win looked a very tricky ride to me.
    also at 2yr's  was beat by french fifteen by 2l,  where as camelot beat fench fifteen last time out.

    main sequence i very doubt will win as trainer not known for big race wins anywhere, apart from this horses group 3 win last time out.   does not stand up againts the best of group races that camelot has won.

    o'brien's other runner in race is astrolgy,  won by 11l  but only beat 90 rated horse to win by that distance, so would make him around 113 rated now.  and at 2yr's couldn't win a group 2 or group 3.

    not sure others in race still look up to it either.

    all in all VERY poor derby this year,
    cant see CAMELOT getting beat  so advice s/f  the 2 o'brien horse's  but if can get odds against camelot LUMP ON.

    sorry for long post and gl all having a bet
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  • ms-treems-tree Member Posts: 889
    edited May 2012
    now trading at 4/6

    best advice just watch race or have small bet w/o camelot.
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited May 2012
    Evens idonkcallu !!!!!! , I would offer you 7/4

    it wont win
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,555
    edited May 2012
    Odds at betfair at the moment:

    Back Camelot to win 1.68
    Lay Camelot   to lose 1.69
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  • ms-treems-tree Member Posts: 889
    edited May 2012
    i agree with you idcu, camelot will WIN

    but at 4/7 no point for us small punters even looking at it.


    bonfire no real point in doing e/w  pointless,
    i still think astrology best e/w in race with s/fcast with fav to win.

    reasons for this simple really,  o'briens 2nd string so will be pacemaker,   just look at homecoming queen recently,  also tresure beach in derby last year,  almost won when taking front running role last year beat on line by pois moi.

    still think just watching breif best bet but gl all in having a go this year.
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  • vaigretvaigret Member Posts: 16,380
    edited May 2012
    Im already on bonfire and looking forward to seeing him beat Camelot.

    Also watch out for Mickdaam
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  • BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited June 2012

    not really a betting heat for me i will be watch only.

    in stark contrast to the oaks which is wide open. shirocco star for me in that one  e/w  16/1

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  • FLASHJONNYFLASHJONNY Member Posts: 2,537
    edited June 2012
    me too bell ive backed shirocco star too 14s
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  • ms-treems-tree Member Posts: 889
    edited June 2012
    gl flash and bell in oaks,  very tricky race for punters i think.

    i do not think maybe will stay, but bred too.
    vow looks tricky horse to ride (just like bonfire in derby)
     on the book the fugue has the form but too short at 10/3 in such a trick race,

    i think backing a couple of bigger priced horse E/W might be way to go.
    you both go for shirocco star at 14/1   i think a little underpriced for form shown so far, beaten by a queens 33/1 shot and not really top class at that,  gl but 14/1 to skinny for me.

    again like i said with the derby i might do a couple of o'briens (so called 2nd strings)

    betterbetterbetter 33/1 is intressting, as would be 10/1 if won at chester last time out where jockey kicked for home to early.
     also i will have little e/w on WAS at 50/1,  cost £1,2 million gns as a yearling,  made great debut and i will ignore last run as needs at least this far with better groung (getting today).

    gl all if having a bet.
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  • mickgil75mickgil75 Member Posts: 328
    edited June 2012
                        Camelot to win, main sequence ew
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  • BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited June 2012
    skinny on form shown i agree but most improved performance last time out to date on ground softer than ideal with todays step up in trip sure to suit. also one of only 4 horses in field to my knowledge who have won on ground firmer than good so worth a wee rattle : )   also changed e/w part to win only, living on the edge and all that!!
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  • BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited June 2012
    great shout on was, fancy prices too! shirocco star ran a blinder as hoped, wish id gone e/w now lol!! very impressive after acting up for the 15 mins during parade.
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  • FLASHJONNYFLASHJONNY Member Posts: 2,537
    edited June 2012
    well done ms i had a cracking run for me money tho i was screaming a the tele
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  • FLASHJONNYFLASHJONNY Member Posts: 2,537
    edited June 2012
    im afraid the derby is a watching brief for me
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  • BADBOY985BADBOY985 Member Posts: 1,957
    edited June 2012
    Am on thought worthy e.w at 16/1
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  • wynne1938wynne1938 Member Posts: 20,555
    edited June 2012
    In Response to Re: The Derby:
    gl flash and bell in oaks,  very tricky race for punters i think. i do not think maybe will stay, but bred too. vow looks tricky horse to ride (just like bonfire in derby)  on the book the fugue has the form but too short at 10/3 in such a trick race, i think backing a couple of bigger priced horse E/W might be way to go. you both go for shirocco star at 14/1   i think a little underpriced for form shown so far, beaten by a queens 33/1 shot and not really top class at that,  gl but 14/1 to skinny for me. again like i said with the derby i might do a couple of o'briens (so called 2nd strings) betterbetterbetter 33/1 is intressting, as would be 10/1 if won at chester last time out where jockey kicked for home to early.  also i will have little e/w on WAS at 50/1,  cost £1,2 million gns as a yearling,  made great debut and i will ignore last run as needs at least this far with better groung (getting today). gl all if having a bet.
    Posted by ms-tree
    Nice post! Pity I just read it!
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  • BELL_POKERBELL_POKER Member Posts: 1,295
    edited June 2012
    if i was to have a flutter then probs at the prices and getting 14's on a buick/gosden fancy then thought worthy for me also he looked beaten against noble mission last time but fought hard to win but improvement ovbviously needed
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