Satelite dillemma

MP33

Normally i,d shove but the opponent has been playing very tight and i,ve put him on aces, kings  or an under pair  which means i,m flippin - and with ppl to act after
As i,m already in 3rd with 21 remaining and 11 seats into the 2k Bounty Hunter is this to tight ?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Bear_Proof	Small blind		400.00	400.00	3985.00
lala67	Big blind		800.00	1200.00	6375.00
	Your hole cards	A K
xxxx	Raise		1600.00	2800.00	5970.00
Taximan1	Fold
MP33	Fold
skippy1968	Fold
Bear_Proof	Fold
lala67	Fold
xxxx	Muck
xxxx	Win		2000.00		7970.00
xxxx	Return		800.00	0.00	8770.00

grantorino

More info needed

MP33

In Response to Re: Satelite dillemma:

More info needed
Posted by grantorino

Had to go back and find the hand.

I,m basically thinking -"do i need to even need to play another hand?"

EDIT - In the same game i,m now 11th out of 12 (with no overlay for 12th)  and the opponent has been going all in quite a lot so i,m sure i,m ahead but do i let the blinds go through me (they are also about to go up) and hope lala (who was on 4k ) or one of the players on the other table goes out?

The main reason i call is that there are no real short stacks on the other table and they are all letting the time bar go down (probably watching our table) , but is this the right move long term. In this case it was as the game lasted another orbit so i had to post the blinds again at 2k -4k

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
Taximan1	Small blind		1500.00	1500.00	7670.00
MP33	Big blind		3000.00	4500.00	2585.00
	Your hole cards	K A
kennybad	Fold
hfdbull29	Fold
lala67	Fold
xxxx	All-in		14037.50	18537.50	0.00
Taximan1	Fold
MP33	All-in		2585.00	21122.50	0.00
xxxx	Unmatched bet		8452.50	12670.00	8452.50
MP33	Show	K A
xxxxx	Show	A 2
Flop
		6 8 2
Turn
		K
River
		9
MP33	Win	Pair of Kings	12670.00		12670.00

BorinLoner

In the first hand we really need to know your stack size. If you're really comfortably stacked then it's fine to fold but most of the time I'd say you need to shove because at 21 remaining and only 11 seats there's still quite a long way to go. Of course if you've got 30BB or more, then it's a different story.

The second hand is pretty tough. I think I fold and see if lala can survive the next orbit. I don't think you should have really let yourself get as low as 2BB but sometimes that can't be helped if we're on the bubble and people keep acting in front of us. As long as someone else is under more threat, it's always going to be best to not call off your stack. It's a tough one, though, when you're this super-short. It comes down to whether you're more likely to get the seat if you call than if you fold. Three points on that:

A) 50/50 that lala busts when they eventually get it all-in.
Likely that our AK is ahead but could be between 70/30, 60/40 or even 45/55. Can't rule out that we're 30/70 or 10/90 (or worse) agaisnt AA or KK.
C) We can't guarantee that, if we get the double-up, we will definitely get the seat.

Considering those, I fold... and hope.

MP33

In Response to Re: Satelite dillemma:

In the first hand we really need to know your stack size. If you're really comfortably stacked then it's fine to fold but most of the time I'd say you need to shove because at 21 remaining and only 11 seats there's still quite a long way to go. Of course if you've got 30BB or more, then it's a different story. The second hand is pretty tough. I think I fold and see if lala can survive the next orbit. I don't think you should have really let yourself get as low as 2BB but sometimes that can't be helped if we're on the bubble and people keep acting in front of us. As long as someone else is under more threat, it's always going to be best to not call off your stack. It's a tough one, though, when you're this super-short. It comes down to whether you're more likely to get the seat if you call than if you fold. Three points on that: A) 50/50 that lala busts when they eventually get it all-in. Likely that our AK is ahead but could be between 70/30, 60/40 or even 45/55. Can't rule out that we're 30/70 or 10/90 (or worse) agaisnt AA or KK. C) We can't guarantee that, if we get the double-up, we will definitely get the seat. Considering those, I fold... and hope.
Posted by BorinLoner

Good point - Didn,t notice that. I was comfortarbly chipped up and lying in 3rd, hence my thinking was that i could get through w/o playing another hand . As it turned out i was wrong

It worked out ok in the end and i went on to make the FT of the 2K BH, but there was 1 hand from this final table which i,m still thinking about now (whether i made the right move or not ) I,ll find and post it up on this thread

Thx for comments

MP33

In Response to Re: Satelite dillemma:

1 raise n u fold ak u waaaaaaaaaaaat its all in all day long he colud have a q  a j middle pair y only aces lol 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

 I thought about middle pair and then thought - Do i really want to be flippin? at this point of a satelite where i could get through w/o playing another hand or at least until i was desperate

MP33

In Response to Re: Satelite dillemma:

In Response to Re: Satelite dillemma : Good point - Didn,t notice that. I was comfortarbly chipped up and lying in 3rd, hence my thinking was that i could get through w/o playing another hand . As it turned out i was wrong It worked out ok in the end and i went on to make the FT of the 2K BH, but there was 1 hand from this final table which i,m still thinking about now (whether i made the right move or not ) I,ll find and post it up on this thread Thx for comments
Posted by MP33

This was the only player i didn,t have a read on. He also had a head prize of £25 and the step ups in money were something like £79 for 6th - £92 for 5th - approx £110 for 4th - £138 for 3rd - £205 for 2nd and £357 for 1st.( It was pretty close with stacks - Alibut was chip leader)

I ended up finishing 5th and now think i regret not calling as i could have had a big chip lead. If i,d know i wasn,t up against an overpair i,d definately have called, but like i said - i just didn,t have a read on this guy.

If your reading this betkman i,d love to know what u had   

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
AliButt	Small blind		3000.00	3000.00	102965.43
betkman	Big blind		6000.00	9000.00	67883.04
	Your hole cards	6 6
j3ono	Fold
lala67	Fold
MP33	Raise		14000.00	23000.00	77766.72
chris85	Fold
AliButt	Fold
betkman	All-in		67883.04	90883.04	0.00
MP33	Fold
betkman	Muck
betkman	Win		31000.00		31000.00
betkman	Return		59883.04	0.00	90883.04

percival09

just min raise - saves 2K

BorinLoner

I think it's a shove or a fold. I really don't like raise/folding out of your stack, even a min-raise. You only have 15BB and you can't afford to fritter away 2BB.

I think it's a shove. I think anything else would be a mistake when you're this short.