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HU Hyper - Shoving too wide?
Lambert180
Member Posts: 12,197
I know this player is good and is well aware of correct shoving/calling ranges.
Is this shove fine?
Is this shove fine?
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lambert180 | Small blind | 20.00 | 20.00 | 620.00 | |
| XXX | Big blind | 40.00 | 60.00 | 320.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Lambert180 | All-in | 620.00 | 680.00 | 0.00 | |
| XXX | All-in | 320.00 | 1000.00 | 0.00 | |
| Lambert180 | Unmatched bet | 280.00 | 720.00 | 280.00 | |
| Lambert180 | Show |
| |||
| XXX | Show |
| |||
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| River | |||||
| |||||
| XXX | Win | Pair of Kings | 720.00 | 720.00 | |
Comments
EDIT: just did the maths on it. Versus any random hand you will be about 45%, and so think maybe slightly better hand, but guess its close for your question on if he folds or calls, and thats hard to add a percentage to how light he calls.
I still think I have some FE here though and am more than likely gonna be 40% if he calls anyway.
He has 8BB and at these blinds levels, I'd say the risk/reward is pretty decent.
I think it's probably +EV but it's a close one and maybe an unnecessary spot if I wanna lower the variance.
HU turbo's are so high variance that it's incredibly difficult to beat the rake long-term. You need to have a really big edge on your opponents.
If you want to play skilful HU poker, then you've got to start deeper than 25BB. This is all going to be about pure aggression in position and getting your calling ranges right. Getting it in here, as long as he folds anything less than a strong queen, is going to be a +ev play in the long-term. You're too shallow to fold or call, in my opinion.
If you give him a double-up, at least you've still got 7BB back. That's the advantage that your edge has given you. Basically you've earned yourself this shot at him.
Obviously them percentages are pure guesswork thrown out there, but the general principal is there.
I think 5% ROI at hypers is VERY acheivable, but I wouldn't fancy trying to keep up 15% ROI at turbos.
I guess it is.
My problem with these is simply that you're so short that your edge is always going to be small and you'll never play a river, hardly play a turn and only play the flop in the first two or three levels. That means your edge against even a bad but aggro player is going to be virtually nil and variance will be king.
If you think you're a good player, then I don't see the value in playing these. If you're not getting enough action in a regular HU game, then open another table. The point in saying "play a different game" is that I think there's much greater profitability in playing deeper for those players that have a decent amount of ability.
On the subject of profitability, you should have a peek at some of the most profitable players on SS and you'll see there's a fair few Hyper players in there.
I had one guy the other night I had about a 600 v 400 lead, and shoved into him and he said he folded AQ cos he thought I had a PP and didn't wanna flip. Obviously you dunno if you can believe everything people say at the table but if that's true, it's pretty awful.
The biggest reason to shove here is that you should expect your opponent to do the same on his button. At some stage one of you will pick up a hand to call with and then variance will decide who wins. The advantage you have now is that you have 7BB more back if you lose. That's the advantage you can't afford to give up by folding in this spot.
I think shove by the way.
BorinLoner (480) on the button raises to 80.
Lambert180 (460) in the BB.... What are you going to do?
Are you going to call, to play a pot of 160 out of position with a stack of 420? If you 3-bet, you can't fold to a shove and I can't simply call any reasonable 3-bet.
I think you can only see a flop with these blind levels against really bad players: Players who limp the button or call a raise OOP. I'm sure there are alot of bad players at this level and you probably can make a little bit of money. I just don't think that a) playing these is going to improve your game or b) you'll make as much money playing these as you would playing a deeper structure. I don't know how many fish there are at this level, although I assume it's quite a high number, lol. I just don't want to rely on finding really bad players to make money. I want to be able to make money out of the regular bad players too.
JJ was telling me about them 6max Hypers, never give them a go before.
Well the more you play, the more accurate it'll be and obviously over time your skill level in comparison to the player pool will probably change anyway, whether it be for the better or the worse.
But I'd imagine if you're a winner over 1000+ games, it's likely to not be just positive variance. Obviously you need to assess yourself, if you win 10 games out of 10 in one session but that's because you shoved 72 into AA and won, obviously you know that aint gonna last, but you can see if you're capable of completely outplaying your opponents.
Also 1000 games aint that much with how fast they are, I'm playing at least 1000 this month for the challenge with Doh but I think I could easy play 2000-3000 per month.