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HORSES TO FOLLOW- TIPS PLOTS, ETC
vaigret
Member Posts: 16,380
Hi all
andybuck makes a good point in another thread so I am trying to help by putting this thread up to try and get good info on horses to follow.
Wynne and other people post their bets and long may it continue, you might say why is he backing that and look and get info which makes you think I'll back that . Alternatively you might think DOHHHH is such a good tipster you want to follow him blindly.
As you know I dont often put my bets up , mainly because I have this silly notion that if I post it, it wont win.
However I would like to think there is just ONE thread where you can put your views on a race which might produce a winner or expound on why you are betting on it.
For Example andybuck said he would follow Ahern after it got left in stalls today. That is good info as people can look at race and decide for themselves. He gave reasoning not just naming a horse. I went big on Ahern today because I saw it absolutely smash a field of four winners in its first race. Ok it didnt come off but unfortunately horses are not machines. However I will back it next time as andybuck is right, it is a sure fire winner waiting to happen. After getting left the jockey didnt give it a hard race and it still finished well.
The other occurence today that I wished someone had posted was why they picked Princess Highway. As I said in another thread it was the value bet of the whole meeting so far. a 17-2 winner when on all known form it should have been 6-4. I missed it because I bet with my heart on that race and so didnt read what was patently obvious. A post on here would have alerted me to my mistake.
So what I am asking is that if you have good info or a line of form you are taking with a horse post it on here with your reasoning and hopefully people can look and take their chance. ms-tree has certainly done this and is a great help. This is definely better than I am backing XYZ in 3.00 with £wyz although as I said I am not advocating that people who do this should stop.
Lets give it a go shall we in the hope we can beat those bookie fellows.
Father V
andybuck makes a good point in another thread so I am trying to help by putting this thread up to try and get good info on horses to follow.
Wynne and other people post their bets and long may it continue, you might say why is he backing that and look and get info which makes you think I'll back that . Alternatively you might think DOHHHH is such a good tipster you want to follow him blindly.
As you know I dont often put my bets up , mainly because I have this silly notion that if I post it, it wont win.
However I would like to think there is just ONE thread where you can put your views on a race which might produce a winner or expound on why you are betting on it.
For Example andybuck said he would follow Ahern after it got left in stalls today. That is good info as people can look at race and decide for themselves. He gave reasoning not just naming a horse. I went big on Ahern today because I saw it absolutely smash a field of four winners in its first race. Ok it didnt come off but unfortunately horses are not machines. However I will back it next time as andybuck is right, it is a sure fire winner waiting to happen. After getting left the jockey didnt give it a hard race and it still finished well.
The other occurence today that I wished someone had posted was why they picked Princess Highway. As I said in another thread it was the value bet of the whole meeting so far. a 17-2 winner when on all known form it should have been 6-4. I missed it because I bet with my heart on that race and so didnt read what was patently obvious. A post on here would have alerted me to my mistake.
So what I am asking is that if you have good info or a line of form you are taking with a horse post it on here with your reasoning and hopefully people can look and take their chance. ms-tree has certainly done this and is a great help. This is definely better than I am backing XYZ in 3.00 with £wyz although as I said I am not advocating that people who do this should stop.
Lets give it a go shall we in the hope we can beat those bookie fellows.
Father V
Comments
watch out for Field of Dream next time another who lost acres of ground and had to switch and still finished fourth at royal Ascot.
Now another although I cant promise it will win but it is value in 4.25 Ascot on friday. Firstly I looked at Mijhaar 4-1 as it finished just behind Prince of Johanne , winner of hunt cup on Wednesday. however that was over a mile and this is over 1m 2f. Then I looked at Gatewood 10-3 who won at Epsom last time over 1m 2f. But my eyes then fell on OTTOMAN EMPIRE a neck behind Gatewood at Epsom giving 9lbs. Tomorrow he is only giving Gatewood 4lbs for a neck, however he got the run of the race and Gatewood had trouble in running. However Ottoman Empire is 14-1 a huge price if you fancy Gatewood. By the way Lincensed to Till beaten in that race and came out next time and won so the race has good form.
Have to worry about Hyper, Dandadana and Quaraaba and I would'nt put you off them but its Gatewood and Ottoman Empire for me.
Hope those titbits have helped.
Father V
10 of the last 12 winners have not raced more than twice that season
10 of the last 12 winners were 4yos
First time out at York he ran over 1mile and on good ground, both today's trip and ground will be more in his favour. The winner (Fury) has since ran well in a group 3 race and the 2nd (Prince of Joanne) won the Hunt Cup, Navajo Chief that finished 5th has also won a handicap. I've waited all week to back this horse, and got on last night at 9/2. Good luck with everyone's selections today.
Note: Qaraaba may just run a nice race at EW odds he will love the ground and trip, he's basically a decent handicapper running in a listed race, but he will get the strong pace he needs and might just run into a place at 8/1
Overturn is by far the class horse in the race rated 112 where as the selection is rated 82, However its guaranteed to stay the 2miles 5 furlongs as its won over 3 miles over NH fences. It won last time out at York and because its a conditions race doesn't have to carry the extra 10lb for winning the race, if the ground is soft I think it could run a massive race as it will stay all day. At 25/1 its a decent bet to small stakes.
andybuck , I am slightly worried re Calico Cat as last race was 1m 6f on good to firm , does it like softer ? Gulf O Naples certainly wouldnt have liked the ground that day either. For myself I cant see past Red Cadeaux 2nd to st nicholas Abbey last time but again I'll have to look tomorrow re form on softer. agree with you on price though 33-1 to 13/2 is a big difference.
Ilike ANOTOLIAN in 5.00 and hoping Goldolphin might hit a run soon. Lots of horses in this race met behind High Jinx, and him and my selection pulled a few lengths clear.
As to others , the BOSUN BREESE form has been franked by a number of horses and he runs again in 1.55 Ayr tomoz. 9-2 not tremendous but still could be good.
Father V
The idea is to give 4 horses on the top racing days which I think have a chance.
Four Candles iiii is my highest rated horse down to i for my least fancied.
So here goes for today
iiii -ANATOLIAN 5.00 Ascot - second to High Jinx last time 5 lenghths ahead of a lot of horses in this race. Wont mind the ground and trading sround 9-1.
Backed in but didnt run very well as if he was good enough he could have done a Camborn who won from last to first. Cambourn looks more like the horse to follow although Anatolian might be better on str8 course. also M Al Zarooni not firing as he should.
iii -BACCARAT 2.55 Ayr - won impressively last time out and shouldnt mind the ground. Could look very good thing if winning this race.
Backed from 3-1 to 13/8, never looked happy on course or ground , very disappointing. Best watched from now on.
ii - BOSUN BREESE -1.55 Ayr - on a roll and has beaten a number of horses who have won since including Rasaman the other day. Form of its wins working out well and still think its on the upgrade. currently 9-2
Won at 11-2 hard held , still improving
i -RED CADEAUX -3.05 Ascot- as this is such a high quality race it leads me to make this my one candle tip although this horse has run in all the high class races around the world and performed very well. Ground should favour him more than some of others and ran very well to finish second to St nicholas Abbey on fast ground, easy course over this trip. I think this harder course and ground give him a major chance. 9-1
Good run in 3rd and wouldnt have won even though he got tapped for toe as Sea Moon and others made their move off the bend. Dunaden confirmed Melbourne Cup form so ground not as bad as I hoped. Back up a bit in trip , perhaps at Newmarket July meeing I will be having another go.
Father V
Remember 4 candles is my highest rating.
iiii OUR JONATHAN - 2.15 Newcastle -5/2 -ok not much of a price this one but last time out met all trouble in running at Salisbury. This is a top class horse and if it gets any run at all it will win. Also if it does get on LIBRANNO 3.35 Newmarket as it beat Our Jonathan last time out and won this race last year. well Libranno franked the form the only trouble is Our Jonathon flopped out of stalls and then eased when chance gone.
iii - TIPPING OVER -2.30 Newmarket - 9/2 Last time out beat Ask Dad who won this week and more to come from this horse. Not as good as I thought and Hannon knew City Image better then his Ask Dad.
ii - MASS RALLY -2.45 Newcastle - 8-1 . Last time out didnt get best of runs behind Rasaman , however Rasaman didnt either. However as I did Rasaman I followed another horse which finished close up in this race and it won during week quite easily. I think the form is good and this horse is used to carrying big weights.
Never wanted to win this race, jockey put him behind a wall of horses from the off then gave it a very easy race. Still finished fifth
i - PALAZZO BIANCO -3.20 Newcastle -15-2. Ok this is the Plate and you must give Ile De Re (Don McCain), Chester Cup winner a great chance as he knows how to get one ready for this race and horse will like ground. He beat Gulf of Naples who ran a good race in Ascot Gold Cup and although he is tough I cant see him reversing form after such a hard race. This is 3f shorter than Chester and I fancy my selection. The reason he is only my one candle rating is the other two horses i have talked about. However last time out he got bashed twice in a 2m Haydock race and had to get himself together and still finished strongly in 3rd. I fancy he is a bit better class than Ile De Re so I will go with him. Didnt have stamina to get 2m in this ground, I still fancy he will pop up in a long distance handicap on better ground. At least I had a saver on Ile de Re
Good luck all
Father V
Father V
gl all if having a bet this week.
undaunted I will give another horse to follow.
Greek War -won easily at Newmarket Friday night in handicap debut. He will get a stiff rise but still in front of handicapper.
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