Tough MTT river spot caught on video. Fold, call or shove?

GaryQQQ

There are 15 left, 10 to be paid in this £3.30 Bounty Hunter. The villain is fairly new to table, I have no reads on him and I assume he has none on me. Neither of us has been out of line since he arrived.

What's your play guys?

Watch the hand here;

http://youtu.be/eHDvTfrbTmM

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
LimpShove	Small blind		150.00	150.00	12410.00
Tom327	Big blind		300.00	450.00	19947.99
	Your hole cards	A K
fuzzy29	Call		300.00	750.00	10380.00
lizardman6	Fold
bigclem1	Fold
GaryQQQ	Raise		725.00	1475.00	14222.50
LimpShove	Call		575.00	2050.00	11835.00
Tom327	Call		425.00	2475.00	19522.99
fuzzy29	Call		425.00	2900.00	9955.00
Flop
		6 3 K
LimpShove	Check
Tom327	Check
fuzzy29	Check
GaryQQQ	Bet		1895.00	4795.00	12327.50
LimpShove	Fold
Tom327	Call		1895.00	6690.00	17627.99
fuzzy29	Fold
Turn
		8
Tom327	Check
GaryQQQ	Bet		3595.00	10285.00	8732.50
Tom327	Call		3595.00	13880.00	14032.99
River
		10
Tom327	Bet		3000.00	16880.00	11032.99
GaryQQQ

DOHHHHHHH

Video clinic hands :D:D cool!

It's a snap call isn't it? When I saw the thread and the way the action went, I was expecting him to jam the river, which would just be horrible for us.

We're getting great odds.

I would raise more pre too, 2.5x is fine normally but with the limper and the stacks being deep we can make it bigger and still get action.

So yeh not loving it, but I call. 

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: Tough MTT river spot caught on video. Fold, call or shove?:

Video clinic hands :D:D cool! Posted by DOHHHHHHH

Video replay /> text hand history, you can look for timing tells. The villains holecards do get shown, I'll post the unedited version tomorrow (Monday).

KAM99

Booo only 480p, but cheer for video clinic. hehe

Clearly have to call based on the price he has given you, but not loving having to. There is only two possible reasons he puts out a bet that thin. Either he has a hand like KJ-KQ and is hoping to block a shove, or he has K10 or the flush. Can't see him having a set way played, so for me its one or the other, and I'd have to think K10 seems most likely. But fingers crossed for KQ

AMYBR

Like bet size pre.  Can make it bigger if we like given depth, but still like bet size as played

Prob lead flop bit smaller. 

I probably check back turn for some pot control, believing only getting two steets of value more often than not.

Calling river bet when checking turn back, but leading if checked to

GaryQQQ

I made a crying call. His bet looked very much like a value bet, however due to the sizing I only needed to be good 1 time in 6 for a call to be profitable so I had to go for it.

Here is the unedited version of the hand with the villains hole cards;

http://youtu.be/iHBKmVLaU0Q

So to my surprise my hand was good (and I wished I'd shoved). His mistake was betting only 3K on the river; if he'd shoved he might have got a fold. As played he's not beating anything that calls and he's wasting 3000 chips, you may have noticed from the first video clip I'd already decided to check back the river if checked to.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
LimpShove	Small blind		150.00	150.00	12410.00
Tom327	Big blind		300.00	450.00	19947.99
	Your hole cards	A K
fuzzy29	Call		300.00	750.00	10380.00
lizardman6	Fold
bigclem1	Fold
GaryQQQ	Raise		725.00	1475.00	14222.50
LimpShove	Call		575.00	2050.00	11835.00
Tom327	Call		425.00	2475.00	19522.99
fuzzy29	Call		425.00	2900.00	9955.00
Flop
		6 3 K
LimpShove	Check
Tom327	Check
fuzzy29	Check
GaryQQQ	Bet		1895.00	4795.00	12327.50
LimpShove	Fold
Tom327	Call		1895.00	6690.00	17627.99
fuzzy29	Fold
Turn
		8
Tom327	Check
GaryQQQ	Bet		3595.00	10285.00	8732.50
Tom327	Call		3595.00	13880.00	14032.99
River
		10
Tom327	Bet		3000.00	16880.00	11032.99
GaryQQQ	Call		3000.00	19880.00	5732.50
Tom327	Show	K 7
GaryQQQ	Show	A K
GaryQQQ	Win	Pair of Kings	19880.00		25612.50

KAM99

Ok, so it was A out of choice A or B, and I just gave him to much credit for hand choosing.

Shame really, as see one hand from him and you shove the river. To be honest rereading first post I might have shoved anyway, as if he really was strong I'd have expected a shove or C/R maybe rather than C/C two streets and donk lead weak. Sure sometimes thats the way to get a shove by a weak lead, but dunno.

As said before only couple of things his bet could mean. Weak and blocking, or strong and hyper thin value bet. And in a BH I'd half expect a shove at a £3.30 buyin level if he was strong hoping to take your bounty as well. And as only real hands we can ever credit as strong there are K10 or backdoor flush think might have been tempted to shove thinking it over again.

Also, hope assume y ou wouldn't have checked this back to him on river? Be losing value most times in this spot if you did, as like said not much I could see him having other than an under pair or a king, as set is highly unlikely given his line, and really blinds to high to be set farming anyway if he knows anything. Though clearly not so much given his call with K7.

GaryQQQ

BTW, one well known forum member sent me his analysis by PM, and it was absolutely spot on, a great hand reading job. 

Summarising his PM it said 'he is weak, this is his range.........., therefore I shove'.

Because he sent it to me by PM I assume he wants to remain anonymous. However if he reads this and chooses to identify himself here I will verify it.