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To fire the 3rd barrel or not?
liamboi11
Member Posts: 2,141
awrite guys this hand was in the rebuy open last nite down to last 100 or so and fell after this hand my head went down.
my opponent was being very laggy since he got moved to our table and feel it was really only us opening pots rest of table was just limp calling.
but my opponent was constantly raising on the button vs my bb and have not 3bet him until this point.
question is should i fire the 3rd barrel ? and also feel free to criticise my play because looking over the hand this morning IMO I played it awful lol
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GEMINI7750 | Small blind | 150.00 | 150.00 | 17052.49 | |
| liamboi11 | Big blind | 300.00 | 450.00 | 19757.50 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| Philroy | Fold | ||||
| macapaca | Fold | ||||
| D60LPS | Fold | ||||
| chrisdboy | Raise | 900.00 | 1350.00 | 17083.00 | |
| GEMINI7750 | Fold | ||||
| liamboi11 | Raise | 1900.00 | 3250.00 | 17857.50 | |
| chrisdboy | Call | 1300.00 | 4550.00 | 15783.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| liamboi11 | Bet | 2400.00 | 6950.00 | 15457.50 | |
| chrisdboy | Call | 2400.00 | 9350.00 | 13383.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| liamboi11 | Bet | 4500.00 | 13850.00 | 10957.50 | |
| chrisdboy | Call | 4500.00 | 18350.00 | 8883.00 | |
| River | |||||
| ????????? | ||||
Comments
1) Which hands am I representing by betting?
2) Considering the stack-to-pot ratio, can I make my opponent fold?
3) Which hands do I force to fold by betting?
1) By continuing your betting here across all three streets, you're only really representing an overpair or a big Jack. The only alternative is that you are representing a set but this is very difficult to make someone believe as it's a very narrow range. On this board; all the flush draws have missed, it's unrealistic that you would raise out of the blinds with 45 and none of the two-pair hands make sense for the same reason. So most of the hands you're representing are one-pair hands. This makes it pretty easy for our opponent to know if they're ahead and makes dry boards like this really difficult to bluff at.
2) Since our opponent has only 8900 back and the pot is 18350, it's going to be very difficult for him to fold any made hand. If you set him in, he's going to be offered better than 3/1 on his money, meaning that you only have to be bluffing 1/4 times for this to be the right call for him.
3) Once he gets to this point, having called on the flop and turn, he's going to find it very difficult to fold a made hand given those odds. If he has a Jack or an underpair to the Jack he's unlikely to get this far and then give up. On the other hand if he has some sort of draw that's missed you don't need to bet as your Ace-high can beat all of those hands. He won't call you with a hand that you beat but will call you with a hand that beats you. So betting doesn't fold out any of the hands we'd want it to.
In the hand as played, there's no reason to bet on the river. You've just got to check and hope he has a missed draw.
As it happens, I only like your 3-bet out of the blinds if you have specific reason to think that your opponent will fold frequently. After your flop c-bet - which I like in light of the pre-flop action - you almost have to give up on the turn. If your opponent is the type that can float a c-bet on the flop then you shouldn't have been 3-betting pre-flop and if he's not the type to float the flop then he almost certainly has a hand. The only hands we are hoping to fold out by betting the turn are flush draws... and since we have the Ace of hearts and considering the pre-flop action, that range is going to be greatly narrowed. If he has a flush draw you'd expect him to raise the flop anyway.
So generally speaking I don't like 3-betting this hand pre-flop with these stacks. You can peel a flop off if you like or just fold, but if you 3-bet you need to be able to take it down pre-flop alot of the time and you need to understand what your opponents reaction to a c-bet on the flop will be. (If they call the c-bet they must have a hand and can never be floating)
To be honest, after you make the pre-flop 3-bet, triple barrelling is not really an option. Just look at the size of the pot after he calls your flop c-bet: It's about 3/4 the size of his stack. Any bet you make on the turn is going to commit him...
Why wouldn't he do this with a set, by the way?
It's because of this that I actually think that it's more likely that your opponent has a set as he's letting you value-town yourself by continuing betting. He's never folding if the heart comes, so he doesn't need to protect against it. Your line is rarely going to be a flush-draw anyway, so raising is likely to only force you to fold out most of your hands. (Assuming he's a clever player which, by reputation, I believe he is) I'm not saying I think that's what he has, just that this line makes me more fearful of one, not less.
By the way, the flop might seem wet but it's not, considering the pre-flop action. Neither of you should ever have the straight draw so that just leaves the flush draw. With only one high-card (ony a Jack at that) there's not much for a big hand to be afraid of...