Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?

dub1

First off, effecive stacks are 250bb so all deep stack adjustments have to be taken into consideration.

I have played 1000s of hands vs villain, he is a desent reg who is capable of 3betting light, ect.

In this hand villain pot 3bets which is not his standard, I'd consider a 3bet to £7 - £8 to be the norm and as we are 250bb deep this insta sets off the alarm bells that villain has a strong range, his range at this point is QQ+, AK.

Obviously as I have AA I want to get as much money in pre-flop so I 4bet to £28, my standard 4bet would be to £11.50 but being as villain has 3bet so big I made my 4bet bigger.

Villain only flat calls so I put villains range now on QQ or AK. I'm just not sure if villain would not be willing to get KK all-in pre being 250bb deep, This is the problem and the reason this hand has bugged me and I would like to here peoples thoughts on it?   

Based on the asumption that I would and many other villains would be stacking off pre with KK, I'm putting villain on QQ, AK.

Based on this information, whats the best line?

Also after running ev cals on the hand the way it was played, If villain does flat KK pre then the river is a clear call, if villain doesn't then its a clear fold.

The confusing part of the hand for me is the villains donk bet of £35 into £98.50 on the river. I'm not sure if the villain is a deep enough thinking player to realise that if he holds KhKx then I can never have a flush in this situation, and being as I dont have Ah then the villain can have AhKh, the way I see it, I think that the £35 donk bet on the river is purely for value. I think that the villain

1) expects me to check back this river

2) not call a large bet.

If I could replay this hand I'm not sure if cbetting the flop would of been a better option, only AK that is not AhKh folds.

Then If villain calls I'm totally lost on the turn, does he have AhKh, KK or QQ.

Ev cals 

On the flop, 

If villain does flat KK then I have 76% equity

If villain doesn't flat KK then I have 69% equity. (I guess I'm answering my own question here)

So the flop should of been a clear cbet.

On the turn

If villain does flat KK then I have 67% equity

If villain doesn't flat KK then I have 23% equity.

This decision Is alot closer,

1) I'm not sure if villain would reraise a cbet on the flop with QQ, If I was to guess I'd say he would flat call.

2) I'm not sure if villain wouldn't fold KK here putting me on AA or QQ so with that said does cbetting the turn accomplish anything other that folding out villains AhKh?

Anyway I'm not really sure where I'm going with all this, If anyone has any Input then I'd like to here you thoughts.

  

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance-Small blind £0.25£0.25£68.12VillainBig blind £0.50£0.75£151.27-Big blind £0.50£1.25£124.50 Your hole cardsAA   -Check    -Fold    -Fold    dub1Raise £2.00£3.25£121.50-Call £1.75£5.00£66.37Villain Raise £10.00£15.00£141.27-Fold    dub1Raise £26.00£41.00£95.50-Fold    Villain Call £17.50£58.50£123.77Flop  Q35   Villain Check    dub1Check    Turn  3   Villain Check    dub1Bet £20.00£78.50£75.50Villain Call £20.00£98.50£103.77River  6   Villain Bet £35.00£133.50£68.77dub1Fold    Villain Muck    Villain Win £96.70 £165.47Villain Return £35.00£1.80£200.47

bolly580

KIN MON!

pr1nnyraid

I don't know if you've given them a wide enough range here, regardless of whether they are a capable reg or not, the large 3bet doesnt instantly mean QQ+ / AK. Also you always have to attribute a small portion of villains range to lighter holdings.

You have taken a very standard line in a 4bet pot, your thought process in this spot is fairly transparent. 4bet pre then checking back a flop is almost always signifying showdown value. eg you never have AK or any light 4bet holdings here.

So now your villain will probably narrow your range to 10 10+ if he hadnt already done this pre flop.

I think you are correct his river lead is for value, looks like he doesn't want it to go c/c, also he might be trying to induce. He could also be bet folding a flush.

It's a respectable fold imo. i just find it odd that you are 4betting then shutting down. If you are only looking for 1 street of value then maybe you could c back turn as well, then call off on riv or make value bet if checked to.

LOL_RAISE

nh

dub1

In Response to Re: Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?:

I don't know if you've given them a wide enough range here, regardless of whether they are a capable reg or not, the large 3bet doesnt instantly mean QQ+ / AK. Also you always have to attribute a small portion of villains range to lighter holdings. You have taken a very standard line in a 4bet pot, your thought process in this spot is fairly transparent. 4bet pre then checking back a flop is almost always signifying showdown value. eg you never have AK or any light 4bet holdings here. So now your villain will probably narrow your range to 10 10+ if he hadnt already done this pre flop. I think you are correct his river lead is for value, looks like he doesn't want it to go c/c, also he might be trying to induce. He could also be bet folding a flush. It's a respectable fold imo. i just find it odd that you are 4betting then shutting down. If you are only looking for 1 street of value then maybe you could c back turn as well, then call off on riv or make value bet if checked to.
Posted by pr1nnyraid

Even if Villain had 3bet 1010, JJ, AQs or any lighter pre, I think he folds all these to my 4bet, surely with my 4bet to £28 he must think I'm committed and stacking off. So when he calls I narrow his range to QQ or AK and I'd expect KK to 5Bet jam.

dub1

In Response to Re: Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?:

i dont understand why u are not betting the flop here 
Posted by IDONKCALLU

My thought process during this hand was that :-

Villain folds 1010, JJ, AQs or any light 3bet pre being as I've 4bet to £28 which commits me to stacking off.

I'd expect villain to 5bet jam KK so with a range of QQ, AK, cbetting only get value from AhKh, value cuts vs QQ and folds out any AK thats not AhKh, so I opt to check.

When villain checks the turn If he did have Qs full I'm not sure he would check raise as he's most likely putting me on JJ or AK as I didn't cbet the flop and AhKh would also check/call here.

When villain donks 1/3 pot on the river I think he's tring to get value from what in his eyes is most likey JJ, and would expect me to give up on any bluff on the river which to me futher confirmed that he had QQ or AhKh. Hence my fold.  

dub1

In Response to Re: Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?:

nh
Posted by LOL_RAISE

Does this imply you agree with my thought process and would of played it the same?

KKrippler

Your a tight abc reg 

Villain might think getting KK in vs tight regs 250 bbs deep might not be good.

IMO he can def call your 4 bet with KK.

LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?:

In Response to Re: Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here? : Does this imply you agree with my thought process and would of played it the same?
Posted by dub1

didnt read alot of it as it was a big wall of text but basically he should be super strong to put 56bbs in preflop with 200bb behind.
on flop i think checking is fine or you can bet like £15 try to look weak and let him do something stupid. doesnt make much sense for villain to have KK here because he is turning his hand into a bluff (although your hand can look alot like aq here)

reminds me of a hand i played a few months ago and they had qq that time so maybe im biased!

beaneh

Pretty sure the river fold is awful

sikas

In Response to Re: Can't think of a title as its 3.55am but any input would be cool! What do we put villain on here?:

Pretty sure the river fold is awful
Posted by beaneh

have to agree with beanbag

TPTP123

I think putting villain on a specific range of QQ+,AK is dangerous.  He could profitably call a 4bet OOP precisely because he can be 100% sure of getting his implied odds knowing that your committed and ready to stack off as you say (ironically with villain knowing you'll stack off with the exact range of QQ+,AK-the range you think he holds).

You have blockers to AK, giving him AK 50% of time (8 combos instead of 16). And Aces 2/6.

If you crunch the numbers your laying... his getting 1) immediate odds of 2.34:1 { his range only needs >29% equity to call } 2) implied odds of 7.8:1 {so he could profitably flat with 22 as he only needs 11% equity}.

Lastly if he is as solid as you say, then yeah he could be 3betting squeezing you (most likely the reason for £10 to get pot HU IP BvB) with 99+,AJs,AQo,KQs,T9s-98s and continuing to flat with most of his range given price. 

I'm just pointing out its really dangerous to put as much time as you have thinking about this hand but then only restrict him QQ,KK which is basically what your doing when you say QQ+,AK.

As played with an Stack to Pot ratio of 1.6 on the flop, I don't mind a bet/fold on flop based on a strong read and a gut feel. Your turn sizing nice if you wanna jam river but if your not prepared to call river dont bet turn, just bluff call his river donk. Looks like he had the best hand tho, trying to induce you to shove on river.

Hope this helps, see you at the tables.

bolly580

im sat deep and im scared of the nuts so i got scared should be the title of this thread

rancid

wowza how do u fold :S