2 questions

Ploppy33

1st) Pub game other night 90k chips in play.

UTG Has 40k

Me in BB £37k

3rd 10k

4th 3k

Blinds 300/600

UTG shoves - very loose player plays every hand regardless on pre action (being pub game normally limps only) - incidentally had JJ.

I have AK suited - is this a instafold (I did & got loadsa abuse & unanimously outvoted that this was a call every day of the week?

2nd)

I'm finding im going out of tourneys  in the same method quite a lot - should I accept this or stop doing it

ie Have good reads on player (as following example) that flop pot bet is a draw (oppo always check raises made hands & donk bets marginals & pot bet draws) - I also know that if I raise he shoves & if I shove he calls

Incidentally the fact that he has AK here (and is statistically favourite) is irrelevant as oppo will play Jh 7s in exactly same manner (including pre).

Should I risk my tourney on these 60/40 spots - my argumenmt for doing so up till now is that I KNOW (as much as possible) that I am ahead when the money goes in - but that is scant concellation when he hits - which is often.

Imafish	Small blind		20.00	20.00	4740.00
daddysu	Big blind		40.00	60.00	5695.00
	Your hole cards	Q Q
xx	Raise		80.00	140.00	6642.50
Ploppy33	Raise		200.00	340.00	5246.25
POKERMENAC	Fold
KEITH1960	Fold
Imafish	Fold
daddysu	Fold
xx	Call		120.00	460.00	6522.50
Flop
		10 5 2
xx	Bet		460.00	920.00	6062.50
Ploppy33	All-in		5246.25	6166.25	0.00
xx	All-in		6062.50	12228.75	0.00
xx	Unmatched bet		1276.25	10952.50	1276.25
xx	Show	K A
Ploppy33	Show	Q Q
Turn
		3
River
		J
xx	Win	Flush to the King	10952.50		12228.75

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percival09

raise bigger pre

if you are 100000% certain he's drawing you may as well just shove imo. 

beaneh

RE Pub game hand what are the payouts? there are many reasons to fold with thet stack sizes of the others.

With the QQ if you are SO SURE that he has a draw you can call flop get it in on blank turns but that leaves yourself open to mistakes if your read is wrong.

percival09

beaneh if he just flats villains bet flop, and it blanks, we might not get any more ££.. would it notmake sense to raise flop with intention of obv getting it in

I suppose youre right actually - we're quite deep may as well reduce variance and hope he donks it all away on blank turn

Ploppy33

In Response to Re: 2 questions:

beaneh if he just flats villains bet flop, and it blanks, we might not get any more ££.. would it notmake sense to raise flop with intention of obv getting it in I suppose youre right actually - we're quite deep may as well reduce variance and hope he donks it all away on blank turn
Posted by percival09

My problem with this is I dont know where I am if A or K comes & also given that oppo has any 2 - 1 of which is a heart (fairly sure) i could be letting 2 pair hands get there as well.

At the levels I play +50% are willing to get 200BB in on a non-nut draw - my point is should I be playing vs this when I know that they have roughly 40% equity - late on its a no brainer but early on should I just give up with overpairs vs draw heavy boards where the LAGs are showing interest?

Re pub game £45 1st, £20 2nd (£5 buy-in)

jugglegeek

The first hand is a sigh fold and the real donk of the hand IMO is the UTG chip leader. You can only really call with aces in this spot. With 1st and 2nd getting paid out and 3rd in chips having just 16BB you and big stack should be putting pressure on the other two and there is no reason to butt* heads with the chip leader. A better play from him would be to min raise to 1200, this puts your AK in a tricky spot if the other two fold; and if he gets you out of the hand then he can jam on any flop. Even if he has AQ in this spot, an you know that he has AQ, I think you should still fold.

Could someone ICM this situation and find out what the villian would have to have to make a call profitable?

beaneh

With only two paid just fold the AK because of the 3k stack.

If we put villain in hand 2 on a FD we can either get it in on the flop with him having 9 out mins or we can see a blank turn and have him have half the chance to hit a flush and potentially fold the draw if he recognises that he's been priced out.

If you aren't sure what other cards you wont like then just either get it in on the flop or play the turn and make some mistakes lol!

Lambert180

Pub Game = easy fold, especially with the payout structure.

QQ Hand - 3bet bigger pre, I think just flatting the flop is better and re-assessing on the river.

profman15

Hi Ploppy

A well put post and something i understand completely. You have a good read and have decided he's on a draw. Well play it by pot odds and the rules of 4 and 2. His chance of hitting his heart is 36% so slightly more than a 2 to 1 underdog. you need to put in .....and so on but how about just calling the flop bet. If its a heart you ch/fold as you are sure he's on a draw, aren't you. If its not you go all-in and are then he is the underdog.
By the way, raise more pre flop is fine(3x) i'd say but makes no difference whatsoever in this hand, i feel.