Still Struggling With Poker Odds

robbie1992

I have studied poker odds and i understand everything fine, i just dont have them come into effect enough when im playing so im wondering if im looking at it correctly.

For instance if i got 2 flush cards on the flop and my hole cards are 2 flush cards, i have 9 outs. around 36% chance, 1:2.5? so if the pot is £6 the opponent has to be £1.50 for me to call or i have to fold?

and for the turn say i call there be a £9 pot and odds of around 18% of hitting, 1:5, so it has so be about £1.75?

This will never ever be the bet sizing, so surely i must be getting it wrong, just would like some advice on it all, thanks,

Lambert180

well on the flop you only have a 36% chance of hitting it IF you play to the river. Otherwise the odds are 18% to hit it on the turn and if you miss, 18% again to hit it on the river.

So 1in5 times you will hit the card you want as the next card, which means if someone bets £2 into £10, you have to call £2 to possibly win £12, so you are getting 6X your investment. and can justify the call. More often than not you will never be getting the direct odds to call for a flush, but there are generally implied odds, that if you do hit you will win alot more than you had to put in.

So for instance, if the pot was £5 and you had to call £2 to see the next card, you're not getting the correct odds, but if you think that on the times you do hit your flush, you will be able to get him to put in another £15 by the river. Then you're really paying £2 to win the £5 in there the extrra £15 you can get off him, and if you miss, you can fold having lost only £2

Talon

 You are making a few fundamental errors in your thinking here.

  With your flush draw example  you are 36% which is just under 2 to 1, 33% would be exactly 2 to 1 .

 What this means is that if your opponent bets full pot then you are being offered exactly 2 to 1. In your pot of 6 example a full pot bet would be 6 and then you would have to call 6 to win 18 which is exactly 2 to 1. This is the easiest way to think about it. Just remember that full pot is 2 to 1 and you will be fine.


  The other thing to think about is that this is only on the flop and getting to see both cards. Remember that on the turn your odds are halved so you go from 1 in 3 to 1 in 6, which means that you go from 2 to 1 to 5 to 1.

  Even with these odds there are so many other variables to consider. Firstly is your draw to the nuts or close to it because you could hit and still lose. Secondly are any of your cards still live( overs to the board) so they might give you the best hand anyway therfore increasing your chances.
 

Slykllist

What you need to look at is the amount that you have to put into the pot compared to how much you stand to win.

So.... in the example above if the pot is £6.00 and your opponent bets £1.50 it is costing you £1.50 to potentially win £7.50 (£6.00 + the additional £1.50), this is pot odds of 5:1 which is double the odds you would require to make a call here.

To 'price the flush draw out' your opponent needs to be betting enough to make the pot odds less than approx 2.8:1  (you odds of completing your flush if you see both the turn and the river) in this case, a 2/3 pot sized bet of £4.00 would mean you have to pay £4.00 to potentailly win £10.00 giving you pot odds of 2.5:1 which is not enough to draw to your flush assuming you have no other outs.

Note.... in this example if he bets 1/2 the pot, £3.00 this gives you pot odds of 3:1 which would make a call the correct.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Still Struggling With Poker Odds:

What you need to look at is the amount that you have to put into the pot compared to how much you stand to win. So.... in the example above if the pot is £6.00 and your opponent bets £1.50 it is costing you £1.50 to potentially win £7.50 (£6.00 + the additional £1.50), this is pot odds of 5:1 which is double the odds you would require to make a call here. To 'price the flush draw out' your opponent needs to be betting enough to make the pot odds less than approx 2.8:1  (you odds of completing your straight if you see both the turn and the river) in this case, a 2/3 pot sized bet of £4.00 would mean you have to pay £4.00 to potentailly win £10.00 giving you pot odds of 2.5:1 which is not enough to draw to your flush assuming you have no other outs. Note.... in this example if he bets 1/2 the pot, £3.00 this gives you pot odds of 3:1 which would make a call the correct.
Posted by Slykllist

I'm sorry Slykllist but this isn't correct. It's a very common mistake to count your odds of making the flush as 2:1 on the flop. This is only the case when your opponent has moved all-in or you believe it is highly unlikely that your opponent will bet the turn.

When neither of those is true, the only relevant direct odds on the flop are the odds of hitting on the turn; meaning 4:1. If your opponent bets half-pot on the flop, offering you odds of 3:1, you do not have the correct direct odds to draw as on the turn they may bet again... So if they bet half-pot on the flop, half-pot on the turn then do not pay you off when you hit on the river, you have made a mistake by calling the previous two bets.

Of course, these odds are altered by your perception of your implied odds. Judging this a skill that takes time to acquire. However you should not be thinking about your odds to get to the river if you cannot guarantee getting there for that price. Calling half-pot bets with a bare flush-draw and no implied odds is a mistake, unless you have other opportunities to win the pot by bluffing.

Slykllist

Point taken BorinLoner, but I was trying not to get into the technicalities of implied odds and keeping it simple, note I did qualify with - (your odds of completing your flush if you see both the turn and the river)

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Still Struggling With Poker Odds:

Point taken BorinLoner, but I was trying not to get into the technicalities of implied odds and keeping it simple, note I did qualify with - (your odds of completing your flush if you see both the turn and the river)
Posted by Slykllist

You're right to say that, but it's the question of needing odds of worse than 2.8:1 to be priced out that is the issue. If your opponent bets half-pot and gives you odds of 3:1, you are still priced out with a flush draw. It's only the implied odds that alter that and we need to distinguish accurately between direct and implied odds in order to avoid confusion.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Still Struggling With Poker Odds:

 You are making a few fundamental errors in your thinking here.   With your flush draw example  you are 36% which is just under 2 to 1, 33% would be exactly 2 to 1 .  What this means is that if your opponent bets full pot then you are being offered exactly 2 to 1. In your pot of 6 example a full pot bet would be 6 and then you would have to call 6 to win 18 which is exactly 2 to 1. This is the easiest way to think about it. Just remember that full pot is 2 to 1 and you will be fine.   The other thing to think about is that this is only on the flop and getting to see both cards. Remember that on the turn your odds are halved so you go from 1 in 3 to 1 in 6, which means that you go from 2 to 1 to 5 to 1.   Even with these odds there are so many other variables to consider. Firstly is your draw to the nuts or close to it because you could hit and still lose. Secondly are any of your cards still live( overs to the board) so they might give you the best hand anyway therfore increasing your chances.  
Posted by Talon

This is not correct either, I'm afraid: 9 outs on the river, 46 cards remaining, so around 1 in 5 which means a little over 4:1. Just as the odds of hitting on the turn are 9:47.

robbie1992

thanks for all the advice some detailed answers.  its still abit confussing but i think i wasnt too far away from getting it right, implied odds im okay with so thanks everyone for the answers

Lambert180

In Response to Re: Still Struggling With Poker Odds:

thanks for all the advice some detailed answers.  its still abit confussing but i think i wasnt too far away from getting it right, implied odds im okay with so thanks everyone for the answers
Posted by robbie1992

Main thing to remember is, when you use the rule of 4... I.E. Multiply your outs by 4 on the flop to get your chance of hitting, or multiply it by 2 on the turn to get your chance of hitting. The multiplying it by 4 only works if you're going to see both the turn and river.

So if you wanna get true odds of literally 'can I just call this one bet on the flop, and fold the turn if I miss' then you need to multiply your outs by 2.

Essentially multiply your outs by 2 to get odds for the next card, multiply it by 4 for the flop AND turn

rancid

if u get offered 3/1 then snap ) implied odds will take care of the rest )