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River Value Bet - £5.25 HU Sit and Go.
BorinLoner
Member Posts: 3,863
The opponent is one of the tougher players at this level. He's called down a couple of streets with second pair once or twice but has been mostly solid and pretty aggressive. I've played him before and I think he probably knows I'm capable of bluffing multiple streets/donking off my stack. He has been coming over my bets and raises a fair amount and sometimes floating my c-bets.
If anyone has anything to say about the action up to the river, feel free. The question is really about this river bet, though.
Since he's called me down on two streets already, am I missing value on this river? If he had nothing he would either have raised before now or, more likely with this type of board, would have given up already. So I'm pretty confident he has some sort of value hand. There have to be some two-pairs in that range but the straights are obvious on this board and you'd expect a raise on the flop or turn from those two-pairs most of the time. He may have been allowing me to barrell, though. Am I leaving value behind against his range or is my bet about right?
I knew he might yet have a one-pair hand and my image might get this bet paid. Perhaps more pertinently I didn't think I'd get a call from the weak two-pairs if I bet too big: I haven't exactly been making huge bluffing bets up to this point.
| Player | Action | Cards | Amount | Pot | Balance |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BorinLoner | Small blind | 10.00 | 10.00 | 1540.00 | |
| 1009498 | Big blind | 20.00 | 30.00 | 1430.00 | |
| Your hole cards |
| ||||
| BorinLoner | Raise | 40.00 | 70.00 | 1500.00 | |
| 1009498 | Call | 30.00 | 100.00 | 1400.00 | |
| Flop | |||||
| |||||
| 1009498 | Check | ||||
| BorinLoner | Bet | 50.00 | 150.00 | 1450.00 | |
| 1009498 | Call | 50.00 | 200.00 | 1350.00 | |
| Turn | |||||
| |||||
| 1009498 | Check | ||||
| BorinLoner | Bet | 120.00 | 320.00 | 1330.00 | |
| 1009498 | Call | 120.00 | 440.00 | 1230.00 | |
| River | |||||
| |||||
| 1009498 | Check | ||||
| BorinLoner | Bet | 280.00 | 720.00 | 1050.00 | |
Comments
It's just the size: Am I overestimating the chances that i) he calls this smallish bet with one-pair some of the time and ii) he folds with weakish two pairs to a big bet (47, 48, 78, or 79 perhaps)?
If he only ever calls with two-pairs and up but doesn't lay down the weak two-pairs for a bigger bet, then obviously bigger would be better.
I understand it's tough to know without knowledge of the player. Just generally speaking, what do we all think?
Isn't 180-200 a bet designed purely to try to get value from a one-pair hand? Doesn't it leave a huge amount behind if they have better? Aren't alot of the one-pair hands now two-pairs by this river anyway?
Given that I've bet three streets and this river is going to be a disaster for any one-pair, is it realistic to think I'll get called at all by those hands? I made the bet thinking I might but wouldn't have posted if I didn't have doubts about that.
I've seem some of your posts and been impressed Borin. Could you or anyone help me wiith this once and for all please....
I'm trying to improve my HUPLAY by playing hu shuffles a little. May i ask if the blinds are say 10/20 does the phrase 'raise to 2BB' mean that the pot will then have 40+20=60 in, waiting for bb'b action.
You get in books 'raise 5k' not 'raise to 5k' which is different isn't it?
From the hand point of view imo what uv done is fine and im glad i would have done the same.
May i ask if that is the person's real name because if it is, shouldn't you rejig it so it doesn't advertise his play?
If you raise TO 2xBB, raising TO will always be the total amount you're putting in, so if you raise TO 750, then the full amount you've put in is 750 regardless of if it's a raise, 3bet, 4bet etc etc. So if you raise TO 2xBB then you are making it 40 in total @ 10/20. I wouldn't worry too much about the terminology though as long as you know what yuo want your bet to do.
the river bet is towards the top end of what i would bet.
on this board even 2 pair hands are hero calls for villain so you want to make it as easy for him to call as possible.
Bet smaller - It's fine - Bet Bigger
I suppose that means 280 isn't too bad. I couldn't make my mind up. I think seeing his hand and knowing that I definitely missed value caused me to doubt my sizing.
Profman, I see Lambert has answered your questions. Thanks for the kind words.