Maths experts advice needed.

booboo5205

  What are the odds of going out 4 times in a row not only to a str8 but the same str8 of A K Q J 10 ?

Goethe

In Response to Maths experts advice needed.:

  What are the odds of going out 4 times in a row not only to a str8 but the same str8 of A K Q J 10 ?
Posted by booboo5205

I was well into a response to this when one of Sky's helpful "pop-up" messages appeared and froze the page up - with the result that I had to reload it and lost the lot.

So here's the short version:

Assuming the two cards in the hole are part of the straight, and two of the three needed to complete it hit the board in first and second place:

(12/50) x (8/49) x (4/48 x 3/1) = 1/102, taken to the power of 4 for four identical incidences in succession where two of the straight cards are in the hole. My trusty Excel rustled this up to 1/108,597,386 or 108,597,385-1.

Don't be too impressed though. Knowing the probability of a series of identical long odds events happening after they've occured is of little value. It's a bit like knowing someone won the Euromillions last week.

booboo5205

 Wow thanks Goethe ,admire your maths abilty .Glad we have on here people with all different types of skills to help each other out. If anyone wants a gas pressure reducing station built in their back garden im your kiddy

Goethe

I should have added that the numbers above are committing to the hand pre-flop. If you had four to the straight after the flop, the odds would be much less - and will also differ depending on whether it was open ended or not.
The odds of somone chasing a straight past the flop with four in hand, and hitting home on the turn or the river four times in succession aren't that great (relative to the example above).