late stages £750 BH, already in cash

luvBWFC

Is this a stone cold all in for me or should i flat or fold? The small stack who is ai has £16 on his head if it makes a major difference

down to last 13 or so.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
SB	Small blind		500.00	500.00	26911.36
luvBWFC	Big blind		1000.00	1500.00	9023.58
	Your hole cards	K Q
UTG	Raise		2000.00	3500.00	15460.00
S1	Fold
S2	All-in		1897.41	5397.41	0.00
SB	Call		1500.00	6897.41	25411.36

Padzz77

Has the all-in player just lost a big pot to get that short?  Or has he been sitting there for ages waiting for a good hand?

Against 2 opponents, who are playing a wide range, but not just chucking it in with random junk, then you're losing more than 2 out of 3 times,  But there would be some dead money to play for.

If UTG comes along too, then you're losing more than 3 out of 4 if they all stay in to the end.

What would help you (possibly) would be if the 2 big stacks only just called pre-flop, and then one of them folded to the other's all-in bet on the flop.

So you're chances of going out on this hand would be very high. But if you struck lucky, then a good head prize and probably a big jump up the leaderboard too.  I dont think I would do it (the betting might indicate that some of your outs are in other player's hands), but its a matter of personal preference.

luvBWFC

small stack just lost a big hand prior to this one

Padzz77

In Response to Re: late stages £750 BH, already in cash:

small stack just lost a big hand prior to this one
Posted by luvBWFC

So maybe he has completely random cards (although he could throw away the very worst and wait to see at least one, possibly 2 more hands).

But I assume UTG came into the hand precisely because he wanted a shot at that bounty, and also that he knew others might want it too.  

Likewise the caller should be very strong here to be betting without trying to isolate.  I'm thinking that 99, TT, JJ either shoves or folds.

It's virtually impossible to think that you will be able to win without hitting.  And there's a good chance that not all 6 Ks and Qs are left in the deck.  If there's even one AK.AQ,QQ,KK, AA against you then you're in terrible shape.  And there might be 2 such hands.  

I would duck it personally without QQ, KK, AA

luvBWFC

My thinking was that SB was weak as I would have pushed a strong hand in his spot to isolate teh relatively large bounty on the short stack UTG was the one I was unsure of.

Padzz77

In Response to Re: late stages £750 BH, already in cash:

My thinking was that SB was weak as I would have pushed a strong hand in his spot to isolate teh relatively large bounty on the short stack UTG was the one I was unsure of.
Posted by luvBWFC

You might be right.

But I dont think they both fold.

If UTG is scared of SB, then maybe he waits for a better spot.

Alternatively, if UTG shoves then SB might decide that a 4 way pot is an unnecessary gamble and might fold.

So your chances of being against "just" 2 opponents aint terrible.  

But even if its only 2, its not all that likely that neither has an A and neither has a pair.  

Against 2 opponents, you're probably no more than about 30% to win the whole pot.   

I suppose there is some chance of of losing the main pot to the shorty, but still winning the side pot.  That would still be an improvement for you, of course, but no head prize.  Most of the times you hit are already counted in the 30% chance of winning whole pot, and I doubt there is much chance of you winning the side pot without hitting.  So let's say 65% chance of going out completely, 5% of increasing your stack size and 30% chance of getting the head prize and a good chance of a high finish.

However, that's against 2 players.  You're in much bigger denager of going out completely against 3 opponents.  At least 75%.   With your own head prize as well as shorty's then your opponents may also be willing to take the risks (especially SB who could bust 3 and still be alive if he fails).

Possibly its worth it.  Maybe depends on how valuable the £16 head prize is as opposed to getting into the top 10, and on how many other players look like busting out on other tables before you do if you play cautiously and look for a chance to double up against one oppnent.

grantorino

Meh I prob fold

luvBWFC

I pushed and was against 910os (shorty) and AJos UTG

shorty won the hand, UTG took me out

The **** bounties always entice me in to making the bad decision!

BorinLoner

I don't think the small blind's range is going to be very strong at all. He's going to 3-bet here with all his big pairs to avoid playing a flop three-handed, out of position and to get max value out of hands like AJ, without giving his opponent the chance to get away on the flop. I think it's much more likely that he's playing a weak range.

The UTG player on the other hand should never be raising to 2BB and then folding for 8BB more. He has to anticipate your shove and therefore needs to be holding a hand that he's content to get it in with. He also should be aware of the small blind's weak range.

The short stack's range is pretty irrelevant.

So you should have no fold equity here and you're never going to be getting it in with the best hand. The dead money does add alot of value to the shove but I think you'll see AK, AQ, QQ, KK or AA alot of the time. The rest of the time that you're against Ax or an underpair, you're getting great odds. As Padzz has said; with this much interest in the pot some of your Kings and Queens are likely to be out (That's a tough thing to quantify but it's something worth considering).

I'd say it's a fold. Look to get your 9BB in with some fold equity in a later hand. Lots of dead money and a short stack means shoving isn't all that bad, though. You'll just be crossing your fingers a bit.

I wouldn't advise taking too much notice of the bounties. The head-prizes of the players at the final table are the most valuable by far, so focus on getting there rather than taking risks to claim small amounts.

luvBWFC

Thanks, Agree 100%

anti_laugh

I fold, although the button is probably shooving with a huge range, you have to assume that the SB or UTG has you dominated or chasing. Wait for a better spot to jam it in and steal blinds.

profman15

I fold cos of that other guy after the bounty...you could lose a big pot chasing...