Aces 3 hands running!

j3ono

Yesterday in the 1130 bh had AA 3 hands running, which i balieve is odds of 10 million to 1ish.

But what are the odds of them being the same TWO ACES.

Hand History #567136368 (12:39 24/09/2012)PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceChansSmall blind 75.0075.0022437.50j3onoBig blind 150.00225.0012970.00 Your hole cardsAA   ricksbar1Call 1j3onoSmall blind 75.0075.008312.50ricksbar1Big blind 150.00225.009465.00 Your hole cardsAA   RUTSTER19Raise 300.00525.007065.00wetpaperFold

ricksbar1Small blind 75.0075.009390.00RUTSTER19Big blind 150.00225.006915.00 Your hole cardsAA   wetpaperFoldThis has got to be pretty near impossible???

luvBWFC

hope u got paid on at least one of them!

yoyo

i had them 3 times in 5 hands at a £500 final table in blackpool many years ago...i seem to recall only one of them holding up...

j3ono

no mate 1st got called aipf by jj who hit set, next i was short so did a tilt push to a raise and 2/3 limpers all folded.

The 3rd on button std 3x sb bb folded:( but did win the mtt in the end.

GaryQQQ

5 minute break quick answer;

there are 1326 possible combos of 2 cards in the deck

after you have been dealt them once there is a 1/1326 chance it will come again the second time, then a 1/1326 chance again for the third time

1/1326 x 1/1326 = 1/1,758,276 chance

j3ono

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

5 minute break quick answer; there are 1326 possible combos of 2 cards in the deck after you have been dealt them one there is a 1/1326 chance it will come the second time, then a 1/1326 chance again for the third time 1/1326 x 1/1326 = 1/1,758,276 chance
Posted by GaryQQQ

Thanks Gary so not that impressive lol, not euromillons odds range then

GaryQQQ

btw, it is invalid to multiply the  1/1326 number 3 times unless you name the exact two hole-cards, including suits,  before the first of the three hands is dealt.

j3ono

so these odds are a crock unless i called that i would be delt AA before the cards are delt

Pocket Aces once: 4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221

Pocket Aces twice in a row: 1/221 x 1/221= 1/48,841

Pocket Aces three times in a row: 1/221 x 1/221 x 1/221 = 1/10,793,861

So approximately, 1 in 10.8 million

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

so these odds are a crock unless i called that i would be delt AA before the cards are delt Pocket Aces once: 4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221 Pocket Aces twice in a row: 1/221 x 1/221= 1/48,841 Pocket Aces three times in a row: 1/221 x 1/221 x 1/221 = 1/10,793,861 So approximately, 1 in 10.8 million
Posted by j3ono

Those odds are correct if you ask 'what are the odds I will be dealt pocket AA in my next 3 hands?'

They are not correct if you have already had them dealt once, and you wonder if you will get them twice again.

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

5 minute break quick answer; there are 1326 possible combos of 2 cards in the deck after you have been dealt them once there is a 1/1326 chance it will come again the second time, then a 1/1326 chance again for the third time 1/1326 x 1/1326 = 1/1,758,276 chance
Posted by GaryQQQ

If you dont assume that the first pair are a given then the odds are Woooooshhhh   Way up there 

j3ono

Okay basically i want to know then what are the odds my NEXT 3 hands are AA but the same 2 Aces.

Thanks guys

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

so these odds are a crock unless i called that i would be delt AA before the cards are delt Pocket Aces once: 4/52 x 3/51 = 1/221 Pocket Aces twice in a row: 1/221 x 1/221= 1/48,841 Pocket Aces three times in a row: 1/221 x 1/221 x 1/221 = 1/10,793,861 So approximately, 1 in 10.8 million
Posted by j3ono

These odds are correct for any pair of aces,  as the origin posier asked for the odds of a specific pair of Aces then Gary's cals are correct 

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

i had them 3 times in 5 hands at a £500 final table in blackpool many years ago...i seem to recall only one of them holding up...
Posted by yoyo

Hope it was the last time you got them that they held up ;o)

GaryQQQ

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

Okay basically i want to know then what are the odds my NEXT 3 hands are AA but the same 2 Aces. Thanks guys
Posted by j3ono

1/1326 x 1/1326 x 1/1326 = 1/2,331,473,976

(if you name the two suits before the first hand, divide by 6 if you do not)

profman15

Hi guys

The probability depends on how you word the q a Gary QQQ stated. I spent 20+ years teaching it and correcting students errors......

The probabililty of getting three pairs of aces in row depends on whether you mean you're assuming you have got the first pair already. Its the wording that affects the figures. The pobabilities are exact. When i taught it the hardest part for the students was understanding what they were actually looking for . The calculations weren't the problem, generally.

Yoyo's coincidence of three sets of aces in five hands would have to involve a calculation to allow for the possible orders too. It's not too difficult, just gets fiddly...

PS Funny isn't it how that 80% equity never seems enough(or is even true at times!). Must be psycological. Remembering the bad ones more etc....in DTD last night had AA cracked by QQ and then TT cracked by AA. Which will i remember more? Neither in a couple of days or so. Until then.......

JockBMW

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

Okay basically i want to know then what are the odds my NEXT 3 hands are AA but the same 2 Aces. Thanks guys
Posted by j3ono

Ok that's 1/1326 x 1/1326 x 1/1326

= 1 / 2,331,473,976  or 2,331,473,975 to 1 against ;o)

j3ono

okies gary thanks that HUGE. and never likely to happen again?

luvBWFC

Oddly enough it's just as unlikely to get 72os 3 hands on the trot, but that seems to occur much more frequently!

Slykllist

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

Oddly enough it's just as unlikely to get 72os 3 hands on the trot, but that seems to occur much more frequently!
Posted by luvBWFC

There are 2 ways you can be dealt 72os: 7 first 2 second, or 2 first 7 second therefore odds are twice as high as pocket Aces.

wayne1958

j3ono, ar you a sky poker bot iv been reading about ... lol....

j3ono

In Response to Re: Aces 3 hands running!:

j3ono, ar you a sky poker bot iv been reading about ... lol....
Posted by wayne1958

0111 1001  0100 0101  0101 0011