Bubble Play call/fold?

pokermum64

4 People left top 2 get a £110 seat and 3rd gets £88. Cant fully remember the stack sizes of the other 2 but it was like 12k and 8k.. If i put the villans range on any 2 cards im at best a 60/40 fav, do you call here? or fold and hope one of the bigger stacks get him out? PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceJETSON887Small blind 200.00200.001365.00pokermum64Big blind 400.00600.002580.67 Your hole cards2A   Jamash147Fold    littlelouFold    JETSON887All-in 1365.001965.000.00

Padzz77

In Response to Bubble Play call/fold?:

4 People left top 2 get a £110 seat and 3rd gets £88. Cant fully remember the stack sizes of the other 2 but it was like 12k and 8k.. If i put the villans range on any 2 cards im at best a 60/40 fav, do you call here? or fold and hope one of the bigger stacks get him out? Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance JETSON887 Small blind   200.00 200.00 1365.00 pokermum64 Big blind   400.00 600.00 2580.67   Your hole cards 2 A       Jamash147 Fold         littlelou Fold         JETSON887 All-in   1365.00 1965.00 0.00
Posted by pokermum64

I cant see any of the stacks, including yours.

But unless you are either so short stacked yourself that you cannot afford to lose your blind, or else have enough so that you will still have more than double if you lose, then it's probably better to fold.

As you say, your very best case scenario is that he has no Ace and no pair.  That is still a 40% chance that you double him up.

But quite often he has either an Ace (so you double him up 75% of time) or a pair (he wins 70%).

It's likely you have a better chance of making top 3 by sitting this one out.  

pokermum64

I have 2.9k at there start so ill have 2.5k if i fold and hes stack would go up to 2k.

Dumbmo

Call faster than you can click the button.

Stu

profman15

Hi pokermum

This is a mathematical problem involving stack sizes and icm. The Bubble Factors which are values that give truer tournament pot odds than the actual pot odds are such that they has little affect.
Consequently it comes down to whether the all in should be called. I have used an estimate for your equity of 55% and considered the 'cost' of folding or playing and winning as well as playing and losing. Using these calculations they show that you should CALL. The breakeven equity you can have is 38% so you are well up on that. Hope this helps and you won through....

pokermum64

Thank you for your reply. I’m still bad at the maths behind most of this stuff I guess I’ll have to do some research, and yes I finished 3rd ended up shoving AK and getting called by A2, 2 on the river

(called the shove and won that particular hand, just wanted to know if the call was correct for future reference)