In Response to Re: Hmmm spot vs nit to get into profit: thoughts? : If we believe oppo shutsdown on all scary turns, but fires 3/4pot+ 1st to speak on all blank turns, how do we then feel about 3betting to get it in feeling strongly oppo will always 4bet shove (this was line I took, hindsight being 3bet shoving is likely a better line). If we mentally commit to flipping just over a BI can it be argued that committing at highest point of equity could be fine. In honesty this was the reasoning within the hand, as vs this particular opponent it would be difficult to extract value once my hand is made, and extremely difficult to play for his stack. Posted by AMYBR
Can't we use the info in bold to our advantage?
Say we flat call.
There's 47 cards we havent seen.
9/47 give us a diamond flush.
3/47 give us a straight.
So 12/47, you're worried that flat calling on flop loses value because we "only" get his preflop chips.
But what about the 4 Aces?
If we're definitely saying he has either 2 pair or a set, then he dont have no stinkin' Aces.
So 4/47, the next card is an Ace. If he aint calling our bet on a J then he aint calling our bet on a J either.
And what about T. We have one of those. So 3/47 it's a T. Doesnt he fold to that if he folds to a J.
And a 9 can make a straight too?
So what is a brick for oppo?
Non diamond 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8 ? That's only 18/47.
As for K, Q, 4, we dont know what's in his hand, but he does. So if KQ4 comes and he bets, then we should be glad we only flat called. He probably made a house and we' be drawind dead. Failing that, if he only made 3 pair, then we're still only a 20% (ish) shot to win by making flush or straight on river. [But, if he does check with one of these cards, esp K, and he is a big of a nit as your reads say, and. if we're happy to "GII", then his check on turn is a perfect opportunity.]
So some of the time we turn (more or less the nuts), and some of the time we hit a great bluffing card. Only around 38% of the time is it the kind of card that our opponent wants to bet big when he speak first. And some of those are hands we are glad to fold to anyway.
So it he is definitely gonna fold to a danger card, and he is definitely on 2 pr or a set, then we should flat call and use our FE on the turn.
In reality, he could have AA, or AK, or AQ, or Ad and another d. So we could not be guaranteed to have so many shove cards. But even then, flat calling gives us chance to make a decision after we have seen turn, and oppo's action. Which is probably better than getting it all in pre when we think we are behind.
Board: Kd 4d Qs Dead: equity win tie pots won pots tied Hand 0: 38.620% 38.62% 00.00% 3441 0.00 { Td9d } Hand 1: 61.380% 61.38% 00.00% 5469 0.00 { KQs, KQo } download 'pokerstove' its free pretty simple to use Posted by LOL_RAISE
Please correct me if am wrong, but when we stove are we not receiving % based on a sample of hands vs specific ranges.
If we are talking about a live hand in isolation (rather than crunching through x no. of MT online) should we shave our equity based upon runner runners and potential redraws? Have to be honest this is something that I simply dont do live. I simply just re do the simplest form of math on each street or run it when committing.
Online yes. Does the huge reduction in hand frequency (live 1 table vs online 4table+) address the balance or have I more reading to do?
versus AK your 50% versus 2 pr you 40% versus set your 35%
If you assign oppo a range of AK/KQ/44 then your equity maybe 43%
Number may not be exact because I am just guessing but just trying to explain the method Because I have these rough numbers in my head to allow to make decisions live & online
Just a numbers game, the hand is the same on one table or if your playing across 20 tables online If it's -EV then that's what it is
Your initial reasons for flipping were because you have 13 outs, but you have to factor in oppos range or indeed in this case the very narrow range of 2 prs/sets - because of this your equity goes down because oppo has outs that kill yours plus redraws
If you widen range to include draws/one pr hands then it will change you equity again
You can't just say I have x amount of outs and get it in, becuase you have to factor in oppo hand range The wider oppo hand range the easier it is to stick it all in with 13 outs for example because you will also have FE if oppo range is wide and obviously you have very good chance of winning -
semi bluffing without fe is not good not thinking about oppo range of hands and how much equity oppo has also is not good
The more equity oppo has the less you will have unless you have take some equity back in the form of FE
In Response to Re: Hmmm spot vs nit to get into profit: thoughts? : Please correct me if am wrong, but when we stove are we not receiving % based on a sample of hands vs specific ranges. If we are talking about a live hand in isolation (rather than crunching through x no. of MT online) should we shave our equity based upon runner runners and potential redraws? Have to be honest this is something that I simply dont do live. I simply just re do the simplest form of math on each street or run it when committing. Online yes. Does the huge reduction in hand frequency (live 1 table vs online 4table+) address the balance or have I more reading to do? Posted by AMYBR
i really dont get this post, are you saying you should ignore their redraws because it only happens once in a few months while playing live? all that would acheive is you thinking you have more equity than you do and end up making pretty big mistakes
1) Raise pre is bad imo, Scotty nailed it on page 1. You're (basically) never getting folds with a 4x 4way, and making stacks (effectively) shorter with T9s, multiway. If it was T9o, would you just check it in the BB? If not, you're trying to raise T9o for value OOP, against multiple stations. If yes, I think we're committing the "Because it's SUUUUUITED" sin, and should probably step back, re-think, and approach these spots better from here on out.
2) Flop cbet isn't that bad, but this is the trouble we have with our PFR, and we're getting punished for it. With about 35PSB (SUPER-UBER DEEP), we coulda just check-called twice, not expecting to get a fold 4way on KQ5s. Now we're 'expected' to cbet (which is only fine if we think we have FE) and call a raise from someone who prolly has the nuts. Now, the implied odds of binking the Xd or Jx are greatly reduced because of the bloated pot, and we're put in a 'lolwtf' spot, which has only come about because of our PFR. Even if we take the same line w/o the raise pre, we can just bet-snap any raise and look for binkage.
3) As played, and with our reads on villian i think it's a clear fold, unless you think he's willing to stack off on any diamond-ball. In which case, call + get there, check folding anything that doesn't give you the perverbial nutties.
In Response to Re: Hmmm spot vs nit to get into profit: thoughts? : i really dont get this post, are you saying you should ignore their redraws because it only happens once in a few months while playing live? all that would acheive is you thinking you have more equity than you do and end up making pretty big mistakes Posted by LOL_RAISE
In complete honesty i've never factored in redraws %'s. Which is obv a mistake and something I'll clearly have to re think and plug. Pov up until now has been our clean live outs are our.... well clean live outs. Too fear redraws that dont exhist when we commit (or are beyond thin) is likened to playing fearful lines and fearing oppo's getting there: being mainly redundant. But I obviously have to rethink this as its just blatantly simple that it will affect immediate %.
Apologies on long reply, been away for day. And Ty
And again for clarity. I'm not saying I would always take this line, in fact most often I wouldnt. Situationally its the fact that we are 4 handed, winding down, playing vs an individual who will shutdown easily and (as thread stated) just mostly looking for a spot to get into profit as game winds down.
Obv stacks shorter happy to check option. If I feel like will get 3bet obv check option. If I believe oppo will not be so tight for his stack or likely make a stack size mistake on a later street I flat c/r or just c/c flop.
Maybe I ought to have gone to greater lengths to have explained that this was a mostly situational spot rather than just a number crunch
Situation is oppo is never folding and your happy getting it in behind if you happy to gambol as a dog with a buy in then ok, we have all done it ) There are a lot of good posts on this thread, a lot to take away and think about Posted by rancid
Yh +1 to the not raising Preflop, really bad reverse implied odds because people are going to have hands like K8dd, A2dd, J9o, QT, JT etc and we're deepish and OOP vs ranges capable of crushing us.
It would be a much more appealing spot to 3bet squeeze, as in the BTN makes it £6 and we make it £26, that way we'll prolly clean some of equity up and get HU with initiative and T9dd plays nicely here (lots of boards to semi-bluff, a ton of post flop FE etc)
As played if you know that your opponent is never going to fold (pretty sure someone already said this) but going all-on becomes the worst option. Calling firstly to make sure the board doesn't pair (can assume we'll be dead a decent % of the time when it does) and being able to fold when it does (we're never making a mistake either here cos we have T high) I think most of the time depending on what he bets OTT you'll have quite a meh call/fold spot but I think you'll very often get paid when a diamond hits even after this action (people are very stubborn in live poker generally)
If you give yourself even a shred of fold equity then the maths around this spot become emtremely forgiving, if you truly have no fold equity then they can be pretty harsh
Comments
Board: Kd 4d Qs
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 38.620% 38.62% 00.00% 3441 0.00 { Td9d }
Hand 1: 61.380% 61.38% 00.00% 5469 0.00 { KQs, KQo }
download 'pokerstove' its free pretty simple to use
If we are talking about a live hand in isolation (rather than crunching through x no. of MT online) should we shave our equity based upon runner runners and potential redraws? Have to be honest this is something that I simply dont do live. I simply just re do the simplest form of math on each street or run it when committing.
Online yes. Does the huge reduction in hand frequency (live 1 table vs online 4table+) address the balance or have I more reading to do?
versus AK your 50%
versus 2 pr you 40%
versus set your 35%
If you assign oppo a range of AK/KQ/44 then your equity maybe 43%
Number may not be exact because I am just guessing but just trying to explain the method
Because I have these rough numbers in my head to allow to make decisions live & online
Just a numbers game, the hand is the same on one table or if your playing across 20 tables online
If it's -EV then that's what it is
Your initial reasons for flipping were because you have 13 outs, but you have to factor in oppos range or indeed in this case the very narrow range of 2 prs/sets - because of this your equity goes down because oppo has outs that kill yours plus redraws
If you widen range to include draws/one pr hands then it will change you equity again
You can't just say I have x amount of outs and get it in, becuase you have to factor in oppo hand range
The wider oppo hand range the easier it is to stick it all in with 13 outs for example because you will also have FE if oppo range is wide and obviously you have very good chance of winning -
semi bluffing without fe is not good
not thinking about oppo range of hands and how much equity oppo has also is not good
The more equity oppo has the less you will have unless you have take some equity back in the form of FE
2) Flop cbet isn't that bad, but this is the trouble we have with our PFR, and we're getting punished for it. With about 35PSB (SUPER-UBER DEEP), we coulda just check-called twice, not expecting to get a fold 4way on KQ5s. Now we're 'expected' to cbet (which is only fine if we think we have FE) and call a raise from someone who prolly has the nuts. Now, the implied odds of binking the Xd or Jx are greatly reduced because of the bloated pot, and we're put in a 'lolwtf' spot, which has only come about because of our PFR. Even if we take the same line w/o the raise pre, we can just bet-snap any raise and look for binkage.
3) As played, and with our reads on villian i think it's a clear fold, unless you think he's willing to stack off on any diamond-ball. In which case, call + get there, check folding anything that doesn't give you the perverbial nutties.
EZ game.
GL out there boys,
Smitalos.
Apologies on long reply, been away for day. And Ty
Obv stacks shorter happy to check option. If I feel like will get 3bet obv check option. If I believe oppo will not be so tight for his stack or likely make a stack size mistake on a later street I flat c/r or just c/c flop.
Maybe I ought to have gone to greater lengths to have explained that this was a mostly situational spot rather than just a number crunch
if you happy to gambol as a dog with a buy in then ok, we have all done it )
There are a lot of good posts on this thread, a lot to take away and think about