Neer the Bubble

darryn1973 · November 2012

Hi All

i was playing the £1000 Jackpot freeroll last night and was 20th with about 30 players left. forgettining the result of my hand winning was this the correct play against two all ins near the bubble? i had decided to call the 1st all-in because he was going all-in with any two cards but was scared of the 2nd player having AA,KK or AK. comments please.

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
darryn1973	Small blind		600.00	600.00	13015.00
XXXXXXX	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	27435.00
	Your hole cards	Q Q
Villian 1	All-in		8591.66	10391.66	0.00
XXXXXX	Fold
Villian 2	All-in		13070.00	23461.66	0.00
darryn1973	Fold
XXXXXXX	Fold
XXXXXXX	Unmatched bet		4478.34	18983.32	4478.34
XXXXXXXX	Show	4 A
XXXXXXXX	Show	10 A
Flop
		9 4 3
Turn
		7
River
		7
XXXXXXXX	Win	Two Pairs, 7s and 4s	18983.32		18983.32

BorinLoner · November 2012

My understanding about this freeroll is that the top 20 all win £50. Or if not, that they all take the same prize. Is that correct?

Assuming it is, then the answer to whether this is a good fold depends largely on the stacks of the other players still in the tournament. We can see your stack size and the stacks of three others and they're not that small. However, if the majority of the other players in the tournament have stacks of around 5BB or smaller, then this fold is fine - You're likely to be able to simply fold to the money.

If the average stack size of the other players in the tournament is higher than this then I think you have to call here. You can't simply fold to the money and in this situation the two players are short stacked and therefore have a wide range for getting it in. That's going to mean that your QQ are ahead a high proportion of the time. You're more likely to make the money if you call than you are if you fold.

It's very much dependent on the stacks of the other players.

profman15 · November 2012

Hi d

If its 20 to pay then you aren't going to fold your way to the bubble. Both of the other players are in the same boat. The other players have csi of about 4 and 7 and you have 7.
There are equilibrium strategies for both pushing and calling with these values. Normally about 17% to call a 4 csi push( he can push with 30%). Now you are calling the 7 csi push but also have another player too. He could win but you could beat the bigger stack for his uncovered chips. On the other hand you could win both and probably give yourself the best chance of cashing. You are in the bb so have money invested too and these can be taken into account by these equilibrium strategies. Even playing tightly a 10% calling range is indicated so as QQ is a premier starting made hand then you should call.

Hope this helps. I know its difficult and i had AKs last night 10 away from cash in HJ with similar csi....I AI'd and was called by KK. Lost but it happens...you are at that stage and your stack relative to the blinds dictates what you must do mathematically from a game theory point of view. Hope you cashed m8.
After all you may have to AI more than once to ladder into cash and you can't do much worse than find this hand eh? Now if you win both stacks you may be able to glide into the cash...

PS you've called someone XXXXX in CO who isn't

darryn1973 · November 2012

Hi Prof

thanks for your comments. I was 50%/50% to call and didn't know what to do so folded as if I could cash £50 it would help my bankroll ( i went out on the bubble in 21st place 3 weeks ago).

I unfortunately ended up out in 26th or 27th placed when i shoved QQ and ran into KK.

better luck next time i hope

GL on the tables

bearlyther · November 2012

Easy allin 1 guy has shoved for 13 bigs and the other guy is allin for 4 bigs

1267 · November 2012

Snap call. You've got QUEEENSSS !!!

Herbie536 · November 2012

In Response to Neer the Bubble:

Hi All i was playing the £1000 Jackpot freeroll last night and was 20th with about 30 players left. forgettining the result of my hand winning was this the correct play against two all ins near the bubble? i had decided to call the 1st all-in because he was going all-in with any two cards but was scared of the 2nd player having AA,KK or AK. comments please. Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance darryn1973 Small blind 600.00 600.00 13015.00 XXXXXXX Big blind 1200.00 1800.00 27435.00 Your hole cards Q Q Villian 1 All-in 8591.66 10391.66 0.00 XXXXXX Fold Villian 2 All-in 13070.00 23461.66 0.00 darryn1973 Fold XXXXXXX Fold XXXXXXX Unmatched bet 4478.34 18983.32 4478.34 XXXXXXXX Show 4 A XXXXXXXX Show 10 A Flop 9 4 3 Turn 7 River 7 XXXXXXXX Win Two Pairs, 7s and 4s 18983.32 18983.32
Posted by darryn1973

Taking into account that this is a free roll, and the fact at this stage your 13k stack will have been one of the shorter stacks left in the tournament you have to call, from memory i think theres normally 500 ish players in this tourney and the stacks range from 1k to 5k, if you simplify things and say the average stack per player is 2.5k then that makes 1.25 million chips in play making the average chip stack a little over 40k for the remaining 30 players, you couldn't expect to fold your way to the top 20 and the money and Queens in this spot is just the treble up oppertunity you need and most would dream of (sorry)

Neer the Bubble

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