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The maths?

jonjo75jonjo75 Member Posts: 999
edited November 2012 in The Poker Clinic
In the late stages of the 12k BH and I went out to this hand.
Straight after the hand I was trying to work out the maths in my head and came up with him being a  very slight favourite after the flop but after running it on a poker odds calculator it said I was 60% fav.
I know I have one of his outs ( the 6 diamonds)  but that still gives him 14 outs.
Can anyone explain the maths to me?
Thanks.

PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceJayDoggSmall blind 1250.001250.0081432.25TommyDBig blind 2500.003750.0033862.00 Your hole cardsJJ   andyman999Fold    ????Raise 5855.009605.00164070.00jonjo75Raise 20000.0029605.0075946.25JayDoggFold    TommyDFold    ?????Call 14145.0043750.00149925.00Flop  8J6   ?????Check    jonjo75Bet 30000.0073750.0045946.25?????All-in 149925.00223675.000.00jonjo75All-in 45946.25269621.250.00??????Unmatched bet 73978.75195642.5073978.75???????Show57   jonjo75ShowJJ   Turn  2   River  4   ??????WinFlush to the Jack195642.50 269621.25
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  • GlenelgGlenelg Member Posts: 6,600
    edited November 2012
    In Response to The maths?:
    In the late stages of the 12k BH and I went out to this hand. Straight after the hand I was trying to work out the maths in my head and came up with him being a  very slight favourite after the flop but after running it on a poker odds calculator it said I was 60% fav. I know I have one of his outs ( the 6 diamonds)  but that still gives him 14 outs. Can anyone explain the maths to me? Thanks. 
    Posted by jonjo75
    THink you've read it wrong.  You have JJ.  He has 17 outs?
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  • jonjo75jonjo75 Member Posts: 999
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: The maths?:
    In Response to The maths? : THink you've read it wrong.  You have JJ.  He has 17 outs?
    Posted by Glenelg
    Really? How does he have 17?
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  • GlenelgGlenelg Member Posts: 6,600
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: The maths?:
    In Response to Re: The maths? : Really? How does he have 17?
    Posted by jonjo75

    9 x Diamonds left.  4 x 4's & 4 x 9's?

    edit: actually mite be 15 as 4d & 9d are duplicated?
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  • jonjo75jonjo75 Member Posts: 999
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: The maths?:
    In Response to  Re: The maths? : 9 x Diamonds left.  4 x 4's & 4 x 9's?
    Posted by Glenelg
    Yeah you are counting the 9d and the 4d twice and the 6d would give me a house.
    so its 8 diamonds , 3 x4s and 3 x9s =14
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  • GlenelgGlenelg Member Posts: 6,600
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: The maths?:
    In Response to Re: The maths? : Yeah you are counting the 9d and the 4d twice and the 6d would give me a house.
    Posted by jonjo75

    You are correct of course.  14 it is! 

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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited November 2012
    Yeah, your odds of winning the hand are higher than you think because even if he hits his flush, you have full house draws.
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  • simonnatursimonnatur Member Posts: 330
    edited November 2012
    he has 15 outs to make a flush or straight - he will do this roughly 60% of the time.

    However you will improve to a full house or quads roughly one third of these times - thats why he has roughly 40% equity 
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  • profman15profman15 Member Posts: 1,808
    edited November 2012
    Hi J

    Yea unfortunately when you consider outs then that is to find the chance of improving NOT winning the hand outright. For instance if you improve then the probability of your opponent improving and beating your even improved hand. Also equity includes split pot probabilities not outright win probabilities. There is a calculation that can be made but may be a bit complicated for here. As an ex maths teacher, i've had too many students fall asleep showing this stuff so you're better off sticking to pokerstove.

    In short, start with hand thats ahead...you.
    Now consider other hand...how many outs to improve his hand?....9+runner runner 5/7 no order as two pair will take pot too. (You can only make a rough calcs for these outs!)
    If he gets J diamonds on turn say to improve then you can win by pairing board for full house or catch remaining J for quads (yippee!!) so you can see there are permutations of hands involved in this calc.

    Rules of 4 and 2 are just approximations in order to tell you if you are making a good bet by considering the pot odds in comparison (a lot get around it by say "i had implied odds!).
    Hope this helps some......there are ways to self calc it all but they tend to be approximations. as ong as you can see where and why the differences come there's no real need when you only have a ten second clock as there "ain't no time!!' to do it.

    Hope this helps m8
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  • jonjo75jonjo75 Member Posts: 999
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: The maths?:
    he has 15 outs to make a flush or straight - he will do this roughly 60% of the time. However you will improve to a full house or quads roughly one third of these times - thats why he has roughly 40% equity 
    Posted by simonnatur
    Thanks this makes a lot of sense. I knew it was because if the board paired I would win but just couldnt work out the 60/40 split.
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  • jonjo75jonjo75 Member Posts: 999
    edited November 2012
    In Response to Re: The maths?:
    Hi J Yea unfortunately when you consider outs then that is to find the chance of improving NOT winning the hand outright. For instance if you improve then the probability of your opponent improving and beating your even improved hand. Also equity includes split pot probabilities not outright win probabilities. There is a calculation that can be made but may be a bit complicated for here. As an ex maths teacher, i've had too many students fall asleep showing this stuff so you're better off sticking to pokerstove. In short, start with hand thats ahead...you. Now consider other hand...how many outs to improve his hand?....9+runner runner 5/7 no order as two pair will take pot too. (You can only make a rough calcs for these outs!) If he gets J diamonds on turn say to improve then you can win by pairing board for full house or catch remaining J for quads (yippee!!) so you can see there are permutations of hands involved in this calc. Rules of 4 and 2 are just approximations in order to tell you if you are making a good bet by considering the pot odds in comparison (a lot get around it by say "i had implied odds!). Hope this helps some......there are ways to self calc it all but they tend to be approximations. as ong as you can see where and why the differences come there's no real need when you only have a ten second clock as there "ain't no time!!' to do it. Hope this helps m8
    Posted by profman15

    Yes thanks Prof.
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