KK facing raise on straightening/flushing flop. Is this a fold?

mj8bs

This hand took place live at a casino in central London. Buy in was £70. Starting stacks are 25000. Full ring game 9 handed.

Level 3 - Blinds 100/200

I start the hand with 21k chips 

MY HAND: KsKh

Preflop:

UTG - limps in for 200

UTG+1 - FOLD

UTG+2 - FOLD

MP - limps in for 200

HJ - limps in for 200

CO - FOLD

BTN - limps in for 200

SB - makes up the 100

BB (me) - Raise to 1200

UTG - call

MP - FOLD

HJ - call

BTN - FOLD

SB - FOLD

Pot size is now 4200 and Im completely out of position. 3 handed to the flop. Before he calls, UTG says he has his favorite cash hand...he generally doesnt lie at the table and we have history so im instantly putting him on a suited connector or suited gap connector. 

FLOP : 9s4c7c

BB (me) - bet 2500

UTG - raise to 7500

HJ - FOLD

I obviously think about it for a bit and start placing him on hands and eventually settle on either 97 suited OR Tc8c. 

I had a discussion about this hand with a mate of mine and he said my fold was too tight. He said there is more I am beating than losing to. I dont think my opponent is capable of bluffing here as he usually plays his cards and he knows Im likely to have a big hand more than likely an overpair to the board. So I dont think he makes the play with any one pair. Ive got 3.7k out of my 21k that I started the hand with invested here. I dont think I can flat the 7.5k and hope to see a safe turn card and jam the turn. ALso the opponent has me covered. Im actually behind to 97 and equity wise behind to Tc8c.

What are the general thoughts on the fold here and what line I could take? 

Is the fold here too tight?  FWIW the villain turned over Tc8c

mj8bs

Anyone have any thoughts at all? :-)

profman15

Hi mj

I was going to say that i didn't believe his 'fav cash hand' statement. Why would he say that? Then it turns out true! Double bluff eh to get you thinking. Mind, limp UTG can suggest suited connectors/gap-connectors. Flop is so nice for him and he is ahead of you equity-wise.

I'd say call. Looking at the flop, even if you believe his statement he probably only has a pair. If club or worry card  comes ch/fold but if blank , shove. The call still leaves you with about 13k ie m= 40+ so you you still have wiggle room. I feel you were a little tight to fold.

By the way, nicely set out sir.....

offshoot

dont put results in the OP. I dont mind folding as its pretty obvious what you have in this spot and limp/call then c/r flop is hardly ever a bluff.

mj8bs

Thank you for your post profman and offshoot. I also decided it cant really be a bluff.

Basically I went over this with a mate of mine and he said I didnt think about what hands I'm beating or have decent equity over. I have enough of a read/knowledge to know that he isnt doing this with one pair only. Maybe one pair and a draw. So I can rule out A9, K9, Q9, J9 or T9 unless it is of clubs. Against Ac9c, Kc9c, Qc9c, Jc9c, Tc9c Im behind equity wise. There is no other one pair hand in his range which is all Im beating. Im not beating any pocket pair that he plays like this (AA-TT he makes an UTG raise for sure). He doesnt make the flop raise with any other PP so he either has 77, 44...possibly a limp called 99. It just felt like a monster draw. Basically what hands does he do this with that Im beating? AcTc, Ac8c, Ac6c, Ac5c. My reads on the player is he is unlikely to play such a weak suited A or K out of position in a raised pot. So really I folded because Im not really beating anything?

Im flipping against 9cXc (apart from kc9c), losing to 97, 44, 99, 77 and an underdog against Tc8c. Does this thought process sound fair enough? (I trust my reads fully on this player).

With regards to calling the reraise, Im not the biggest fan of having such a large percentage of my stack in and folding on a bad turn card.  I think I have to make my decision on the flop and go with it.

profman15

Hi mj

I still feel that you have enough chips left if you did(~13k). Remember he may have more equity but even w/ a pr and draw he has 12-15 outs to improve which, if a poor card comes on turn , your ai would not give him the pot odds to call as he then is something like 24-30% so ~3-2.7 to 1 to catch and he is not  getting that is he? Yes he could be ahead but these are a smallish % of his range. If you have a good read , do you believe his fav hd cash comment. If so the a bad turn puts you in the drivng seat, i feel. One thing you do know is that you're not completely out of the hand an may have showdown value as your call may scare him if a bad card comes. These are just my thoughts...more expert opinions will follow hopefully.

simonnatur

I think you're right to the extent that if you shove the flop and are called, you'll generally be flipping at best. Even against 8c10c you have about 44% equity.

If you fold here you'll often be forced to take a flip with only marginally better equity further down the line, except of course you won't have the utility of a big stack early on.

I guess this comes down to your approach to tournaments and how relaxed you are about doubling up or busting early.