How much to play before results become meaningful?

shakinaces

Apologies if I've failed to use the search effeciently, did have a look but couldn't find an answer.

After reading a few diaries on here in November, I decided to use December for playing DYMs as a way to try and build my bankroll to a more appropriate level for NL10.

My inner nerd has forced me to keep a daily breakdown of stats to try and keep track of progress, especially to see if there is much difference in results depending on which buy-in I play (currently £2 and £3 only, but toying with adding £5 now I'm nearly at 50BI for that level).

I know the couple of hundred I've played to date can't be used as a significant sample size to drive just how lucky I've been during the first week - but what sort of volume would I need to play until to get a 'true' review of how I'm doing?

As a supplementary question, what sort of ROI% / win rate% (over and above breakeven) should I be seeing as 'acceptable' and 'good', in respect to judging whether I am doing well enough at the current level to make the step up?

LOL_RAISE

with dym's i gess 3-5% roi is really good over thousands of games

patwalshh

In Response to How much to play before results become meaningful?:

Apologies if I've failed to use the search effeciently, did have a look but couldn't find an answer. After reading a few diaries on here in November, I decided to use December for playing DYMs as a way to try and build my bankroll to a more appropriate level for NL10. My inner nerd has forced me to keep a daily breakdown of stats to try and keep track of progress, especially to see if there is much difference in results depending on which buy-in I play (currently £2 and £3 only, but toying with adding £5 now I'm nearly at 50BI for that level). I know the couple of hundred I've played to date can't be used as a significant sample size to drive just how lucky I've been during the first week - but what sort of volume would I need to play until to get a 'true' review of how I'm doing? As a supplementary question, what sort of ROI% / win rate% (over and above breakeven) should I be seeing as 'acceptable' and 'good', in respect to judging whether I am doing well enough at the current level to make the step up?
Posted by shakinaces

You'll get an indication over a couple dozen games. Slightly meaningful sample size (you'll know whether your a winning player long term or not) starts to kick in around 500 games. For accuracy 2000-5000 games. Solid winrate at £3s is 5% over fair sample size. Anything over 10% isn't sustainable. 

best of luck

FlashFlush

I asked the same question a while ago, as I started taking DYMs more seriously from the start of November. You need a thousand or so games for the ROI to be useable, but from the feedback I got then 5-7% is pretty darn good apparently.

I've played 495 games since I asked the question and my ROI is 11.6% but then I'm pretty Godlike ;-) ... I'm sure another 500 games time it will go down below 10% (Especially as I've now moved from £11 dyms to £16 and £22 games).

Jac35

Hi Shakin

Hope you don't mind but i checked your sharkscope.
12.2% is a fantastic start and although it is a small sample size i think it is enough to know that you can be a consistent winner at these games.
Maintaining that  roi would be very tough but even if you halved it then you could be making really good money at these games.
Dym's are the main things i play on here and they really are all about volume.
Personally if i were you i would drop the £2 games right now. The rake is higher and you are beating the £3's so i would leave them.
I played with you in a few games the other night and you clearly know exactly what you are doing and so i believe you if you stick at them you'll do very well.

How many tables are you playing?
As i said i believe volume is key at these for a number of reasons.
Variance obviously - you will run bad at times
Also if you are looking to put in significant hours at these then you can get a decent amount back in C4P's

Good luck
Jac

P.s Flash put his post up as i was writing this. 11.6%!! is fantastic, i checked it the other night and that is the highest i've seen over a decent sample. I've played just over 4000 this year and i'm at 9.3% which  i'm happy with. ( i'm very lucky )

FlashFlush

In Response to Re: How much to play before results become meaningful?:

Hi Shakin Hope you don't mind but i checked your sharkscope. 12.2% is a fantastic start and although it is a small sample size i think it is enough to know that you can be a consistent winner at these games. Maintaining that  roi would be very tough but even if you halved it then you could be making really good money at these games. Dym's are the main things i play on here and they really are all about volume. Personally if i were you i would drop the £2 games right now. The rake is higher and you are beating the £3's so i would leave them. I played with you in a few games the other night and you clearly know exactly what you are doing and so i believe you if you stick at them you'll do very well. How many tables are you playing? As i said i believe volume is key at these for a number of reasons. Variance obviously - you will run bad at times Also if you are looking to put in significant hours at these then you can get a decent amount back in C4P's Good luck Jac P.s Flash put his post up as i was writing this. 11.6%!! is fantastic, i checked it the other night and that is the highest i've seen over a decent sample. I've played just over 4000 this year and i'm at 9.3% which  i'm happy with. ( i'm very lucky )
Posted by Jac35

That's pretty awsome over 4k games!! It will take me a year to do 4k games as well I expect and if I'm anywhere near 9% I'd be happy :-)

shakinaces

Cheers for the posts all, I know luck has definitely been on my side for the past 5 days but it's good to know what sort of size of luck (assuming I've got close to achieving the 5% ROI without the luck!!)

The luck was certainly still evident for the first five minutes today, when this happened and I ended up with a nice double up + a bit...

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
xxxx	Small blind		10.00	10.00	1970.00
xxxx	Big blind		20.00	30.00	1950.00
	Your hole cards	A K
xxxx	Fold
xxxx	Fold
xxxx	Raise		100.00	130.00	1960.00
shakinaces	Call		100.00	230.00	1900.00
xxxx	Fold
xxxx	Call		80.00	310.00	1870.00
Flop
		10 J Q

Then my bad luck hit me square in the face from a non-poker angle as YET AGAIN our Sky Broadband decided to pack in at a point where I had 8 tables running and several at the late stages with me in an OK position   Really need to get round to changing to a decent provider... what a waste of luck-earned poker money!

shakinaces

In Response to Re: How much to play before results become meaningful?:

Hi Shakin Hope you don't mind but i checked your sharkscope. 12.2% is a fantastic start and although it is a small sample size i think it is enough to know that you can be a consistent winner at these games. Maintaining that  roi would be very tough but even if you halved it then you could be making really good money at these games. Dym's are the main things i play on here and they really are all about volume. Personally if i were you i would drop the £2 games right now. The rake is higher and you are beating the £3's so i would leave them. I played with you in a few games the other night and you clearly know exactly what you are doing and so i believe you if you stick at them you'll do very well. How many tables are you playing? As i said i believe volume is key at these for a number of reasons. Variance obviously - you will run bad at times Also if you are looking to put in significant hours at these then you can get a decent amount back in C4P's Good luck Jac P.s Flash put his post up as i was writing this. 11.6%!! is fantastic, i checked it the other night and that is the highest i've seen over a decent sample. I've played just over 4000 this year and i'm at 9.3% which  i'm happy with. ( i'm very lucky )
Posted by Jac35

I had no idea that this sort of stuff got picked up on those sort of sites - always thought they just tracked the proper (pro/high stakes) players rather than idiots like me!!

I had been playing the £2s as I started off with a £100 bankroll and thought it was prudent to split half £2/half £3... plus figured they would be easier, but having played roughly equal games of each for the past 5 days, my £3 results have been better every day!

I flit between 6-8 tables... get quite a few games in during spare time but nothing like others on here ie nothing to make it worthy worrying about the C4P... but it'll be a nice bonus each month anyway

offshoot

No idea about DYMs but on a side note: When playing cash i always get the feeling the more i play the more i think lolsamplesizes. I remember people used to say 10k hands was a decent indicator...

GaryQQQ

I raise!

My ROI since May 2010 in DYMs is 16.9% over 664 games, before that I was a novice player and results were less impressive.

Note for Sharkscope subscribers; after making your filtered search click the statistics tab to get your true total ROI, you'll see it on the right hand side. This is more accurate that the average ROI which can be skewed by a small number of games at a particular buy-in.

Count: 664Av Profit:

£0.39

Av Stake: £2.07Av ROI:

9.4%

Profit:

£259

Ability: 65Active Days: 266Av Entrants: 6Av Games / Day (when playing): 2.5Best 100 Streak Av Profit:

£1.41

Best 500 Streak Av Profit:

£0.54

Total Break Even Days: 0Total Cashes:

£1,795

First Game Date: 08/05/2010 02:21ITM%:

62.3%

Last Game Date: 07/12/2012 02:16Total Losing Days: 106Max Cashing Streak: 14Max Losing Streak: 6Max Winning Streak: 14Most Games / Day: 11PokerStars Tournament Leaderboard Points: 0Av % Field Beaten:

71.4%

Total Rake:

£161

Total Stake: £1,374Total ROI:

16.9%

Turbo Ratio:

0.8%

Total Winning Days: 160Worst 100 Streak Av Profit:

-£0.25

Worst 500 Streak Av Profit:

£0.33