Live - River bluff

Jac35

Decent standard 50/1
Effective stack is me playing 620
Villain is tight thinking player

I raise cut off with A 10 to 8 after 1 limper
Villain calls 8, blinds and limper pass

Flop K J 9
I lead 9, he calls

Turn 6

I lead 25 he mins to 50, i call

Pot £133

River 2

I bet 115 he tanks for around 5 mins

Thoughts?
What is the worst he will call with on river?
After the min on turn, i should be giving up on blank river?
He never has what i'm trying to rep here, with my image i could easily have flopped the straight

BorinLoner

I'm not sure that you're credibly representing a straight on the river. When you're bluffing you want to represent as wide a range of strong hands as possible anyway, so try not to think in terms of repping a single hand.

If you had flopped a straight or set, would you not 3-bet the turn when he gives you action on this board? His min-raise on the turn is unlikely to be weak so if you had the nuts wouldn't you look to maximise your value here and get it in before a danger card hits on the river?

You say he's a tight, thinking player but what range do you give him for min-raising the turn? For most players this is going to be a very strong hand, although I don't think a really good player is going to make this raise-size without alot of history with his opponent.

When the 2 hits on the river, I don't think it's wise to bluff. You'd have to think that he's raising the turn with just one-pair or isn't smart enough to think about your range for calling the turn then leading a blank river. You can never have 22, so this river changes nothing. Assuming he believes you'd 3-bet the turn with any big made hand and wouldn't lead the river with any marginal hand, then I think your bluff is a bit transparent.

If you've taken this line with big hands before, it's a different story. I'm not sure you should take this line with a big hand, though.

Given the action and the tank on the river, I'd guess that he has something like KhQh. He could easily have alot stronger hands but most two-pairs or sets raise on this wet flop, neither they or straights tank the river (unless he subsequently raises) and he may raise the turn with KhQh after picking up more equity in the hand. I wouldn't like the raise on the turn with KhQh but that would be my first guess.

By the way, I'm assuming that the yellow is to indicate a spade. Many players are more experienced in deepstacked, high(ish) stakes cash games than me. Perhaps they'll see things differently.

Jac35

No, I think that's  all pretty accurate actually.

As you say the history was very important here, not actually mine against his actually, but he was very tight.

When the river came I knew it was the worst card in the deck for me to bomb with but spewed anyway.

He tanked with the 2nd nuts!!

I think he was very very close to folding.

Great post Borin

BorinLoner

Spot on...

...apart from my guess that he had KhQh...
...and that he'd raise the flop with a set...
...and that he wouldn't tank the river with that.

To be fair, he must be the biggest rock on Earth: Not 3-betting pre-flop with KK, 620BB effective? Not raising this wet flop with top-set? Tanking the river with top set???

LOL_RAISE

In Response to Re: Live - River bluff:

No, I think that's  all pretty accurate actually. As you say the history was very important here, not actually mine against his actually, but he was very tight. When the river came I knew it was the worst card in the deck for me to bomb with but spewed anyway. He tanked with the 2nd nuts!! I think he was very very close to folding. Great post Borin
Posted by Jac35

yea this happens alot, then you try it again and they still dont fold. they just always tank, and always end up calling. fwiw i think your flop and turn bets are way too small considering how deep you are.

Jac35

I think you're right lolraise on the flop and turn bet sizing.
You've both kind of confirmed what i knew.
I just have to give up on river. Was a little over confident after a long session where i had played ok and made a bit of cash.

Once this guy mins i'm obviously calling for the implied odds but should just be folding any river that misses me.
Although through his play i can't be putting him on kings here the only part i disagree with you Borin is that in my opinion he has to be way stronger than any one pair hand. ( I realise this makes my river bet even more foolish )

He had sat with 150 and didn't look at all comfortable. He doubled up twice where he basically flopped the nuts against other big hands.
My impression was that he was locking up and so with a bit of pressure he may fold against the next biggest stack on the table.
He played it badly keeping me involved in the pot so cheaply but after the min and the blank river, while he may have tanked as lolraise says he's unlikely to ever actually fold.

BorinLoner

In Response to Re: Live - River bluff:

Although through his play i can't be putting him on kings here the only part i disagree with you Borin is that in my opinion he has to be way stronger than any one pair hand. ( I realise this makes my river bet even more foolish ) Posted by Jac35

I'd agree that for raising the turn, he should have better than one pair. However, my logic for concluding that KhQh was most likely is this:

KK, AA and AK would most likely 3-bet pre-flop. On this wet flop, any two-pair or set you would expect to raise. After all, they want to get £620 out of you by the river and they want to get as much money in the middle right now as possible. So when he flats it should be some sort of one-pair hand.

Then the 6h hits on the turn and he raises. The suggestion must be that this 6 has improved his hand somehow and that can only reaistically mean he's picked up a flush-draw. Which hands flat pre-flop, have one-pair on this flop and pick up a draw on the turn? - KhQh.

As I said, I wouldn't like the raise on the turn with that hand but it seemed more likely than the other hands, given the play... Of course, this was before I knew what a ROCK we were talking about. lol