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Good fold or bad fold?
loololollo
Member Posts: 929
I'm really not sure, went with my gut instinct
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Your pre-flop raise is a little bit small. The shortest stack in the hand is the Big Blind with 52BB and whenever we're deepstacked we should stick to the 3x + 1 rule. That is to say that we should size our opening raise as three times the big blind plus one big blind for each limper. So in this hand the raise should be around the 200 mark.
I'm content with the half-pot flop bet sizing. Even though we're against two opponents, we do have the advantage of position and they have both checked to us.
The turn is a problem. We've just made the nuts and been led into, then we min-raise. This min-raise looks super strong regardless of our stack size but here, when we raise to 840, leaving 2145 behind and making a pot of 2100, it looks even stronger. The min-raise here is not believable as a bluff so must always be a big made hand. That's obviously bad because we want to look weak when we're strong to avoid giving good opponents an extra opportunity to get away from the hand.
If we're going to raise this turn I think we should just shove. Our opponent has shown some strength by calling the flop then leading-out on the turn, so they may call all-in here. The alternative is just to call the turn bet and allow our opponent the chance to bet again on the river, rather than risk forcing him to fold his weaker hands on the turn. If we allow a free card to come it could either make a better hand for our opponent, such as a flush, or it could make our opponent afraid to put the rest of his stack in. Even worse, that scare card could come and make us fold, as has happened here. There are arguments to be made for either shoving or calling on the turn but I definitely think the min-raise is a mistake. I would think shoving here is best. It largely depends on what we think of our opponent.
The river is a toughie. We shouldn't be too afraid of straights but flushes are possible. Hands like KcQc, KcJc, QcJc all make sense to get as far as the turn and then to bet/call on the turn and shove the river. Flush draws that didn't pick up a pair or straight draw on the turn probably don't lead there (although it's possible), so that's the likely range of hands that beat us. I'm not sure anyone is getting to the river with nothing so they can't be bluffing with air. Sets and two-pair hands most likely shove the turn after our raise so I suppose that the only hands we can beat that get to the river and then shove for value are hands that are improved by this 9 but aren't a flush. There aren't many hands that fit that description.
I think the only hands that shove this river that we beat are hands such as ThXh that have got this far with the pair of tens and picked up the draw on the turn but now think that they have to turn their hand into a bluff. They'd be shoving a club to represent the flush, thinking they can get you to fold a Jack or better. That's pretty unlikely though and only a really aggressive, creative player is ever going to try it.
So I think the fold on the river is probably a good one. I definitely prefer shoving all-in on the turn, though.
In future it would be helpful for you to include any reads you have on your opponent. For example, if you describe your opponent as being super-aggressive and clever, the advice would be very different to the advice you'd get against a very weak, passive opponent.