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tough spot in satellite?

liamboi11liamboi11 Member Posts: 2,141
edited December 2012 in The Poker Clinic
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalanceBodie66Small blind 1175.001175.000.00liamboi11Big blind 4000.005175.0011210.00 Your hole cards99   SHIRLEY457Fold    poker69All-in 12780.0017955.000.00biiiigbuxFold    BAAAAACCCAFold    liamboi11Fold    poker69Unmatched bet 8780.009175.008780.00Bodie66ShowK7   poker69Show10A   Flop  932   Turn  9   River  K   Bodie66WinTwo Pairs, Kings and 9s3525.00 3525.00poker69WinPair of 9s5650.00 14430.00
in the long run is this the fight fold obvisiously I smacked this time if a call but i`m thinking is the fold correct long term ?
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Comments

  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited December 2012
    How many seats?
    How far from the bubble?
    What are the other chip stacks?
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  • liamboi11liamboi11 Member Posts: 2,141
    edited December 2012
    In Response to Re: tough spot in satellite?:
    How many seats? How far from the bubble? What are the other chip stacks?
    Posted by BorinLoner
    sorry forgot to add this info

    top 4 get seat 5th gets £19.20
    this is the bubble 6 left
    we are all around 10-15k apart from the shorty which has 1.2k who is already forced allin in the sb when im the bb
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited December 2012
    Yeah I'd say it's a fold on the bubble of a satellite. Obviously if either you or the non-shorty win then you're not the stone cold bubble but I assume you want the seat and not the cash. You'd be calling off your tourney life when you're very likely up against 2 overs (or better) and if all stacks are even, you don't need to be the one taking flips yet when it's the bubble (especially as the you've just paid your BB)
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  • BigHawk89BigHawk89 Member Posts: 627
    edited December 2012
    Can't believe you folded your obviously gonna hit top set then turn quads :)
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited December 2012
    stacks dictate you should call, you have nines )

    what you going to do with 2.5 bb once the bubble goes just for the money, forget the money go for the seat
    you going to find yourself in worse equity spots with 2.5bb
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  • Lambert180Lambert180 Member Posts: 12,197
    edited December 2012
    I know he's got 2.5bb which sucks, but so has everyone else according to OP so they're all in the same boat and he's just paid his BB so has the upperhand on most of them.
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  • liamboi11liamboi11 Member Posts: 2,141
    edited December 2012
    the reason I posted this I usually do ok in satellites but last 2 days dunno how many times I have been in bubble or 2 away from gettin seat and blown up or lost race/bad beat etc and it is really frustrating lol.

    but yeah thats what I was thinking rancid I`m goin to end up getting my chips in with a far worse hand l8rs if the shorty survives which he did.

    only if the guy with a10 folds and hopes I knock out shorty which I think a lot of ppl fold in that spot whether its right or wrong.Also the guy with a10 also made me bubble today also me shovin in the sb into his bb wae ak vs his a7 he had me covered for 600 chips every1 else similar stacks apart from 1 big stack and binks a seven just don`t run good in mtts/satellites or maybe I just suck lol.

    aw well rant over thanks for replies
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  • BorinLonerBorinLoner Member Posts: 3,863
    edited December 2012

    It would be nice if you could give exact stacks, since the difference between 10k and 15k is 50% and more than a full big blind when the average stack is between 3BB and 4BB. Also, what's the value of the seat? Is it alot more than the £19?

    To be honest, none of that really matters, lol. It's a straightforward fold. The only question you need to ask is "Am I more likely to make the money by folding than by calling?". Let's assume that there are as many overpairs as underpairs in the shover's range (which there roughly are) and that the other hands are all overcards (which they won't necessarily be but never mind) then the chances of you cashing by calling are roughly 50/50.

    If you fold, the chances of you cashing are greater than 50/50 as you'll be similarly stacked to many of the other players and only one of them needs to go out before you. You're also more than 50/50 to make the seats. So folding is correct.

    Don't worry too much about your stack size as long as you're not the shortest stack. You may or may not need to win the blinds before the bubble bursts (if the shorty wins this hand) but you're much more likely to win the seat by being the shover with two random cards than you are by calling with 99. Just make sure you shove into people that understand that they can fold.

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  • profman15profman15 Member Posts: 1,808
    edited December 2012
    Hi L

    Could you put the exact stack sizes in the post and the worth of the seat as this can be solved using bubble factor theory with icm considerations though you do need to have an assessment of poker69's pushing range. Mind you the answer may change from call to fold if the pushing range is varied. I'm just doing some study of it at the moment but it's a complicated business at times.
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  • rancidrancid Member Posts: 5,945
    edited December 2012
    Not sure if you fold you have a greater chance of getting a seat
    Deffo a greater chance of cashing if you fold but don't think so getting a seat, but I can't be asked to do the math

    everyone is on 3-4 bb with the blinds going through the other players - everyone apart from you is pretty equal
    no one has any fold equity

    suppose you could fold and hope two clash before it comes round to you, if no one clashes then it comes to you in the sb and now you have 2bb (

    fold or call it's pretty marginal

    for me I just wouldn't care and love seeing nines

    suppose the biggest factor is how long is left on the clock for this blind level,  if the next orbit the blinds go up then it beocmes the easiest fold in the world

    how far do we push it and still fold, 10's,J's,Q's - suppose we going to be saying only call with AA




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