Satellite Advice

CIM72

I qualified for the UKOPS Main event as a result of being the bystander in the following hand.

However, I have bubbled satellites on numerous ocassions by losing with AK against a pocket pair and I have often wondered whether I should be going all in or calling with AK in this sort of position.

I have always thought that you really aren't going to get a better spot to get all in and I would have played AK in exactly this way.  Is this the correct line of thought or should you consider folding AK in this sort of position.

Any thoughts or comments would be appreciated as I would like to increase the percentage of satellites that I qualify. 


Hand History #603685118 (15:33 30/12/2012)

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
bromley04	Small blind		600.00	600.00	26140.00
CIM72	Big blind		1200.00	1800.00	20905.00
	Your hole cards	6 Q
Magicalman	Raise		6000.00	7800.00	19155.00
bromley04	All-in		26140.00	33940.00	0.00
CIM72	Fold
Magicalman	All-in		19155.00	53095.00	0.00
bromley04	Unmatched bet		1585.00	51510.00	1585.00
bromley04	Show	J J
Magicalman	Show	K A
Flop
		3 3 3
Turn
		2
River
		2
bromley04	Win	Full House, 3s and Jacks	51510.00

Lambert180

Probably snap fold with AK to that raise size (villaint aint folding to a shove ever).

SJspanky1

3 handed playing for 2 spots?

I'm getting it in with AK all day long.

What you gonna do otherwise, get blinded out while we wait for QQ,KK or AA??

Lambert180

Sigh, I didn't even see this was 3handed lol...

Yeah 3way there's nothing you can do but jam over his open.

SJspanky1

Assumed you'd misread it Paul.

Even you ain't THAT tight......

profman15

Hi c

I take it that there are 3 left with 2 to get seats. Funnily enough the stack sizes should be considered if one player had a micro stack. lAlso the prize worths for third compared to 1st and 2nd. If all the stack sizes are fairly even then AK has a an acceptable equity versus an opponents pushing range 3 hdd as it is such a strong hand 3 hdd.
 Its nothing to do with pot odds at this stage and considers tournament odds which is defined as pot odds divided by the bubble factor. Try looking at the bubble factor theories in Kill Everyone. It's complicated at times but there are apps you can get and it will give you a feel for when to call a push or shove all-in. It's a mathematical approach to an emotional problem. Hope this is of some help but i've still to solve these types of problems for a variety of hands, stack sizes and types of T's! Cheers. 

PS if you put all the info...Stacks and prizes then i'll try to do the mathematical calculation if you want....(saves me losing money playing! Ha)

jonjo75

Yeah this is a totally different situation to a big sat with multiple seats where IMO a fold would be the right play on the bubble. You all have between 15 and 22 bbs so I definately would not be folding AK.

larry1959

nearing the bubble and your position in the rankings, should play a part in your thought process. if you are within 5 players inside the qualifying number, then I would fold unless I am sat with AA or KK.. most times you will be up against a smaller pair or AK...AQ and have a better chance of eliminating your opponent. I have seen AK busted time and time again in these positions, and chip leaders losing half their stack and end up battling for a qualifying place..some even going out completely after trying to regain there chips with aggressive play. The choice at the end of the day is yours, work out if you can call an all in and still have enough chips left to qualify with reasonable comfort. It is more about strategy near the end and getting that qualifying place, it doesn't matter if you qualify in first place or last..the point is to qualify