Do I shove with pocket aces on the bubble in a satelitte?

wilco40

Top 10 qualified with 11th getting £19.80. I was sitting in 8th out of 12 I think. Could I have played this better as it was a satellite or was I just plain unlucky?

Player	Action	Cards	Amount	Pot	Balance
wilco40	Small blind		1500.00	1500.00	5550.00
blazer617	Big blind		3000.00	4500.00	21558.74
	Your hole cards	A A
jamie0007t	Fold
molly522	Call		3000.00	7500.00	16608.13
freddiek12	Fold
TROGG463	Fold
wilco40	All-in		5550.00	13050.00	0.00
blazer617	Fold
molly522	Call		4050.00	17100.00	12558.13
wilco40	Show	A A
molly522	Show	9 K
Flop
		9 7 2
Turn
		4
River
		K
molly522	Win	Two Pairs, Kings and 9s	17100.00		29658.13

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BorinLoner

It depends to a great extent on the stack sizes of all the other players in the tournament. If you're the shortest stack then this is an easy all-in. You have no chance of winning the hand without a showdown but you're 80% at least to win it so be happy.

If there are other players shorter-stacked than you, then this can be a fold. You have to judge your chance of winning this hand against the chance of you winning the money/seat if you fold. So if three or four players are sat on just 1BB, you're probably more likely to get to the money if you fold than if you shove.

If you can tell us the stack sizes of the other eleven players, we can give you a better answer. It's never going to be absolutely terrible to put your last 2BB in with AA, though. lol

By the way, what's the difference between the cash consolation and the value of the seat?

wilco40

I was lying 8th out of the 12 left.  Top stack 24k and I had 7-8K I think.  Lowest stack was around 3-4k. The value of the seat was £33 (it was the £10K BH tonight).  I folded QQ a couple of hands before as I had 2 big stacks playing after me and didnt want to risk it. Just couldnt put AA down :-(

Lambert180

Borin has covered everything of value in this so Ill just say...

Sigh at people limping K9 from like a 7xBB stack on the bubble of a satellite lol. If he hadnt made such a terrible open, he wouldnt have had to call

JSTFLIPPIN

Hmm, tricky spot tbh lol

On any other site I would shove them n counting how many chips I'll be up, but on sky I think I would prob fold tbh as every hand seems 50/50

MattBates

In Response to Re: Do I shove with pocket aces on the bubble in a satelitte?:

Borin has covered everything of value in this so Ill just say... Sigh at people limping K9 from like a 7xBB stack on the bubble of a satellite lol. If he hadnt made such a terrible open, he wouldnt have had to call
Posted by Lambert180

BUT IT WAS SSSSSSOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTEEEEEEEEEEEDDDDDDDDDDDDDD

Agree with what borin/lambert said.

jonjo75

In this situation you must have both tables open to see what is going on. If the short stack is on the bb or clolse to it on the other table with with a stack of 4400 and the blinds are 3000/1500 then I fold .As Boring said it is totally dependant on other stack sizes and the fact you are in the sb is to your advantage as you have 4 hands to go through and hpefully see someone else go out before you have to pay the bb.

wilco40

In Response to Re: Do I shove with pocket aces on the bubble in a satelitte?:

In this situation you must have both tables open to see what is going on. If the short stack is on the bb or clolse to it on the other table with with a stack of 4400 and the blinds are 3000/1500 then I fold .As Boring said it is totally dependant on other stack sizes and the fact you are in the sb is to your advantage as you have 4 hands to go through and hpefully see someone else go out before you have to pay the bb.
Posted by jonjo75

Deep down I knew it was still a risk as I wanted to shove but didnt want any callers.  I thought the villian that called initially for 3000 might call me again but hoped my AA would hold strong.  As said in an earlier post I was disciplined and folded QQ a few hands before as didnt want to get called by someone with an Ace or King and risk getting bombed out. 

Smitalos

In Response to Re: Do I shove with pocket aces on the bubble in a satelitte?:

It depends to a great extent on the stack sizes of all the other players in the tournament. If you're the shortest stack then this is an easy all-in. You have no chance of winning the hand without a showdown but you're 80% at least to win it so be happy. If there are other players shorter-stacked than you, then this can be a fold. You have to judge your chance of winning this hand against the chance of you winning the money/seat if you fold. So if three or four players are sat on just 1BB, you're probably more likely to get to the money if you fold than if you shove. If you can tell us the stack sizes of the other eleven players, we can give you a better answer. It's never going to be absolutely terrible to put your last 2BB in with AA, though. lol By the way, what's the difference between the cash consolation and the value of the seat?
Posted by BorinLoner

This.

It basically boils down to simple maths. Seeing as the guy is never folding to your shove, and you're going to be around an 80% favourite when you get your money in...

Do you think your chances of cashing in the satellite with your short stack if you fold are greater than 80%, or lower?

I personally fold here, thinking there's an 80%+ chance that someone busts before I do, just letting the blinds go through me, as I bleed down to 0 chips.

Can't blame OP for shoving though. ul gg.

Unknown

If the other 3k-4k stack is about to go through both the blinds, its a close fold, but id rather get my money in now with AA and pray for a hold to get a stack that can survive 4 orbits, instead of a stack that can surive 1 orbit. Im probably wrong though, but I know it depends alot on the other table (which you should have open!)

wilco40

Cheers for the comments guys.  First time I have posted one of my hands on here.  Think the correct call was to fold just wish I hadnt been dealt aces :-)

beaneh

look at your decision process that let you get down to 2bb.....

profman15

Hi wilco

Most of the detail has been put by BL but why don't you get the app that does the maths for you by examining the the stack sizes in conjunction with the prizes. By the way the cash prize for just missing should be taken into account too. It will be too complicated to use during the game but afterwards will give you an idea for later games. You will however have to make an assumption about what range the villain would call with. However in this case where there is a frankly naive limp you could assme he will call most of the time. Funny, i'd be thinking he had a premier pr so you would be 80% favourite.
There are still some cases where the maths will tell you to fold though. This is down to maths ( not simple by the way considering the time involved) not 'guessing' whether you are 80% certain to get through which means nothing really as how do you compare  80 to 70 to 60? This is one of the few situations where a mathematical yea/no can be gven but all the info is needed and an assumption will be made too. Consequently, as happened here, you missed out to a poor call.

loololollo

no way let dat bubble burst on sats