CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD

BELL_POKER

Hi all,

only 39 days to go to the greatest show on turf so please everybody get cracking with antepost fancies in the build up to the festival itself and well see over the decisive 4 days in mid March who got what brilliantly right and what painstakingly wrong.

good luck all and win or lose (or break even) enjoy the weeks racing and enjoy the build up as well!!!

its going to be awesome as always

BELL_POKER

a few of my fancies as it stands just to get the ball rolling are;

SUPREME NOVICE      MY TENT OR YOURS 10/1
CHAMPION HURDLE   GRANDOUET  7/1
CENTENARY NOVICE  CARLITO BRIGANTE 12/1 (MAY GET IN LIGHTLY AND TOP COURSE FORM)
NEPTUNE NOVICE      PONT ALEXANDRE 7/2  AND THEN PONT ALEXANDRE / THE NEW ONE STRAIGHT F/C ON DAY
JEWSON NOVICE       AUPCHARLIE CURRENTLY 8/1 (BUT WANT MULLINS TO GIVE HIM CHANCE IN THE RSA)
PERTEMPS      KNOCK A HAND 33/1 (DISSAPPOINTED OVER FENCES BUT INTERESTING ON OLD HURDLES FORM)
WORLD HURDLE       SMAD PLACE 20/1
ALBERT BARTLETT     OUR VINNIE  16/1
GOLD CUP               BOBS WORTH 7/2 F NOW BUT WILL BE LIKELY PRICE IF NOT A TAD BIGGER ON DAY
MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONALS   KATKEAU  14/1

Out of all of the above the main value lies in Katkeau, given the fact trainer will target the race named in his Father's honour. Can see this going off silly prices on the day, 5/2 or something of that ilk. I wait for most of the handicap weights to be published beofre whittling them down on stats etc but the 3 above handicaps would be my idea of what id be backing regardless so best to get the value early on. 

Carlito is former Coral cup winner over the smaller obstacles , he was 'well in' for that and sense same is going to happen here, and has won a course chase this season. 

With cape tribulation the latest example, horses whove given chasing a go have a recent decent record in coming back and landing the Pertemps Final over hurdles and itll be interesting to see Knock a Hand do so , all he did was improve last season and racked up a series of consecutive wins and is game, dissappointed over fences thus far so should be given his chance to line up in this

Katkeau travelled like an absolute dream in the fixed brush hurdle on the Hennessey card before suddenly going out like a light, put this memory to 'good use' when having a decent bet at 9/4 on Boxing day in Kemptons finale only for him to do the exact same thing!!!
 
Shouldnt have been a ground problem as has form back in his native france on the surface so hoping a drop back is what the doctor ordered, Im actually very excited about this horse but deep down fear a case of once bitten twice shy third time ur havin a laugh but with no doubts that the money will come large for him Im certainly willing to chance my arm at what could look a HUGE price in a few fridays time

the 'good irish thing of the week' is a hurdler hailing from the mullins yard but it will be Pont Alexandre and not the former champion hurdler Hurrican Fly taking all the plaudits
 
i really like the new one as a top prospect and can see these 2 coming well clear of the rest and wouldnt even entertain the thought of taking them on with those at healthier prices, think this markets  been priced up absoultely spot on and theyre the 2 to concentrate on imo 
 
our vinnie and smad place should both fair better in their respective 3m races on the forecast better ground if it ever does come,
bobs worth will be unbelivably tough to pass if getting head in front though no real value, just owes me nothing after hennesey and owes me nothing so sticking with him,
grandouet will hopefully get his chance to prove his credentials tihs weekend

while Aupcharlie really really impressed me with his jumping on Lexus day when just being collared by stablemate and short fav on the line but on spring ground rather than the very heavy encountered that day will be even better again

shuv

Supreme Novice Hurdle - Minsk & Waheeb  @ 40/1 & 20/1

Arkle Chase - Captain Conan & Arvika Ligeonniere @ 12/1 & 10/1

Champion Hurdle - Cinders And Ashes 16/1

RSA Chase - Back In Focus  12/1

Ryanair Chase - Grand Crus & Champion Court @ 20/1 & 10/1

World Hurdle - Smad Place & Monksland @ 20/1 & 7/1

Gold Cup - Sir Des Champs & Long Run @ 5/1 & 7/1

chopos180

Champion Hurdle -- Hurricane Fly 9/2 Ante Post

andybuck

world hurdle  reve de sivola 16 to1..
gold cup  hunt ball 66 to1,

both ew,

joesman1

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD:

a few of my fancies as it stands just to get the ball rolling are; SUPREME NOVICE      MY TENT OR YOURS 10/1 CHAMPION HURDLE   GRANDOUET  7/1 CENTENARY NOVICE  CARLITO BRIGANTE 12/1 (MAY GET IN LIGHTLY AND TOP COURSE FORM) NEPTUNE NOVICE      PONT ALEXANDRE 7/2  AND THEN PONT ALEXANDRE / THE NEW ONE STRAIGHT F/C ON DAY JEWSON NOVICE       AUPCHARLIE CURRENTLY 8/1 (BUT WANT MULLINS TO GIVE HIM CHANCE IN THE RSA) PERTEMPS      KNOCK A HAND 33/1 (DISSAPPOINTED OVER FENCES BUT INTERESTING ON OLD HURDLES FORM) WORLD HURDLE       SMAD PLACE 20/1 ALBERT BARTLETT     OUR VINNIE  16/1 GOLD CUP               BOBS WORTH 7/2 F NOW BUT WILL BE LIKELY PRICE IF NOT A TAD BIGGER ON DAY MARTIN PIPE CONDITIONALS   KATKEAU  14/1 Out of all of the above the main value lies in Katkeau, given the fact trainer will target the race named in his Father's honour. Can see this going off silly prices on the day, 5/2 or something of that ilk. I wait for most of the handicap weights to be published beofre whittling them down on stats etc but the 3 above handicaps would be my idea of what id be backing regardless so best to get the value early on.  Carlito is former Coral cup winner over the smaller obstacles , he was 'well in' for that and sense same is going to happen here, and has won a course chase this season.  With cape tribulation the latest example, horses whove given chasing a go have a recent decent record in coming back and landing the Pertemps Final over hurdles and itll be interesting to see Knock a Hand do so , all he did was improve last season and racked up a series of consecutive wins and is game, dissappointed over fences thus far so should be given his chance to line up in this Katkeau travelled like an absolute dream in the fixed brush hurdle on the Hennessey card before suddenly going out like a light, put this memory to 'good use' when having a decent bet at 9/4 on Boxing day in Kemptons finale only for him to do the exact same thing!!!   Shouldnt have been a ground problem as has form back in his native france on the surface so hoping a drop back is what the doctor ordered, Im actually very excited about this horse but deep down fear a case of once bitten twice shy third time ur havin a laugh but with no doubts that the money will come large for him Im certainly willing to chance my arm at what could look a HUGE price in a few fridays time the 'good irish thing of the week' is a hurdler hailing from the mullins yard but it will be Pont Alexandre and not the former champion hurdler Hurrican Fly taking all the plaudits   i really like the new one as a top prospect and can see these 2 coming well clear of the rest and wouldnt even entertain the thought of taking them on with those at healthier prices, think this markets  been priced up absoultely spot on and theyre the 2 to concentrate on imo    our vinnie and smad place should both fair better in their respective 3m races on the forecast better ground if it ever does come, bobs worth will be unbelivably tough to pass if getting head in front though no real value, just owes me nothing after hennesey and owes me nothing so sticking with him, grandouet will hopefully get his chance to prove his credentials tihs weekend while Aupcharlie really really impressed me with his jumping on Lexus day when just being collared by stablemate and short fav on the line but on spring ground rather than the very heavy encountered that day will be even better again
Posted by BELL_POKER

Bella Bella Bella........ You are 4/6 weeks behind me on this one. Ask Father V..... As soon as it landed in this country and ran in Haydocks Fixed Brush Final thingy I earmarked it for Cheltenham. They are deliberately running it half fit, and in extreme conditions, to get its mark down a bit. It's been tanking to 2/3 out in its races, then gently fading. It will turn up at Cheltenahm, fully fit, on better going, over a slighlty shorter trip..... Then BOOM!!!!!

joesman1

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD:

world hurdle  reve de sivola 16 to1.. gold cup  hunt ball 66 to1, both ew,
Posted by andybuck

Nice position on Reve Andy, now 6's..... Bad news on Hunt Ball though.... see today's Racing Post. 

vaigret

joesman is the man get on Katkeau now, Bell, joe and me cannot all be wrong

joesman1

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD:

joesman is the man get on Katkeau now, Bell, joe and me cannot all be wrong
Posted by vaigret

Lol.... Pi@@ taking by the Brotherhood is just not cricket Father V!!!

I'm getting excited re On His Own now. I'm guessing it will hit the track as soon as its allocated its 148 rating. Be fab if Tiday Bay runs. Could mean it running off 10st 5ish. 

vaigret

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD:

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD : Lol.... Pi@@ taking by the Brotherhood is just not cricket Father V!!! I'm getting excited re On His Own now. I'm guessing it will hit the track as soon as its allocated its 148 rating. Be fab if Tiday Bay runs. Could mean it running off 10st 5ish. 
Posted by joesman1

Not guilty honestly but still think Prince De Buecherne will be Mullins top horse for GN

BELL_POKER

nice prices on Reve who has never finished outside of top 2 over hurdles if i remember correctly and is now top of the market. possibility of OW reversing last weeks Cleeve hurdle form and my fancy smad place reversing the form from the Long Walk once both have better ground and then add another 7 or 8 into the mix at least at what looks a very tricky puzzle in my eyes but a very handy 16/1 voucher to have indeed. 

re katkeau, glad theres other confidence behind it, fact that i get 14's on a possible 3/1 or shorter shot means not a **** if he doesnt do the business as im not one to back then aly ill just let it run. will have to include in various perms while theres still alot of juice in the price. 

havent had too much of a look at  the GN but one who caught the eye before christmas and has impressed me the most was JOIN TOGETHER, though from a superstitious perspective im not sure how likely Mr Nicholls will win the great race 2 years on the trot after a long run of defeats

and wouldnt it just be bloo dy typcial if your welsh national fancy T43 came good in this instead! which is certainly possible. i think if ON HIS OWN  jumps around your looking place money at the very very least. easier said than done but at the likely weight youve eluded to it would be hard to see him not finishing in the frame

 

day4eire76

Hi Guys,

A horse which might be of intrest is Moyle Park.He won at the Christmas meeting at leopardstown.Was well backed from 20s into 10s on the day.I had a nice win that day at the races.The second has since won.He was recently bought by Willie Mullins for 250k, before the 2nd had won.If going to Cheltenham will be for the Champion bumper.

andybuck

yes hunt ball shame,i really dont like backing ante post and only do it to smallish stakes,,backed reve de sivola at silly prices for world hurdle last 2 years.

andybuck

theres another horse i follow have put it up on here before WON IN THE DARK,i havent seen much of it this year bell might enlighten us,,always runs well at aintree will be silly prices for the aintree hurdle ,going well last year when brought down,,had it in 2 doubles one with out big bucks market and ew double with the 66to1 winner i tipped on here think it would have been placed for a healthy profit,,good ground dependant

joesman1

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD:

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD : Not guilty honestly but still think Prince De Buecherne will be Mullins top horse for GN
Posted by vaigret

Here's my theory on this Father V. I think you are wrong, because AFTER the weights for last years race were announced, your horse went and won The Bobby Jo Chase. As a result, it was over 10ib's 'well in' at the weights. Obv this year that win will be taken into account. 

THEROCK573

RIP darlan, sure to be in and around the money for the champion hurdle!!!

THEROCK573

anyone got a theory on why grands crus has been so dissapointing this year, awesome juvenile last year, even had this years gold cup fav bobs worth behind, whats gone wrong????

BELL_POKER

In Response to Re: CHELTENHAM FESTIVAL 2013 THREAD:

RIP darlan, sure to be in and around the money for the champion hurdle!!!
Posted by THEROCK573

+ 1 to this, very sad news . was actually trying to nip out of work to watch but never got the chance, pretty glad now to be honest given the tragic end, apparently was galloping all over the champ as well

BELL_POKER

WON IN THE DARK tops the weights tomorrow in irelands big handicap hurdle of the day 350. will no doubt use the exercise as a spin towards fitness on unsuitable ground before seemingly another tilt towards the 3 miler at aintree as has become the norm. given previous seasons **** probs have this, then at least anther one if not 2, all on Irish soil before making the trip to liverpool

knock a hand also out tomorrow at newbury, won this last year on the rearranged card, a few pointers to be taken perhaps on chances in the pertemps, i actually am leaning towards Sivola de Sivola in this, but like my big betfair hurdle fancy Claret Cloak id be hoping for the ground to come up on the better side of soft

BELL_POKER

Under an hour to go til super Saturday commences, very excited! Not only will the gold cup market be shaken up around3.30 pm but also the triumph hurdle market.

Paul Nichols unleashes lac Fontana In the opener at Newbury and expect this one to win and then join rolling star at te head of the market. Same colours as stablemate zarkandar and he too first saw a British racecourse in February I've nibbled the 16/1 e/w.

 but we're not done there and we could see our Conors price tumble if he can cause a minor surprise of sorts against Mullins ' pair onthe Irish card. 4/1 looks good price on desse Hughes' 4 yr old to remain unbeaten over timber. 

BELL_POKER

in regards to the irish hennesy later on the card what a mouthwatering prospect this is.

if they get flemenstar to bowl along in front SDC's jumping will really be put to the fore. think flemenstar will win this with SDC coming ever closer to the line then the bookie chappies will overreact by slashing Peter Caseys stable star to 5/1 for marches showpiece and SDC being lengthend by a point or 2 max before all the money comes in to keep him 5/1 antepost with his supporters claiming the extra 2f at Prestbury park will work in his favour. and they probably will be right!! silvinaco conti can also lay his claims further with more impressive jumping in the denman chase. though he wouldnt be for me round Cheltenham imo