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Variance - let's have an adult discussion
Enut
Member Posts: 3,317
in Poker Chat
Well there have been a lot of posts recently about variance, often by people who don’t know they are talking about variance, but think that Sky is rigged against them. Well I thought I would do my own bit of research.
Now I am, at best, an average player and as well as lacking ability I am hampered by having to play in front of the TV sharing the sofa with my other half and any number of cats, all of who seem to have more right to sofa room than I do. I also rarely play late into the night for the sake of family harmony, so most sessions are relatively short evening ones. I also normally play a maximum of only 5 tables and often mix holdem MTTS with a few PLO8 MTTs and DYMs, as you can see I am not exactly helping myself with my poker set up and that means it has taken quite some time to amass these stats.
On the plus side poker makes no difference to me financially and I only ever play at low stakes and well within my bankroll. It does however ‘do my head in’ at times.
Anyway back on topic, a few months ago I decided that rather than keep thinking I was unlucky/running badly I would actually track some hands manually. In order to lessen the chances of my bad run being due to bad play (I suspect most of it is by the way). I just made a note of EVERY all in pre hand I have played in Holdem MTTs since mid October 2019, as thereis no way these stats can be influenced by how badly I may have played the hand.
The results for the 2 player all in pre hands are shown in the next post, and having just reached 500 AIP 2 player hands I though this would be a good time to look at the results.
For those of you that can’t be bothered to read the next post it shows that it is perfectly possible to run very, very poorly in some situations (in my case pocket pairs v pocket pairs), for a period of MONTHS.
I would expect that for low volume players that run bad could extend to years, what do you think?
Obviously this makes no allowance for the fact that I could be running brilliantly when having to play down the streets (I’m not) or the fact that I could be a brilliant player down the streets (I’m not), but it is a fact that it is pretty difficult to win consistently at MTTs when you aren’t winning your fair share of ‘flips’, or more importantly when you get your chips in miles ahead.
I have given a rough approximation of the odds for each scenario and matched each all in pre with it’s reverse fixture for a bit of comparison and my comments on each match up.
For those that have trouble coping with the rough times at poker what are your best tips?
Now I am, at best, an average player and as well as lacking ability I am hampered by having to play in front of the TV sharing the sofa with my other half and any number of cats, all of who seem to have more right to sofa room than I do. I also rarely play late into the night for the sake of family harmony, so most sessions are relatively short evening ones. I also normally play a maximum of only 5 tables and often mix holdem MTTS with a few PLO8 MTTs and DYMs, as you can see I am not exactly helping myself with my poker set up and that means it has taken quite some time to amass these stats.
On the plus side poker makes no difference to me financially and I only ever play at low stakes and well within my bankroll. It does however ‘do my head in’ at times.
Anyway back on topic, a few months ago I decided that rather than keep thinking I was unlucky/running badly I would actually track some hands manually. In order to lessen the chances of my bad run being due to bad play (I suspect most of it is by the way). I just made a note of EVERY all in pre hand I have played in Holdem MTTs since mid October 2019, as thereis no way these stats can be influenced by how badly I may have played the hand.
The results for the 2 player all in pre hands are shown in the next post, and having just reached 500 AIP 2 player hands I though this would be a good time to look at the results.
For those of you that can’t be bothered to read the next post it shows that it is perfectly possible to run very, very poorly in some situations (in my case pocket pairs v pocket pairs), for a period of MONTHS.
I would expect that for low volume players that run bad could extend to years, what do you think?
Obviously this makes no allowance for the fact that I could be running brilliantly when having to play down the streets (I’m not) or the fact that I could be a brilliant player down the streets (I’m not), but it is a fact that it is pretty difficult to win consistently at MTTs when you aren’t winning your fair share of ‘flips’, or more importantly when you get your chips in miles ahead.
I have given a rough approximation of the odds for each scenario and matched each all in pre with it’s reverse fixture for a bit of comparison and my comments on each match up.
For those that have trouble coping with the rough times at poker what are your best tips?
Comments
Pocket pair v overcards (sample size 58) win rate 56.9% (expected win rate 55%)
Overcards v pocket pairs (sample size 62) win rate 43.5% (expected win rate 45%)
Pocket pairs are normally a slight favorite against overcards so these results are much as expected.
Overpair v underpair (sample size 35) win rate 57.1% (expected win rate 80%)
Underpair v overpair (sample size 17) win rate 0%! (expected win rate 20%)
These are horrid stats, you should win approximately 80% of the hands with pair over pair AIP and I won just over 50%, even worse is the underpair stat. I haven’t won any out of 17 hands, now I know that I should only win about 20% but I haven’t won a single one since Mid October!
Dominating hand v dominated hand (sample size 58) win rate 77.6% (expected 70%)
Dominated hand v dominating hand (sample size 39) win rate 23.1% (Expected 30%)
Now this surprises me as I expected to run badly here as I dread it every time my opponent turns over a dominated hand however I am a little over ev here as I should win about 70%. Interestingly it is balanced out by running slightly below ev when dominated.
Pocket pair v one overcard (sample size 40) win rate 65% (expected rate 70%)
One overcard v pocket pair (sample size 24) win rate 25% (expected rate 30%)
So a little bit below ev on both of these.
2 overcards v 2 undercards (sample size 19) win rate 68.4% (expected rate 62%)
2 undercards v 2 overcards (sample size 5) win rate 60% (expected rate 38%)
Running above ev here but an extremely small sample size in the undercard v overcards so winning 3 wins out of 5 in that match up skews the figures a bit.
1st and 3rd cards against 2nd and 4th (AQ v KJ etc) (sample size 20) win rate 50% (expected rate 60%)
2nd and 4th against 1st and 3rd (sample size 13) win rate 15.4% (expected rate 40%)
Quite a way behind expected wins here, but sample sizes not huge.
1st and 4th against 2nd and 3rd (sample size 37) win rate 67.6% (expected rate 58%)
2nd and 3rd against 1st and 4th (sample size 17) win rate 23.5% (expected rate 42%)
Slightly ahead on the first match up but quite a way behind on the reverse fixture
Pocket Pair v dominated hand (AA v A6 etc) (sample size 13) win rate 92.3% (expected 86%)
Dominated hand v pocket pair (sample pair 8) win rate 12.5% (expected 14%)
Not too far off expected given the small sample size
Pocket pair v undercards (sample size 10) win rate 90% (expected rate 82%)
Undercards v pocket pair (sample size 4) win rate 25% (expected rate 18%)
Tied Pre (sample size 4) All tied
Also (for those of you that have added up the total number and found it 11 short there were 11 ties at the river, these were mostly hands like A3 v A2 etc which are technically dominating but result in a high percentage of ties)
If anyone reads it and then replies they should be sainted.
The 0% win from 17 trials of underpair vs overpair will be well within range if the long term expectation is 20% and the fact that it’s taken since October to get to 17 trials is not relevant - you make this very point when you suggest strings of results will last longer in time for lower volume players.
If you want to look at this you’ll want to calculate the probability distribution function then assess the likelihood of being closer or further from mean given the sample.
Crunched those numbers, cos I like Maths (sad, I know)
I appreciate that some of your percentages are slightly out, but they are probably accurate to within 3%.
If we look at your figures, you have documented winning 237 all-in hands. On my reckoning of the figures you have given, on average you would have won 251 of them-roughly an extra 6%. That is going to be well within likely variance. Biggest minus was -8 hands on overpairs, biggest plus on dominating hands at plus 4.4 hands.
That is before making any allowances for the variation in pot odds.
There are only 3 tricks to variance.
1. The more hands you play, the less variance is likely to play a part (at least in %age terms)
2. Try not to tilt on the bad days-that is more important than perceived run-bad or run-good
3. If you don't think you can bring your A game, don't play that day if possible
Good luck
Phil
Adults are talking.
Good tips too.
Certainly over the short term it's the timing of those run good/run bad moments that can make all the difference.
Quick question, what if you don't have an A game?
I'm sure I have told (bored) a lot of people with this over the years, but let me give 2 hands that show variance at its best/worst.
In the first, 13 left in a $300k tournament. Me-AK, opponent AQ, flop QQQ. I have always been self-funding, so that has always hurt.
2nd one. Bubble of WSOP Main. Me all-in with QQ, called by A4 hh. 2 hearts on the flop, but blank turn and river.
If I had won the 1st (which was for 75% of ALL the chips) I would have likely played at a much higher level. Who knows-could have been a contender, could have fallen flat on my face.
If I had lost the 2nd, I doubt I would be playing today. Variance indeed.
Everyone has an A game. Some people's A games might be better, some might be evolving (everyone's should be), but we all know the feeling of just clicking buttons at some point. When everybody wins less/loses more compared to their A game.
Interested in your comment about if you lost the second you wouldn't be playing today. Would that have been a bank roll thing or a psychological thing? Obviously you don't need to expand if you don't want to.
I did have one evening when I decided to watch the last couple of hours of the main event. Specifically to watch how one of the best players on the site played the later stages. The player is not important but I made a few notes -
His A7 beats AQ AIP to get to the final table then
His AQ beats AA AIP
He does lose JJ to QQ AIP then
His A7 beats KK Heads Up
His KJ beats AQ
Finally he takes it down with A2 beating AK AIP
I think he got in behind (massively on one occasion) 4 times for his tourney life and won all 4 (obviously). Watching the HU I just felt sorry for his opp, no way was he winning that tourney!
My equivalent to that in the last few months was running pretty well at the start of a turbo freeroll for ME seats, I won 4/4 races and 2 hands when dominated, then I went completely card dead and finally finished 11th. 10 got seats so I just wasted a large chunk of run good!
Good thread this, the timing is spot on.
As far as “Variance” goes, my thoughts on this subject is - The trouble with variance is Humans are involved in the factoring process, humans have emotions, and lots of other distractions which will skew personal results.
Sure, if everyone on the site were playing optimum and comfortable in their surroundings with zero distractions we may get to the absolute perfect percentage of variance results.
How many times have you called an all in with say A8 and folded the same hand against the same opponent in the same circumstances?
For me, that is a crucial part of this discussion.
WARNING: Math included.
http://www.nsdpoker.com/2011/01/mtt-pros/#more-134
Your tournament main reminds me of another factor-luck that you have no control over.
Playing a qualifier for the WSOP Main some years ago. 3 left, 2 seats. Me-60% of the chips, other 2 20% each. I must have been getting good cards, because I was raising every hand
1 of the other 2 shoves on me. I have A7s. I was sure I was behind. But I could afford to call, and I knew the other player (the 1 not in the hand). So I called. And won (he had 88). Point is, the other player has gone on to achieve a great deal in the game. In part, because of variance in a hand he wasn't even in.
This comment has intrigued me, variance effect in hands your not involved in. I suppose this happens in DYMs and MTTs more often than I though.
Which leads me to, I forget what it was leading me to, but I'll edit it in when I remember.
I am absolutely certain that if I play without distraction my results are far better.
When I started playing on Sky I used to play in my office, without distractions, I did much better then. However in order to maintain household peace and tranquillity I now play in the front room, on a laptop, with the TV on and frequent interruptions from my other half (love her to bits but she is not exactly a fan of poker) and the various cats that have been known to just jump up onto the laptop and make random folds/calls/change of websites etc. My results since making that change a couple of years ago have been, to say the least, disappointing.
Your tournament main reminds me of another factor-luck that you have no control over.
Playing a qualifier for the WSOP Main some years ago. 3 left, 2 seats. Me-60% of the chips, other 2 20% each. I must have been getting good cards, because I was raising every hand
1 of the other 2 shoves on me. I have A7s. I was sure I was behind. But I could afford to call, and I knew the other player (the 1 not in the hand). So I called. And won (he had 88). Point is, the other player has gone on to achieve a great deal in the game. In part, because of variance in a hand he wasn't even in. '
That's very true, Nowhere near that level but I did once freeroll into the last stages of the qualifier for the Vegas ME package on here. It was the bubble of the bubble so the bubble got £800 ish and every one else a seat to the £1,000 final. I actually wanted the £800 rather than the seat but it wasn't to be. There were 3 short stacks and I had the other table up watching the other shorties get all in and called I think it was 3 times, every time they won, if I remember correctly twice they were dominated. I then got so short I had to go for it and got no such luck.
Isn't it amazing how we remember the bad beats far easier than the good runs, even we're not in the hands.
For balance, I did once run really well in a main on here and actually won it, I remember having A7 twice and it beating hands it was dominated by, I think the standard of play was poorer back then though.
The next time I played, a few days later, I won the mini, so there's even a bad beat there (in my mind) because if I'd won them both on the same night I would have been £5K better off! The glass is always half empty you see.