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Thoughts on hand please.

waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,482
edited May 2020 in Poker Chat
I'll post this here if that's ok, as the Poker clinic doesn't seem to get many visitors these days.

It's my exit hand from tonight's mini and I'm pretty annoyed/unsure with myself.

Sitting 9/30 well into the money and I hate this exit as it just feels like a mistake.
PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
scotty77Small blind2500.002500.00256275.00
MRBLEWPIEBig blind5000.007500.0064317.50
Your hole cards
  • K
  • Q
YoozerFold
davon121Fold
waller02Raise10000.0017500.00159188.36
ALLINCOVIDCall10000.0027500.0077455.25
scotty77Raise32500.0060000.00223775.00
MRBLEWPIEFold
waller02Call25000.0085000.00134188.36
ALLINCOVIDCall25000.00110000.0052455.25
Flop
  • 9
  • 5
  • 10
scotty77Check
waller02Check
ALLINCOVIDCheck
Turn
  • Q
scotty77Bet55000.00165000.00168775.00
waller02Call55000.00220000.0079188.36
ALLINCOVIDAll-in52455.25272455.250.00
River
  • Q
scotty77All-in168775.00441230.250.00
waller02All-in79188.36520418.610.00
scotty77Unmatched bet89586.64430831.9789586.64
scotty77Show
  • 10
  • 10
waller02Show
  • K
  • Q
ALLINCOVIDShow
  • Q
  • K
scotty77WinFull House, 10s and Queens430831.97520418.61
Pre - KQs is pretty, but should I just be folding pre to the 3b?

Turn - A 1/2 pot bet into 2 players and I'm not loving life at all. I block KJ which gets there, he can have sets, AQ and draws. I call. As does the the 3rd guy, for his whole stack. Alarm bells are ringing.

River - I hit trips and Scotty jams. He is never bluffing here is he? Or is he with the other player all in on the turn?

Thoughts wanted please. Which street have I butchered the most? Should I just be folding river and trying to spin up the 14bb? Should I be folding pre? The turn? Or is it even Ok and just unlucky (which I doubt).

Comments

  • trevil25trevil25 Member Posts: 98
    its always easy in hindsight, if you would of had a small bet after flop scotty would of jammed to get rid of flush or run,but as the hand panned out i dont think you could get away from it,even at the start of the hand after scotty re-raised most would of prob gone all in so same result in the end.just one of those annoying ways of going out,better than getting binked with rag ace
  • Sunday8pmSunday8pm Member Posts: 58
    waller02 said:

    I'll post this here if that's ok, as the Poker clinic doesn't seem to get many visitors these days.

    It's my exit hand from tonight's mini and I'm pretty annoyed/unsure with myself.

    Sitting 9/30 well into the money and I hate this exit as it just feels like a mistake.

    PlayerActionCardsAmountPotBalance
    scotty77Small blind2500.002500.00256275.00
    MRBLEWPIEBig blind5000.007500.0064317.50
    Your hole cards
    • K
    • Q
    YoozerFold
    davon121Fold
    waller02Raise10000.0017500.00159188.36
    ALLINCOVIDCall10000.0027500.0077455.25
    scotty77Raise32500.0060000.00223775.00
    MRBLEWPIEFold
    waller02Call25000.0085000.00134188.36
    ALLINCOVIDCall25000.00110000.0052455.25
    Flop
    • 9
    • 5
    • 10
    scotty77Check
    waller02Check
    ALLINCOVIDCheck
    Turn
    • Q
    scotty77Bet55000.00165000.00168775.00
    waller02Call55000.00220000.0079188.36
    ALLINCOVIDAll-in52455.25272455.250.00
    River
    • Q
    scotty77All-in168775.00441230.250.00
    waller02All-in79188.36520418.610.00
    scotty77Unmatched bet89586.64430831.9789586.64
    scotty77Show
    • 10
    • 10
    waller02Show
    • K
    • Q
    ALLINCOVIDShow
    • Q
    • K
    scotty77WinFull House, 10s and Queens430831.97520418.61
    Pre - KQs is pretty, but should I just be folding pre to the 3b?

    Turn - A 1/2 pot bet into 2 players and I'm not loving life at all. I block KJ which gets there, he can have sets, AQ and draws. I call. As does the the 3rd guy, for his whole stack. Alarm bells are ringing.

    River - I hit trips and Scotty jams. He is never bluffing here is he? Or is he with the other player all in on the turn?

    Thoughts wanted please. Which street have I butchered the most? Should I just be folding river and trying to spin up the 14bb? Should I be folding pre? The turn? Or is it even Ok and just unlucky (which I doubt).
    Think pre is an easy fold for a few reasons - don’t think Ryan is ever gona be getting too OOL 3 handed here, you have a short stack who could go broke and earn you a ladder & your hand doesn’t play great post flop 3 handed against a 3b range. If your spidey senses are tingling pre then a shove is better than a call but I wouldn’t say it’s close to being an automatic shove.

    As played flop is standard, turn is a clear fold though, I can’t think of a hand Ryan might have that you are in good shape against. You also have an (assumed) loose cannon behind who can show up with better than KQ.

  • NOSTRINOSTRI Member Posts: 1,423
    edited May 2020
    You'd probably prefer answers from better players but I don't think you did much wrong here. It's a pretty ugly spot.

    Calling the 3b pre seems fine. Don't think you should fold turn. His value range is mostly beating you but it seems reasonable to expect one of the site's better regs to have some 3b bluffs too, like suited Ax/Kx hands, but that is probably less likely multi-way. So you're behind most of his value range but the suited Ax hands with two possible flush draws would probably take a similar line. Blocking a lot of the straights is nice too.

    The second Q on the river makes you having one less likely, so he might fire a missed flush draw a second time trying to get a T to fold? AA/KK might think they're ahead for the same reason. AJs and JJ that missed their straight draw could take a similar line maybe? Hard to say what he's doing with those kind of hands at this point, might be being really optimistic here.

    Tough one. Really curious to see what better people think about it. I know I'm probably playing it exactly the same way you did.
  • bbMikebbMike Member Posts: 3,358
    Problem with the river is that he’s shoving into a pretty dry side pot, so you’d think he’d want at least some value to go for the bounty rather than missed flushes? JJ KK AA that we beat? But there’s also not much we lose to, AQ and TT? Tough one by the river I think.
  • EnutEnut Member Posts: 2,630
    I think a fold to the 3b pre is the best answer. KQ is often in a world of pain against a 3b range and although it can be opponent dependent I think a general rule of folding KQ pre to a reraise probably saves a lot more money than it loses.

    As played I would like to think I can fold the river, but I wouldn't.
  • EssexphilEssexphil Member Posts: 5,121
    Fold pre? Player dependant. It's close. I'm sure I tend to get sticky with the suited KQ's.

    The rest plays itself.
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,482
    edited May 2020
    Was awkward, especially 5 hours in at 1:30am.

    I ended up staying up for the best part of an hour afterwards running through the hand in my head as it was bugging me. It felt like a mistake in game, but I was really unsure if it was hence posting it on here.

    I would be folding KQo fwiw but KQs seemed a bit too pretty to fold although I do get the point @Sunday8pm makes regarding Ryan not being too OOL 3 handed with a short stack.

    On the turn, although really not loving life, I was thinking along the same lines as @NOSTRI. By the river it sank in that there is a strong chance I'm a goner!

  • Phantom66Phantom66 Member Posts: 5,539
    You can't be a fan of PNL and James Browning or you would have folded pre.

    "KQ rules in the land of the unraised pot"
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,482
    edited May 2020
    Phantom66 said:

    You can't be a fan of PNL and James Browning or you would have folded pre.

    "KQ rules in the land of the unraised pot"

    No that passed me by. Was literally just talking about that the other day too, I should have listened!
  • loosecamelloosecamel Member Posts: 147
    WP for the run, UL for this spot. I think pre we can just fold this to a 3b, with a decent stacksize I think we should try and minimise difficult decisions, and KQ in a 3bp against a big stack will certainly put us in a difficult spot. As played, I wouldn't mind a 25-35k bet on the flop and pray for a J turn/fold to reshoves. If SB is 3b'ing with a bluff Axs/Kxs etc and he's checking the flop, he'll more than likely just chuck 'em in the bin after a bet 3 handed and the 3rd player can have a wide range here. Having said that, I think a check on flop is also fine. Again, as played, turn and river play themselves I think, can't fold turn, and even though it looks completely value-heavy with a shove into a sidepot, are we even allowed to fold trips in 3b pot when given roughly 5:1? I doubt it, I would be sighing, eye-rolling and then clicking that call button.
  • Sunday8pmSunday8pm Member Posts: 58
    waller02 said:

    Was awkward, especially 5 hours in at 1:30am.

    I ended up staying up for the best part of an hour afterwards running through the hand in my head as it was bugging me. It felt like a mistake in game, but I was really unsure if it was hence posting it on here.

    I would be folding KQo fwiw but KQs seemed a bit too pretty to fold although I do get the point @Sunday8pm makes regarding Ryan not being too OOL 3 handed with a short stack.

    On the turn, although really not loving life, I was thinking along the same lines as @NOSTRI. By the river it sank in that there is a strong chance I'm a goner!

    I do think Ryan is going to be fairly straight up 3 handed and these stack sizes as he has a pretty good grasp of ICM. I’m guessing as the big stack he will attack some spots which look inviting but to me this just doesn’t look like one of those ‘spots’. The unpredictability of the short stack should make him fairly honest. River is grim as how the hand plays out you don’t lose to much, but Ryan will have a good idea that the board massively favours your range based on previous actions so hard for him to show up with AA/KK here. FWIW I don’t think he’s ever bluffing.
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,482
    miniman88 said:

    Pre flop: I think all 3 options are on the table tbh and I'm not sure what is the best. I prefer 4b ripping out of the 3 tho, we block KK/QQ/AK/AQ and unblock some suited wheel Ax bluffs that Scotty can have and although I think Scotty is more on the tight side, COVID probs shoves all his strong hands pre, Scotty will know that and will have some hands that are happy to 3b get it in vs bb and bttn but fold to you here. Also I'm assuming COVID is a fun player so I'm taking AA/KK out his range here that otherwise be a decent spot to flat with and also let's say he has a hand like QJs, if you flat the 3b he might just be like meh let's stick the rest in instead of flatting and then you're sad. COVID should have hands that fold pre here for sure or flat at worse so flatting KQs in position to scotty here is fine.

    Turn: It doesn't feel great even though we have top pair and a gutshot, Scotty seems comfortable enough to now start betting half pot on a board that's very dicey for him. QQ cbets 100% of the time and I don't see a world where 99 doesn't either shove pre and/or doesn't cbet. All his heart draws are happily cbetting and calling off aswell. I think his value range at this point is AQ/KQ/KJ/TT and he does have AA/KK that checks flop sometimes but Scotty probs auto cbets all overpairs in this spot. We're pretty crushed against a good portion of that. The hands we're ahead of here for me is AKcc and AJcc which is 2 combos, there's probs some more hands but can't see Scotty getting too out of line at this point and we've also got to worry about a player behind whose range has probably hit this board. It's easy for me to say seeing the hands but if I was in the moment and saw the half pot from Scotty, that would be screaming AQ/KJ/TT to me and I would be really sad at this point but I probs end up sigh calling turn and when COVID calls it off we're not looking good. It's tough to think about a hand in depth on Sky in the moment with the short timebanks, especially if you're multi-tabling with loads of hand alerts popping off.

    River: The river is definitely the easiest decision of the three. Clear fold. You said "He is never bluffing here is he? or is he with the other player all in on the turn" The answer is he is literally never bluffing here, ever. The main pot (270,000) was made on the turn with the 3 of you, on the river there is a 5,000 sidepot with you and Scotty, pretty much a dry side pot. For him to be bluffing he must be confident that you fold a better hand than him but has COVID beat a % of the time aswell for it to be worthwhile...maybe like AJs, getting you to fold Tx and maybe COVID has some flush draw type hands that Scotty is ahead of but it must be close to 0% chance Scotty would do that. Does he shove worse for value? no, JJ cbets 100%, AA x/c's x/f's river I guess. QJs?? seems veryyyyy unlikely and thin. I'm just trying to create a world where we have the best hand here at this point haha. River feels bad but it's just always AQ/KJ and TT isn't it and nothing else.

    It feels like we should be getting away from the hand for sure at some point during the hand.

    That's a great post, thanks @miniman88
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    edited May 2020
    I generally think this is a fold pre, but especially so here, given the stack of the player behind (75k).

    While it turned out that this player DID stick in 33% of his stack to call the 25k 3-bet, we all know that won't happen often.

    A decent amount of time when calling the 25k, you'll see a shove from the 75k stack (especially as you're already in the money), which is then likely to see you shut-out by the 3-bettor.

    This would be my concern, the likelihood of merely donating 25k without getting to see a flop.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    edited May 2020
    As a side note, how blessed is Scotty, here?

    TT vs KQ (x2), flops a set and it runs out with the case two queens.

    The last time something such as that happened to me, the buy-in was in florins!

    ;)
  • FeelGroggyFeelGroggy Member Posts: 795
    Almost feels like a waste of time to reply because @miniman88 gave a really good analysis but here goes.

    I think this is a situation where Scotty won't have any 3bet bluffs preflop, but he might 3bet a wider value range, hands like 7s, AJ possibly KQ to fold vs you and get it in vs the flatter. The more peely the flatter is the wider he'll be. I think hands like KQo you need to either shove or fold (probably mostly fold) but you can probably get away with peeling KQs although it really isn't a breathtaking situation. Especially when Covid could just back-raise all in and Scotty will probably shove every time. It's probably a good spot to flat Aces.

    On the flop I actually think you get a really good situation to bet a small size with your hand as an exploit, although I think in reality your hand is probably meant to check. I think Scotty is going to be unbalanced here and pile all his overpairs and check AK AQ AJ stuff to fold. Maybe he checks aces and tens exactly. I think if you bet even really really small like 20k-25k and it folds to him there is nothing he can do with those hands except fold, which is a huge result for you. You have a really easy bet fold spot vs Scotty and if Covid puts it in you're equity is gonna be fine vs him anyway.

    The turn as played isn't ideal but I think it's a spot you just have to fold. Scotty knows how well this queen connects with both your ranges and I agree with mini that the only hands he might consider bluffing is exactly AJc and AKc and even then they might check. It feels like you don't have much fold equity as Scotty on this card.

    River is also just a fold, I think best case scenario we chop with Scotty and that's assuming he 3bets KQ preflop, which he might not do and plays it this way postflop which again he might not. Scotty is never bluffing here for sure, he might not even be ever bluffing turn.
  • waller02waller02 Member Posts: 8,482
    edited May 2020
    Thanks for all the detailed replies.

    That hand was the very last hand of my session last night at nearly 2am and I found it a bit difficult to switch off and get to sleep as I knew I had made an error, or even multiple errors. It's always more annoying to bust through your own doing rather than a bad beat or cooler.

    Yeah I felt I'd played it all wrong but I wasn't 100% sure what my approach should have been pre flop, on the flop and on the turn. I knew straight away that my river call was the biggest error, I had alarm bells ringing but still ended up pressing the call button.

    Thanks again all.
  • mushroom1mushroom1 Member Posts: 645
    edited May 2020

    Especially when Covid could just back-raise all in and Scotty will probably shove every time. It's probably a good spot to flat Aces.

    I didn't actually think of this when talking about the likelihood of a smaller stack shoving (above).

    The idea of flatting AA is a great shout.
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