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|Your hole cards|
As played, after you check, you put yourself in a difficult position come the river. I'm always calling flop and turn, his sizing on the river does slightly polarize him to jack, flush or bluff (e.g KQ, 10 9, 8 9)-
One thing of note - mr fuzzy is a good player, and as you have a "capped" range here (you can't have the nuts) he may be turning more hands into bluffs than a less experienced player - i also don't think he would ever expect you to have kings here. Blind v Blind I may be tempted to call - but i think given his sizings, this was probably the right fold.
Tough spot though, good hand to post! - cbet will have helped you here.
Q what are you gonna do with 2 pair and set on flop, are you gonna X/C any?
I suggest you do it sometimes, JT and 88 are decent choices.. Keeping some nutted value combos in your X/C range helps to protect your KK
Also I suggest you cbet a combo like QQ on flop, the idea is QQ is a really vunerable over pair QQ with club is a great choice to knowing their is not gonna be as many scare cards and is ahead of Jx.
When you put it all together you can now fold KK on a turn card like that turn no problem because it's gonna be sitting right at the very bottom of your value range, if he's bluffing good for him you don't mind because you have lots of better value combos.
MAking yourself capped and having plenty of OP and lack of nutted hands if I'm sitting in IP with T9 then I will be bluffing because I myself know that board texture is really scary, I have lots of nutted hands whilst villian has a really capped range of OP which he isn't happy to call down especially not when scare cards like J, club Q 9 or 7 come.
I do think he CAN turn those into bluffs yes - not all the time, but where he has a range advantage on that board some players may be more inclined to go for it.
But as I said - i think this was the right fold, not sure i could let it go myself until the river though!
What's clear we are not cbetting much nor are we X/R much
This is our theory defensive range on flop blue X/R red X/F green X/C
on turn our X/C range does still have KK and we X/F those on river.
This is our theory X/C range on turn
The high card calls are all FD
this is the cbet and X range.
Looking at it myself I would say this is flop is one we can X 100% of our range depending how aggressive we think villian is. ONe thing's for sure no villian is gonna stab his range the way GTO does. for starters GTO has villian stabbing small PP with a club IP but we ourselves know villians won't do that, also GTO has villian X back some sets himself but we see our villian probe most sets on flop
Getting a perfect cbet and X range on this flop will be super hard, some strength we should bet and others we shouldn't what's most important is we do not make many cbets on this flop OOP and must keep some nutted value in our checking range.
Maybe you could have folded pre here instead 🤭
Player Action Cards Amount Pot Balance
Jac35 Small blind 75.00 75.00 2840.00
danielld9 Big blind 150.00 225.00 1575.00
Your hole cards
Aerionz All-in 1580.00 1805.00 0.00
Jac35 Call 1505.00 3310.00 1335.00
Jac35 Win Two Pairs, Kings and 3s 3310.00 4645.00
I like how you took it so well though
erionz: what a joke
00:19Aerionz: first time i shove
Aerionz: i run into kk
Jac35: it happens
Aerionz: i hope u lose anyway
I think it all depends on how villain constructs their bluffing range on the river. Some weaker players will barrel away with KQ and AQ on this river, even though they are not great bluff combos (blocking your AK, AQ and KQ auto folds). If you think villain is aggro and not thinking on this deep a level, you can maybe find a call because that is a lot of combos. If villain gives those up, it's hard to find a lot of natural bluffs. There is a lot of value he can have, not just flushes, straights and boats, but also a bunch of trips combos.
Meanwhile, because this is a flop which you should be checking most of the time, your range is nicely protected and you can still have a lot of very strong hands. JT, AJ, KJ, QJ would all take this line. I'd be more tempted to check raise 88 and TT, but you could have slowplayed them sometimes as well.
Tbh I like your line and think I would probably also find the fold on river. If I had the King of clubs I would be more tempted to call.
I was having a pretty bad night myself so it irritated at the time
I was also drunk
Gl at the tables
If anyone is gonna play T9 as a bluff they'd want to go B33%.X.B120% or B33%.X.R . The idea is we fire our first bet to defend ourselves from over cards knowing we have decent equity when called. Then on turn we slow down otherwise OOP would be able to play all his nutted equity as a bluff catch. then on river we will evaluate how well that card favours our range how much thin value we think villian bets and decide from their whether or not we can bluff raise river over bet bluff river or should X for SD
The overall idea is we deny equity and keep range wide on flop, we punish people who are not gonna play nutted equity strong and on river we do the bluff knowing villian's checking range will be quite wide when called and his river betting range should have more thin value and bluffs allowing us to pull a +EV bluff raise knowing we should still have some nutted equity.
When he goes big his range is gonna be more polarized being made up of mostly nutted value hands and draws as a bluff Therefore we are gonna call most our hands.
When the river card completes flush we now know most his bluffing range has improved and he has plenty of value. If we gonna call any OP it would be AA with Ac knowing that blocks combos like AJ and nut flush but it blocks non of his KQ and I imagine he will have X back some FH combos on turn.
Honestly though, these hands are so worthless to study, first level of an mtt, there's literally no value in these pots. When studying mtt's you should be focussing on big bounty spots, changing your play on bubbles, icm/ft spots.
v most including randoms. Don't hate 100% check range that one @craigcu12 posted looks decent. If villian is suspectedly flatting wide against us i think cbet line will be higher ev thought.
@miniman88 what do you do when you're like me and too busto to afford icmizer? we study these spots trololol